Tornado Warning 116, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
650 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

 - Scattered storms tonight.

 - After a brief break, rain chances return late Wednesday /
   Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

The upper trough over the Rockies will move toward the Plains
today with lift increasing tonight. This will provide enough
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. The low-
level airmass has been worked over by this morning's storms, but
there has been enough instability redeveloping and deep-layer
wind shear is sufficient that some isolated strong or marginally
severe storms will be possible. But low-level wind shear is very
weak. Fortunately, the most likely area for showers and storms
tonight is not where we have seen the heaviest precipitation over
the last couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Precipitation chances will be low on Tuesday/Tuesday night after
the trough moves to the east. But the trough does not go too far
to the east at the main upper low sits and spins over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. An upper trough pivots southward around the
south side of the upper low on Wednesday/Wednesday night with
increasing precipitation chances again. With upslope low-level
winds over the central High Plains and this trough moving south, a
thunderstorm complex will likely develop over the eastern Colorado
Plains and move southeast bringing very high precipitation chances
into northwest Oklahoma Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

After our midweek respite, models suggest the next upper wave moving
through Wednesday night / Thursday with an associated front,
bringing medium rain chances with it. Too early to start diving into
mesoscale details as the synoptic level is still showing some model
variance.

After this wave moves through, we should get another dry period
before another shortwave possibly arrives sometime next weekend.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Low ceiling from persisting stratus will keep our terminals under
MVFR to periods of IFR conditions through much of the forecast
period. An upper trough will be digging through bringing a final
round of TSRA across our area generally between 03-10Z although
probabilities of any storms moving over our terminals is around
30%. Easterly surface winds will be gradually backing more
northeasterly as a warm front will be lifting although windspeeds
rather weak at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  60  73  58 /  50  50  10  10
Hobart OK         76  59  75  57 /  60  50  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  78  64  77  61 /  50  40   0  10
Gage OK           71  54  73  54 /  60  50  10  10
Ponca City OK     72  57  72  55 /  70  50  10   0
Durant OK         79  65  78  62 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
409 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

OKZ009-014-262145-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
409 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ellis
and central Roger Mills Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Reydon, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Reydon, Strong City, Crawford, and Roll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 9991 3575 9994 3599 9950 3569 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 247DEG 33KT 3570 9982

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
718 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

OKZ009-270045-
Ellis OK-
718 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Ellis
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Shattuck, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shattuck, Arnett, and Gage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 10000 3639 9968 3615 9965 3611 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 253DEG 28KT 3623 9996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30