Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1013, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
109 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - High heat indices persist through mid week.

 - Widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon with additional
   chances northwest tonight.

 - Higher rain chances and not quite as hot mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The convection that developed this morning across north Texas
continues to expand and slowly move east. Additional showers have
been developing in southwest/west central Oklahoma. Although most
of the CAMs show this to likely be a mostly diurnally driven, they
have been to quick to shut things off the last couple of days so
will maintain some POPs into this evening. Many models show
additional storm development late tonight in the north as the
mid-level ridge shifts west and a shortwave moves south-southeast
across the central Plains toward Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Another hot day is expected on Tuesday with max temperatures
forecast to be a touch warmer than today. With that, the forecast
heat index values reach advisory criteria across a slightly
broader area and the Heat Advisory for Tuesday will expand
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas to include the Norman-
Chickasha-Lawton-Wichita Falls corridor. Any convection that
fires up overnight in northern Oklahoma will persist into at least
the morning hours, with some diurnal redevelopment expected in
the afternoon.

As a mid-level trough amplifies across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, the mid-level ridge gets pushed to the east and another
shortwave moves south through the Plains states. This should
help push a cold front into the area on Wednesday. It is hard to
call it colder temperatures as forecast highs are still close to
average for this time of year, so we will go with "not as hot"
for most areas. The southeast may still be warm enough to have
heat indices in the advisory criteria, but in most areas the heat
index values are currently forecast to be below advisory criteria.

Rain chances will also increase on Tuesday night and Wednesday as
this front moves through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Afternoon highs will only get up into the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area behind the aforementioned cool front through the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Low end rain chances are
possible across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday
and remaining dry through Saturday. Rain chances return Sunday
across far northern Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR ceilings again this TAF period. Winds are expected to
generally be from the SE to SW this TAF period but brief periods
of wind shifts will be possible due to storms. Scattered
showers/storms will be possible into this evening and then again
Tuesday morning. Chances are low but it looks like the most likely
area for any showers/storms this afternoon and evening would be in
western OK and western north TX. The chances will also be low
tomorrow morning with isolated to scattered showers/storms
possible. With the low chances, there is no mention of this
activity in many of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  97  74  93 /  20  20  30  20
Hobart OK         73  99  71  96 /  20  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  98  74  95 /  10  10  10  30
Gage OK           70  96  69  93 /  20  10  30  10
Ponca City OK     74  98  72  92 /  20  20  30  20
Durant OK         76 100  76  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-025-026-030>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25

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