Tornado Warning 165, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Chance for severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning with all
  hazards possible, including flooding. A Flood Watch is in
  effect from 7 PM this evening through 10 AM Sunday morning.

- Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next
  week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Morning convection is continuing to move east-southeast and
diminishing with time. Additional storms are possible this afternoon
across central and northern Oklahoma. Confidence remains low on
exact location and timing for storm development this
afternoon/evening. Lingering cloud cover could play a role in
keeping the atmosphere stable during much of the afternoon hours
across northern Oklahoma with the best chances across western and
into central Oklahoma where skies will remain clear to broken and
temperatures are warming into the 80s to 90s. MLCAPE >3000 J/kg and
effective shear of 25-30 knots supports severe storms capable of
very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Several outflow boundaries
from the morning convection is draped across western and central
Oklahoma just north of I-40 and will be the area to watch for storm
initiation this afternoon. With the presence of the surface
boundary, any storm that latches along the boundary could also
produce a tornado.

Higher confidence exists for storm development across northern and
central Oklahoma overnight tonight with a shortwave disturbance in
the northerly flow aloft. This activity will begin late this evening
across Kansas and continue to push south through the night,
developing into an mesoscale convective system (MCS), similar to
this morning's convection. All hazards are possible, but damaging
winds and hail remain the biggest threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

By daybreak Sunday, the MCS will still be pushing south across the
forecast area. Additional storms may also move into western Oklahoma
from West Texas and congeal with the already occurring MCS. Thus, a
line of storms from western Oklahoma to central/eastern Oklahoma may
exist by the morning hours Sunday. Similar to today, main concern
will be large hail and damaging winds. However, flooding will also
be of concern with PWATs near 1.5-2" which will lead to high
rainfall rates and coupled with slower storm motion will bring an
increased risk for flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for
7 PM Saturday night through 10 AM Sunday morning across north-
central and into central Oklahoma. Following morning convection,
clouds will limit daytime heating across much of the area and a
large portion of western Oklahoma will remain stable in the wake of
the MCS. Temperatures will still warm into the 80s to 90s across
areas that receive sunshine.

With the upper ridge to our west over the southwest CONUS, northerly
flow aloft will bring a slight chance for some overnight convection
into northern Oklahoma from the Central Plains Sunday night into
Monday morning. Otherwise, precipitation chances will begin to
decrease Monday as 850mb temperatures increase and set up a capping
inversion through much of the day. Temperatures will warm into the
90s across much of western Oklahoma and into western north Texas
with a few areas approaching triple digits. Heat index values will
approach 100 to 105 degrees across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The heat will continue build on Tuesday with the low-level
thermal ridge amplifying ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level
trough and attendant cold front.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become
suppressed to the southwest as the aforementioned trough moves
across the Plains. This may allow the weak cold front to advance
southward with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, it
appears the most significant cold air advection will remain to
the northeast of the area--so no appreciable cool down is
currently likely.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Overall clouds continue to disolve late this afternoon with VFR
conditions prevailing at all TAF sites. There is still an outside
chance of a storm or two forming near an outflow boundary in south
central and west central Oklahoma. Better thunderstorm chances
will be after 2-3Z, when scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across parts of north central Oklahoma (PNC/SWO). Shear
and instability appear sufficient for severe storms with strong
wind gusts and hail possible. It's possible the storms organize
into a thunderstorm complex. If this occurs, the storms will move
southerly and may impact much of central and southern Oklahoma
during the overnight and morning hours of Sunday. Still a little
uncertain how far west storms will develop, so more unsure about
WWR and CSM terminals. MVFR ceilings are certainly possible in the
wake of the system as well gusty winds. Most of the precipitation
is expected to end by 18Z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  71  92 /  30  30  20  10
Hobart OK         71  93  72  98 /  20  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  94  75  97 /  20  20  10   0
Gage OK           67  90  67  96 /  20  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     69  85  67  90 /  50  40  30   0
Durant OK         74  89  74  91 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-024>026.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06

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