Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely later tonight and
possibly into Friday morning, with large hail, damaging wind gusts
and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Daily chances for storms (some severe) and heavy rain continue
through middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Clouds continue to clear across most of the area associated with
morning MCS now tracking into central/eastern TX, although a few
showers and storms have lingered in its wake. Questions remain
regarding quality of moisture and degree of instability that will
be available for storms this evening and overnight, but it does
appear we will have another round of storms this evening and
overnight across parts of the area. The main focus for convective
initiation will be the dryline in the panhandles and along a cold
front across southwest Kansas. We expect storms to develop along
these boundaries late this afternoon and track slowly
eastward/southeastward this evening into our area. Current
assumption is that sufficient heating and moisture recovery will
occur this afternoon for a corridor of weak-moderate instability
to develop across western OK/north TX, allowing for these storms
to sustain themselves for a time this evening before likely
weakening overnight. 30-40 knots of effective shear will be enough
to support multicell and supercell storm modes with an attendant
risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. There also remains a
window early-mid evening for a very low tornado risk out west as a
modest low-level jet develops, if supercells can remain surface
based. Potential exists for storms to grow upscale into one or
more clusters overnight which could bring a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts, but confidence decreases with eastward extent
regarding the amount of instability that will exist.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning and similar to
the past couple of days, morning convection will impact the
coverage and intensity of storms we see later on Friday. One
change from the previous days is that we will see a cold front
sink into our area, likely providing an additional focus for storm
development locally. Sufficient instability is forecast for
another risk for severe storms tomorrow, with heavy rainfall and
localized flooding possible as well.

The cold front will stall in our area on Saturday, but exactly where
this stall occurs is uncertain and likely to be influenced by
prior convection. As of now the most likely scenario places the
front near or south of I-40 by Saturday afternoon. Storm chances
are expected to be most numerous in the vicinity of the front, but
showers and storms are possible just about anywhere in our area
Saturday into Saturday night.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

The trough will reach the Great Basin by Sunday afternoon, and most
guidance shows broad southwest flow across the High Plains with a
shortwave ridge centered from Texas to the Missouri Valley. This
pattern might still be a bit too progressive given model biases, but
regardless the story becomes clear. There will be a deep low across
the Central/Northern High Plains with a sharp synoptic dryline
extending south from the dryline, and enough height falls in the
afternoon/evening will impinge on the dryline that at least a few
storms should form across the Plains. Storm coverage doesn't look
all that high, and in fact storms may remain off to our west
entirely on Sunday. But the environment needs to be watched closely
for severe weather.

The trough will eject into the Central Plains on Monday. Once again,
the dryline will extend synoptically southward from a low in the
Central Plains, but this time it will likely bisect our area. There
is some indication that dryline orientation might be more SSW-to-
NNE, which would call into question whether storms would initiate
down here. It might be one of those classic "we might not see any
storms at all, but if we do they will definitely be severe
supercells" kind of days.

The departure of the trough on Tuesday will bring another frontal
boundary toward our area. Definitely don't want to rule out a sneaky
severe risk from this, especially as the STJ kicks up and southwest
flow looks to remain in place. Once again, though, this occurs at
the end of a multiple-day sequence, and forecast clarity is lacking.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Several rounds of
showers/storms will be possible in the fa tonight into Friday but
there is some uncertainty as to where and/or timing especially for
Friday as what happens tonight will likely affect tomorrow. Not
everyone will see storms and/or multiple rounds of storms but
storms will be possible. If do get a storm strong variable winds
and/or hail could be possible with some of the activity. Winds
will shift Friday as a front moves into parts of the area. This is
in addition to any wind shifts from outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  77  60  70 /  40  60  70  80
Hobart OK         60  79  58  73 /  40  50  80  90
Wichita Falls TX  62  84  62  78 /  50  40  70  80
Gage OK           55  70  52  69 /  50  40  70  80
Ponca City OK     58  76  56  68 /  50  70  40  60
Durant OK         62  82  65  78 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
735 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Freedom           36.73N 99.13W
04/24/2025  M61 MPH          Woodward           OK   Mesonet

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
735 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

OKZ004-005-250100-
Harper OK-Woods OK-
735 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Woods
and northeastern Harper Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Buffalo, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Buffalo mesonet reported a wind gust of 51 mph at 7:25 PM.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo and Selman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9968 3696 9963 3693 9926 3667 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 284DEG 15KT 3686 9957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
739 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Freedom           36.73N 99.13W
04/24/2025  E63 MPH          Woodward           OK   Mesonet

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
742 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Freedom           36.73N 99.13W
04/24/2025  M63 MPH          Woodward           OK   Mesonet

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 3
            SSW Freedom.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
759 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

OKZ004-005-010-250130-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
759 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Woods,
northeastern Harper and northern Woodward Counties through 830 PM
CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles west of Buffalo to 3 miles northeast of
Selman. Movement was east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo and Selman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9930 3672 9920 3673 9975 3700 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 275DEG 6KT 3686 9972 3683 9943

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
858 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Hail             Buffalo                 36.84N 99.63W
04/24/2025  E0.50 Inch       Harper             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0101 AM     Hail             1 W Elk City            35.41N 99.44W
04/24/2025  E0.50 Inch       Beckham            OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&