Severe Thunderstorm Warning 577, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

- Severe storms possible tonight along with the potential for
  heavy rainfall.

- Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy
  rainfall and severe weather possible.

- Much cooler weather expected Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Remainder of the afternoon will be mostly sunny, warm and dry.
However, further west convection is expected to develop across
eastern New Mexico into the western portions of the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles by mid-afternoon. This activity will then move
east, possibly reaching far western Oklahoma around 7pm. The storms
will initially have abundant instability, but only modest deep-layer
shear. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards,
especially across western sections of Oklahoma southward into
western north Texas. Anticipate that storms will gradually weaken as
they move east into central sections, although some severe storms
will remain possible.

With a modest llj and proximity of upper shortwave trough, expect
showers and thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours
across the area. Heavy rainfall and antecedent conditions may
result in flooding/flash flooding potential. Will Likely go with a
Flood Watch that starts tonight and goes through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Another disturbance will rotate around the base of the trough on
Tuesday. As this occurs a surface cold front will surge south into
the area. This front will be one of possible multiple boundaries for
additional storm development during the day and into the evening.
Although storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning and a few of
these could approach severe levels, more robust convection is
expected to develop from midday through the afternoon as instability
increases. These storms will eventually consolidate into clusters or
line segments/squall-line along the advancing cold front and will
pose mainly a hail and wind threat. Very heavy rainfall will also be
a concern

Front will continue to push south and east Tuesday night, eventually
pushing storms out of the area. Breezy north winds will accompany
the front with quite a bit cooler and drier overspreading the area.
Lows may actually drop into the upper 40s in northwest Oklahoma.
This will give a lull in the rain/storms for much of the day
Wednesday with much cooler than normal temperatures for early June
(highs in the 70s).

By Wednesday night will see precip chances return as another
shortwave begins to lift out of the southwest into southern Rockies
and into the southern/central Plains. This will bring at least a
chance of storms late Wednesday night across the west. Another Flood
Watch may be needed later this week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Active pattern will continue through the weekend into early next
week. Models show several shortwaves/disturbances that will move
through the flow leading to continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With the additional rainfall, flooding could become a
continuing concern throughout the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Scattered convection will introduce varied category during the
period. An initial convective line/cluster continues to near
western Oklahoma this evening, with potential for (brief)
intervals of lowered cigs and gusty/erratic winds into the initial
hours of Wednesday morning. Additional widespread thunderstorm
activity is expected by Tuesday afternoon into evening.

Outside of thunderstorms, gusty south-southeasterly winds and
broken coverage of mid/low-level clouds can be expected through
the period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  83  57  72 /  40  80  80  10
Hobart OK         68  86  55  75 /  70  80  40   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  87  60  76 /  60  80  80  10
Gage OK           64  83  48  76 /  70  60  20   0
Ponca City OK     70  84  55  75 /  60  90  60   0
Durant OK         73  87  66  80 /  10  30  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Wednesday morning
     for OKZ007-008-012-013-017>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Wednesday morning
     for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>