Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms are likely Friday
  night/early Saturday.

- Low chance for accumulating snow late Saturday into early
  Sunday. Accumulation/travel impacts are unlikely.

- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures Sunday and
  Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Similar to yesterday, there should be lull in the precipitation
for the rest of this afternoon and evening. The exception will be
far southeastern Oklahoma (Atoka and Bryan counties) and areas
east. Visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds across
northeastern Texas and this is where much better boundary layer
instability will be. Early morning and on-going convection today
will likely keep the synoptic boundary to our south and east, but
we will continue to monitor.

Meanwhile, the upper low/trough, that has brought us a multi-day
rain event, is current spinning over southern Arizona.  By late this
evening and especially overnight, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of central and
northern Texas.  Similar to the past two nights, elevated
instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support a risk
of strong to severe storms. The most likely area for severe
storms will be along and southeast of I-44 or perhaps more
southeast. Large hail and damaging winds may occur with a few
storms.

The additional rainfall overnight into early Saturday will begin to
increase the chance of localized flooding.  Higher rainfall totals
over the past three days have generally been along and southeast of
I-44 where 2 to 3 inch amounts have been observed.  Given the breaks
between rounds of convection this week, we will likely not issue a
Flood Watch at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across a
good portion of Oklahoma during the morning Saturday. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible, especially across south
central and southeastern Oklahoma.  Most areas will see a break in
the precipitation before more rain develops with the approaching
low. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible
with the overnight into Saturday morning convection. This will
likely increase streamflows on some creeks and streams,
especially along and southeast of I-44.

As the upper low lifts across Oklahoma/far northern Oklahoma
Saturday night into early Sunday, some of the precipitation should
mix with or change to snow.  With the track of the upper low, this
will be more likely from parts of southwest/west central Oklahoma
Saturday evening/early overnight.  As the low continue to move
northeast overnight Saturday/early Sunday, this change over may
occur across parts of central/north central Oklahoma.  Precipitation
rates may become high enough for some slushy accumulations on grassy
areas. Any snow that does accumulate will melt rather quickly
after the precipitation ends and temperatures gradually warm.

There will also be a risk of freezing temperatures by early Sunday
morning.  It appears the best chance for some clearing will be
across northwestern Oklahoma where there is a at least of medium
chance of freezing temperatures (outside of areas that receive
some snow). A better chance of widespread freezing temperatures
appears to be early Monday morning. Many locales are past their
climatological late freeze, so freeze headlines will likely be
issued.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The slow-moving upper system will begin to accelerate to the east
into early next week, as a deeper upper low rotates across the
Northeast. The upper pattern will then transition towards a
western ridge into the midweek. This will favor a return of drier
and warmer conditions. Very cold temperatures (upper-20s/30s) are
expected on Monday morning, with seasonable conditions currently
anticipated by the afternoon. 70s-80s conditions are likely to
return by Tuesday.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue to impact all sites through
the period. Showers and thunderstorms will once again move from
western north Texas into Oklahoma during the overnight hours and
into Saturday morning. Rain is expected to exit the area by late
morning, with drizzle/mist in its wake. Gusty northerly winds will
affect all terminals through the period as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  43  45  33 /  80 100 100  90
Hobart OK         57  42  44  33 /  90  90  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  59  46  47  35 /  80  90  90 100
Gage OK           54  36  46  29 /  90  90  70  40
Ponca City OK     55  43  48  35 /  90  70  90  70
Durant OK         61  48  52  37 / 100  90 100  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13