Tornado Warning 90, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

 - Severe weather is expected through Monday, with significant
   tornadoes possible on Sunday and Monday.

 - Shower/storm chances return end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

As of the 2PM, surface observations show a weak surface low has
drifted south to near Borger,TX with a warm front extending from
Elk City to Fort Cobb to Washington to Ada. A very warm, moist air
mass is in place south of the front, with dewpoint temperatures
of 77 degrees observed at Burneyville and Durant and even 73
degrees at Seymour. A few thunderstorms have already developed
over western north Texas, but have been slow to strengthen and
there have been a few CI attempts over southeastern Oklahoma.

The mid-level shortwave is moving over southwestern New Mexico and
is prog'd to reach the Amarillo area around 21Z. The front is
anticipated to move slowly northward with an extremely unstable
atmosphere south of the front, which will foster very large hail
potential with a low tornado potential near and along the warm
front. In addition, very large DCAPE values will lend to damaging
wind gusts of 70-80+mph.

While the precise location of the front later this afternoon and
evening is somewhat uncertain, models have indicated that the
front should be near or just north of the I-40 corridor. Due to
the broader baroclinic zone typical of warm fronts (vs the sharper
zone with cold fronts), this creates a broader zone of problematic
storm impacts and therefore hazards will not be confined to a
narrow zone. Latest mesoanalysis indicates extreme instability
is already in place south of the front, with a maximum of 4500 to
5000 J/kg of MLCAPE over south-central Oklahoma along with bulk
shear at 50 knots. While we cannot pinpoint where these storms
will develop with high accuracy, everyone should be ready for the
potential for significant severe weather impacts - with 2 to 4
inch hail and damaging winds (70-80+mph) the most likely hazards.
There is a low risk of tornadoes - especially near the front and
triple point.

We should start seeing additional storm development with better
organization as the upper wave gets closer (within the next few
hours). Storms are expected to exit our area by midnight.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Another potent shortwave, that is currently moving ashore
northern California, will track east-southeastward and the center
of this system is prog'd to reach southern Utah by Sunday
morning. The center of the mid-level trough associated height
falls swings across the central Rockies during the day and rapid
lee-cyclogenesis yields a 990MB surface low over southeastern
Colorado by mid-afternoon. The resulting mass response will
increase southerly winds to 20-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph
possible. This increased low-level flow will prompt renewed
moisture advection over Oklahoma with dewpoint temperatures rising
into the low 70's over much of the area by afternoon.

The primary mid-level jet max reaches passes over northeastern New
Mexico and reaches the western Panhandles by mid-afternoon as a
secondary jet max approaches from west Texas. The primary jet will
push the dryline to the western Oklahoma state line, and the
secondary jet could cause the dryline to bulge over southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas mid- to late-afternoon. Although
mostly cloudy skies are anticipated east of the dryline, CIN should
begin to erode over W/SW portions of the area by mid-day. Severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday afternoon, with very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and significant tornadoes possible
- especially across north-central Oklahoma.

Monday continues to be the most concerning day for significant
tornado potential as the H250 and H500 jets overspread Oklahoma,
which will add 50-60 knots of 0-6km bulk shear to an extremely
unstable environment. An outbreak of tornadic supercell thunderstorms
are possible along the dryline by Monday afternoon west of I-35
and track quickly northeastward (34-45 mph) into central Oklahoma.
Storm activity should exit our area by late Monday night.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The upper trough crosses passes over the plains and drives the
associated cold front into Oklahoma on Monday night into Tuesday
morning with northwest surface winds expected on Tuesday and
possibly into Wednesday following a reinforcing cold front. High
temperatures will dip into the 70's/80's on Tuesday with warmer
conditions returning end of next week as a mid-level ridge
approaches and winds veer to the southeast. We should remain dry
Tuesday into Thursday, but low POPs return late Thursday and
Friday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Lingering stratus producing broken ceilings across southeast
Oklahoma will keep terminal KDUA under MVFR conditions through 00Z
while the rest of our terminals are most likely to remain under
VFR conditions at least up through 06Z. However, most terminals
have a 30% chance for TSRA between 20Z-04Z as a warm front lifts
advecting moist unstable air. Should any TSRA move over our
terminals they could briefly reduce to MVFR conditions due to a
lower ceiling and reduced visibilities in rain. Terminal KDUA has
the highest probability for TSRA as a TEMPO is in place there.
Ceiling may start lowering due to increasing stratus between
06-12Z potentially reducing our terminals to IFR conditions. As
the warm front lifts during the next few hours, east surface winds
will be veering southeast by 21Z becoming nearly due south by
16Z. A moderate low-level jet will develop overnight by 06Z
resulting in low-level wind shear across some of our terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  64  84  69 /  40  40  40  20
Hobart OK         88  64  88  65 /  30  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  67  89  70 /  40  10  20  20
Gage OK           85  57  91  55 /  20  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     80  60  81  66 /  10  70  70  40
Durant OK         89  68  84  70 /  70  30  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68

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