Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
116 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very
   large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are
   possible this afternoon and evening.

 - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week.

 - Widespread rain chances return by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to
mid-afternoon across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into northwest
Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches a
surface cold front.

Initial thunderstorms are expected to be supercells with a
significant hail (2"+) and some tornado risk. With time, the
supercells are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale
convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast as a cold
pool becomes established.

There is the potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80
mph or stronger) that could produce damaging wind gusts and
embedded QLCS tornadoes as the forward-propagoting MCS
accelerates to the southeast Oklahoma into north Texas--especially
with any bowing segments. The greatest risk for any QLCS tornadoes
will be on the left side of any bowing segments.

Currently the most likely track of the MCS is across west-
central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. However, central Oklahoma will be on the northeast
periphery of the MCS. Occasionally, a bookend-vortex can develop
on the northeast edge of an MCS that can produce severe weather.
Power outages are likely in the track of the most intense winds.

In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a
continued threat for flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the highest
confidence of heavy rainfall is with the complex of thunderstorms.
While we expect the complex to be progressive, it will not take a
of rainfall to cause flooding problems given the recent rainfall.
Widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall is expected with locally higher
amounts possible.

The complex of thunderstorms is expected to exit southeast
Oklahoma just after midnight tonight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For Monday, there should be a general lull in shower and
thunderstorms in the wake of Sunday's MCS with cooler weather from
northerly winds. There could be some remnant convection across
western north Texas--but no severe weather is expected.

By Tuesday into Tuesday night, a subtle shortwave trough may
result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas
into southern Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast
across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north
Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the
overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out.
This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the
week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are
indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the
Plains as we go through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A few showers/weak thunderstorms can be found near DUA and in
western north Texas this morning, but those will move out of our
area. Following that, VFR skies will prevail through most of the
day. Widespread thunderstorm development will occur in northern
and western parts of the area this afternoon, moving southeast
through the evening. With these storms, northwest gusts up to 60
knots will be possible in addition to hail and very heavy
rainfall. Overall, winds shift to northeasterly tonight after
storms depart.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  84  64  87 /  70  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  84  63  87 /  90  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  83  65  86 / 100  20  20  10
Gage OK           58  84  60  87 /  50   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  85  60  90 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  84  66  87 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for OKZ033>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04

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