Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
502 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return today/Thursday and
   continue into the holiday weekend. All-day precipitation
   potential is not currently expected during this time.

 - Severe weather will be possible each day through Sunday. Large
   hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main concern.

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Scattered shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast
today. A surface front continues to make slow southward progress
early this morning, currently near Interstate 40. Initial widely
scattered precipitation cores will be possible by as early as
~8-10 AM this morning across central and eastern Oklahoma, as a
(weakening) low-level jet and edge of an advected
moisture/instability plume intercept the frontal zone. While brief
heavy rainfall-lightning will be the main hazards with this
initial wave of activity, some threat for hail (even severe hail)
cannot be discounted given ~750-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in the ascent
path (along with sufficient deep-layer wind fields).

The current favored solution through the remainder of the day is
for any activity that develops (and persists) towards midday to
intensify as it moves into portions of south-central and southeast
Oklahoma, coincident with a destabilizing boundary layer.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are likely to emerge further to
the north and west (perhaps as far north as the I-40 corridor/OKC
metro area) along and south of a reinforcing surface front. Given
a well-mixed boundary layer, steep lapse rates, and significant
instability, damaging downburst wind gusts are likely with
strongest thunderstorms. Additionally, provided sufficient
(~40-50 knots) deep-layer wind shear overlapping impressive
thermodynamic fields, very large hail will also be of concern with
more persistent/undisturbed convection. Activity should generally
begin to wane and/or move southward out of the area towards
~10-11 PM.

The front will also offer a notable gradient in afternoon and
evening temperatures across the region, with upper-70s common behind
the front compared to 90s ahead.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday: The aforementioned front is expected to lift back
northward as a modified/effective warm front during the predawn
hours of Friday morning, as cyclogenesis begins across the Central
High Plains. A renewed round of isentropically-driven
shower/thunderstorm activity is likely across central into
northeastern Oklahoma during the morning hours. A few
thunderstorms may contain some risk for hail, though with a
majority of activity expected to be along and east of the
instability axis, concern for severe weather with this activity
remains low at this time.

A round of widely scattered afternoon into evening thunderstorms
is expected across the Texas Panhandle. A few of these storms may
propagate eastward into western portions of the forecast area late
in the evening on Friday with some concern for hail and damaging
wind gusts. Additional activity is once again expected across
central into eastern Oklahoma late in the evening Friday into
early Saturday, in response to an increasing warm air advection
regime. A few stronger thunderstorms in this regime may harbor a
risk for hail.

Saturday: Additional thunderstorm and severe weather chances will
continue into the first day of the holiday weekend. Another front
looks to surge into portions of northwestern Oklahoma on Saturday
morning, with slow southeastward evolution expected during the
daytime. Despite being placed beneath a shortwave upper ridge,
with evidence of neutral or slightly rising mid-level heights,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to emerge, possibly focused
near a pseudo-triple point from the eastern Texas Panhandle into
west-central Oklahoma. Despite marginally sufficient deep-layer
wind profiles, very strong instability and steep lapse rates will
help compensate to promote concern for severe weather (damaging
wind gusts and large hail) with any sustained thunderstorm into
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday will also be quite hot near/south of the boundary, with an
axis of upper-90s to perhaps 100-degrees currently advertised from
portions of western-north Texas into western Oklahoma.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The stormy pattern will roll on into Sunday, focused once again near
a frontal boundary as a weak upper wave begins to translate
eastward. With continued strong instability and sufficient wind
profiles, some severe weather risk is likely to remain, though
details on coverage/areas/severity are murky and will likely be
highly dependent on evolution of previous day(s) thunderstorms and
the aforementioned front.

The surface front looks likely to accelerate east of the forecast
area by early Monday, with very pleasant/unseasonably cool
high temperatures (low to mid-70s) possible on Monday and
Tuesday. A low (20-30%) chance for precipitation exists on Monday
afternoon across the southern tier of the area, though this
concern will be highly dependent on how fast the front moves/clear
during the day.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Storms are expected to
develop in parts of central OK later this morning. Storm chances
will continue this afternoon/evening in parts of central and
southern OK and western north TX. Some of the storms could become
severe with hail and strong variable winds possible. A frontal
boundary is expected to continue to move south today causing winds
to shift towards the NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  60  81  67 /  30  20  50  40
Hobart OK         88  61  87  67 /  20  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  90  64  89  72 /  50  40  20  20
Gage OK           80  57  83  61 /   0  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     78  56  72  61 /  10  10  60  70
Durant OK         85  64  85  72 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25

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