Severe Thunderstorm Warning 921, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather
   are expected Thursday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts
   are the main severe hazard.

 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An afternoon and evening featuring a multi-hazard risk (heat &
severe weather) is apparent across the forecast area today. A belt
of generally weak and variable upper-level flow continues across the
Southern Plains, on the periphery of a subtropical ridge across the
Southeast. Near the surface, a weak cold front continues to meander
into portions of far northern Oklahoma, currently extending from
~Plainview, TX to Gage, OK to west of Pratt, KS.

The current expectation is for the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms in vicinity of the aforementioned front by
~3-4 PM this afternoon. Provided a very hot, generally dry and
well-mixed boundary layer (contributing to low-level lapse rates
>8.0 C/km), along with weak wind shear, the background
environment will support several strong to potentially severe
(50-70 mph) downburst wind events with convection through the
evening. While at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is
expected to continue well after dark, the risk for severe weather
(beyond a very isolated/transient concern) should cease by 10-11
PM Thursday.

Will also monitor the potential for a localized heavy rain/flooding
concern across northern Oklahoma from the mid-evening into early
morning hours of Friday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and
exceeding 2.0" (greater than climatological maximum) are
commonplace across short-range guidance this morning, and with
potential for multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms, some risk
for flooding is apparent. The expected scattered nature of
convection (i.e., will "breaks"/gaps in precipitation occur?) and
antecedent conditions limit overall predictability of such a
threat tonight.

While the risk for thunderstorms will be confined mainly for
areas north/west of Interstate 44, most areas will experience
dangerously hot afternoon and early evening conditions. A notable
low-level thermal ridge looks to establish across western zones
by this afternoon, and a corridor of triple-digit ambient
temperatures is probable from western-north Texas into north-
central Oklahoma. Similarly hot temperatures will be possible in
the moisture axis across southeastern Oklahoma, where the highest
heat indices (perhaps near/exceeding 110-degrees) will be
possible. A Heat Advisory continues until 8 PM for all but the
far northwestern corner of the area.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
towards daybreak Friday morning, possibly in an expansive profile
from central into western and northern Oklahoma. While severe
weather potential is low, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be
risks with this activity. A gradual transition towards drier weather
is expected into the morning and afternoon. We have added low
mentions for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon from
western-north Texas into north-central Oklahoma, along a lingering
(weak) trough axis, and with potential for remnant outflow
boundaries/weak surface front(s). Once again, strong to potentially
severe downburst wind gusts would be possible during the demise of
stronger thunderstorm cores during this time.

Heat will remain a concern on Friday, with potential for continued
triple-digit ambient temperatures across the southern one-half of
the area. This is also were heat indices look to climb near and
above 105-degrees. As such, a Heat Advisory has been posted for
portions of western-north Texas and southern Oklahoma from 1 PM
to 8 PM on Friday.

Saturday: A more solidly hot and dry period of weather is
currently advertised by Saturday, as the subtropical ridge to our
southeast begins to retrograde. Continued triple-digit
temperatures across the western portion of the area, with
>105-degree heat indices across much of the area are likely into
the afternoon and early evening. Additional heat headlines are
likely for at least a portion of the forecast area.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The general consensus, especially from Sunday into the early
portions of next week, is for persistent hot and dry afternoons
across the area. Grand ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge
expanding and slowly translating eastward across the midsection
of the CONUS during this time. Ambient temperatures in the
upper-90s to low-100s with heat indices near/above 105-degrees
will be likely and heat headlines are likely to continue in some
capacity.

More uncertainty in the pattern and associated sensible weather
outcomes arrives by this time next week, when some guidance shows
a slow breakdown in the ridge/and or greater northwest upper flow
aloft. This would allow for low PoP chances to return to portions
of the area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of western and
northern Oklahoma late this afternoon through the overnight
period. Strong downburst winds will be possible in the vicinity of
these storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  76  95 /  20  20  20   0
Hobart OK         73 101  75 101 /  30  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 101  76  99 /  20  20  20   0
Gage OK           68  94  70  99 /  70  30  20   0
Ponca City OK     74  96  75  96 /  40  20  20   0
Durant OK         74  98  77  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ032>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
353 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

OKZ021-033-034-TXZ083-242130-
Harmon OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-Hardeman TX-
353 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Harmon, southwestern
Greer, southwestern Beckham and northern Hardeman Counties through
430 PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollis, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hollis, Gould, Vinson, Madge, and McKnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 10000 3507 9996 3493 9955 3451 9985
      3457 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 212DEG 22KT 3471 9992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SIX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

OKZ005-010-242130-
Woodward OK-Woods OK-
357 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Woods
and northeastern Woodward Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alabaster Caverns State Park, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Freedom, Alabaster Caverns State Park, and Camp Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9881 3654 9916 3664 9930 3669 9930
      3693 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 222DEG 8KT 3666 9919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SIX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
413 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

OKZ005>007-011-012-242200-
Major OK-Garfield OK-Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-Grant OK-
413 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Woods,
Alfalfa, southwestern Grant, northwestern Garfield and northeastern
Major Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carmen, moving northeast at 20 to 30 mph.  Other storms were located
near Hillsdale and Ingersoll.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Helena, Carmen, Goltry, Jet, Aline, Nash, Hillsdale,
Amorita, Byron, Lambert, Ingersoll, Great Salt Plains Lake, and
Driftwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9833 3675 9793 3656 9791 3640 9818
      3657 9859 3700 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 213DEG 26KT 3660 9847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SIX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
448 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

OKZ014-021-022-242230-
Roger Mills OK-Washita OK-Beckham OK-
448 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Washita, southern Roger Mills and Beckham Counties through 530 PM
CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Sayre, moving east at 15 mph. Other strong storms were
located near Dempsey, Reydon and Elk City.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elk City, Sayre, Cheyenne, Erick, Hammon, Carter, Reydon, Sweetwater,
Strong City, Retrop, Delhi, Berlin, and Dempsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 9940 3555 9938 3554 9936 3547 9936
      3547 9935 3516 9930 3510 9988 3566 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 253DEG 12KT 3529 9975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SIX