Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms overnight with damaging
  winds and large hail the main hazards.

- Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy
  rainfall and severe weather possible.

- Near average temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing across
northern Oklahoma near the surface front, but the storms have been
very slow to organize, increase in mid-level intensity, or grow
more widespread yet. Despite the somewhat shallow nature of the
storms, we have seen at least one likely downburst in northern
Oklahoma. Water vapor satellite still shows the primary wave
moving south through Kansas early this morning, so we likely will
still see the thunderstorms become more widespread early this
morning. Storms will move south through the early morning and will
be moving south out of the area around or a little after 12Z. Will
continue to watch trends over the morning and make adjustments to
the forecasts as necessary.

The surface front washes out across north Texas late today.
Although forecast 850 mb flow does not show very strong winds and
the flow is veered, the low-level jet may be setting up tonight at
a lower level with 25 to 30 knot flow progged at 925 mb by 12Z.
Isentropic analysis (especially on the 300K and 305K surfaces)
show isentropic lift and moisture advection towards morning, so
will keep at least a low chance for shower/thunderstorm
development in south central Oklahoma towards sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Low-level moisture will not get pushed very far south with
Sunday's front, and the flow from the gulf opens up Monday
allowing better moisture return north into the forecast area.
Meanwhile, the primary large-scale mid-level trough moves from the
western United States towards the Plains. Storm development is
expected to our west over the High Plains on Monday afternoon and
spread east Monday night. With the forcing associated with the
approach of the mid-level trough, thunderstorms are expected to
become widespread and spread east across the area overnight and
into Tuesday. The surface front that moves south through the
Plains slows down as the mid-level trough weakens and moves
northeast of the area. Storm redevelopment is expected Tuesday
afternoon along the front, although models differ on where this
will be. But regardless of where the front is at the time,
widespread storms are expected again Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

An active pattern remains through the week with a series of mid-
level troughs developing across the west with shortwaves and/or
the primary troughs ejecting towards the Plains at times, so
occasional thunderstorms are expected throughout the week. The
medium range models vary somewhat on the specific timing of the
waves so the POPs are somewhat broad-brushed in the extended at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Thunderstorms will continue to develop tonight in north central
Oklahoma, moving south through central Oklahoma and eventually
reaching the Red River region by daybreak tomorrow. Gusty winds
and heavy rainfall are the primary aviation concerns. Afterward,
gradually clearing/VFR conditions will prevail.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  65  86  70 /  30   0  10  40
Hobart OK         88  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  70
Wichita Falls TX  88  68  92  71 /  10  10  10  50
Gage OK           87  63  91  65 /   0  10  10  60
Ponca City OK     86  63  87  69 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         84  66  86  72 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04

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