Tornado Warning 114, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue into the holiday weekend with a
chance of severe storms each day

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold
front Sunday into Monday

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

At the time of this writing, we're seeing some elevated convection
in central Oklahoma, ahead of the main complex which is expected to
arrive at the Kansas / Oklahoma border around 2-3AM. The main
complex of storms will sweep through north central and central
Oklahoma into the morning hours with damaging wind gusts being the
primary risk. Southwest extent of this complex is somewhat uncertain.

The aforementioned complex is expected to leave an outflow boundary
in its wake, which in addition to a sharpening frontal boundary and
a dryline in west Texas will provide a focus for more storm
development later today. South of the front, strong instability
(4000-5000 joules) and deep layer shear (40-50 knots) will support
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a low
tornado threat (particularly along any boundaries). Where those
boundaries will end up is uncertain being dependent on effects from
the earlier MCS. Additionally, upper level support appears marginal
which may limit storm coverage.

As we move into tonight, the low level jet ramps up and isentropic
ascent gets going north of the front, allowing for widespread
showers to develop across northern Oklahoma into Kansas. Again, weak
ridging may put something of a dampener on these chances (several of
the CAMs keep this activity either only along our northern periphery
or outside of our forecast area).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The forecast for Sunday and Monday is messy, but stormy. Upper
pattern becomes more southwesterly with several waves moving
through. Some lingering boundaries will be around, but details will
depend on previous convection. Sunday once again shows strong
instability and shear, giving a comparable severe risk to Saturday
(at least initially). As convection becomes more widespread, heavy
rainfall will start to become more of a concern Sunday night into
Monday.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Once the front is through Monday, precipitation chances taper off
for a bit. Temperatures will be cooler (70s) through midweek. Upper
air pattern continues to look fairly dynamic.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Scattered storms have developed across central Oklahoma and are
moving eastward through the next few hours. Meanwhile, a line of
storms will be pushing south into northern Oklahoma during the
early morning hours with highest confidence in timing and impacts
at KPNC/KSWO. Lower confidence exists on how far west storms will
develop along the line into central Oklahoma, but KOKC/KOUN have
a chance for early morning storms. As the storms approach in a few
hours, amendments to timing may be made. Expect large hail and
damaging wind gusts, along with lightning as the main hazards.
Otherwise, low-level wind shear is possible at all sites through
the morning hours. Additional storms may develop during the
afternoon hours late today, but these chances are conditional on
the outcome of storms early this morning. Thus, no mention was
given at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  69  86  64 /  30  30  50  80
Hobart OK         96  68  88  62 /  10  30  50  80
Wichita Falls TX  97  73  93  68 /  10  20  20  70
Gage OK           88  61  79  55 /  10  30  30  80
Ponca City OK     78  63  76  60 /  50  50  60  90
Durant OK         89  73  91  69 /  20  20  20  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
320 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     Hail             3 SW Pink               35.23N 97.16W
05/24/2025  M1.75 Inch       Cleveland          OK   Broadcast Media

            Golf ball sized hail reported south of SH9
            at 192nd Avenue SE.

&&

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     Hail             5 NE Etowah             35.19N 97.12W
05/24/2025  E1.25 Inch       Pottawatomie       OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     Hail             2 N Norman              35.25N 97.45W
05/24/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cleveland          OK   Public

&&

KS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>