Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
204 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

-Potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood threat through
Wednesday.

-Severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible through Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather will moderate over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The screaming message of this forecast update is the potential for
significant and/or potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood
hazards through the next 24+ hours. A secondary but notable risk for
severe convective storms/tornadoes is also present...particularly
over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

Current mesoanalysis shows an effective frontal boundary moving
southward and oriented along/south of the I44 corridor. The
airmass south of this boundary is destabilizing yet again, and has
proven to support all severe weather modes in recent days.
Several perturbations embedded within persistent southwesterly
flow aloft will continue to support multiple convective complexes
through tonight (and into Wednesday). Given anomalously moist
atmospheric profiles with PWATs 1.2-1.5 inches, the potential for
training heavy rainfall is high. This atop a footprint of 7-day
rainfall totals generally ranging from 4-8+ inches over
southwestern and south- central Oklahoma...including the OKC Metro
area. Current MRMS FLASH continues to show saturated surface
conditions from the Wichita Mountains northeastward through the
central Oklahoma/OKC Metro, so any additional convective rains
will be problematic.

Unfortunately, all other convective hazard will also be possible-
especially south of the boundary. Those hazards will be dictated by
convective mode...with the best chance of discrete/supercell storms
over the Red River Valley and points south. Otherwise, convective
segments/clusters also have readily produced damaging wind gusts
within this airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The active weather described above will persist through
Wednesday as the upper air low now over northern Arizona begins to
approach the region. DESI probabilistic data suggests 85%
probability of >3 inch rainfall along the I44 corridor of
southwestern Oklahoma by 1 pm Wednesday, and >50% of >5 inches.
Some high resolution models suggest localized QPFs >8+ inches may
not be out of the question somewhere over western north Texas
and/or south-central Oklahoma. Unfortunately, this would include
the Lawton area proper - where impactful flooding has already
occurred - and areas eastward across the Arbuckle Mountains (a
known flood-prone part of south-central Oklahoma).

Again, all convective hazards will be possible, and largely
contingent upon the mesoscale evolution of surface features and
influences of preceding convection. The most likely scenarios
appear to support a southward frontal position which may
effectively make flash flooding a notably greater risk than
tornadoes/damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The parent upper air low which has instigated much of the
recent active weather will eventually eject eastward late
Wednesday and early Thursday. Low amplitude ridging aloft will
briefly influence our weather into the weekend before another
western U.S. storm system deepens during the Sunday/Monday
timeframe with some signals of unsettled weather for the southern
Plains again by the first half of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms and showers will impact all of
our terminals as a storm system persists. Low ceilings and periods
of reduced visibilities in rain will keep our terminals under
changing IFR to MVFR conditions through the entire forecast
period. Will keep VCTS through 21Z after which the next rounds of
storms that will be coming in from western Texas. A cold front
stretched near the Red River will remain stalled out with north
surface winds behind this surface boundary. However outflow from
potential storm activity could make surface winds variable in
direction and speed from the synoptic direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  70  54  76 / 100  90  70  10
Hobart OK         56  72  50  77 / 100  80  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  76  53  80 /  90  90  40   0
Gage OK           51  73  47  74 /  70  60  40  20
Ponca City OK     57  71  55  76 /  90  80  70  30
Durant OK         65  74  62  82 /  70 100  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ008-012-013-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...68

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
253 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ030-031-292030-
Pottawatomie OK-Seminole OK-
253 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Seminole and central Pottawatomie Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brooksville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shawnee, Seminole, Tecumseh, Maud, Earlsboro, Bowlegs, St. Louis,
Brooksville, Macomb, Little, Lima, and Harjo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9695 3522 9705 3546 9674 3546 9669
      3511 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 233DEG 27KT 3520 9691

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ044-TXZ084>090-292100-
Cotton OK-Clay TX-Wichita TX-Archer TX-Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-
Baylor TX-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Potential for brief, non-tornadic funnel clouds will impact
portions of southern Cotton, northwestern Clay, northwestern Archer,
Wichita, southeastern Foard, northeastern Knox, southern Wilbarger
and northern Baylor Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a funnel cloud near
Mankins. A boundary where further funnel clouds are possible is
located along a line extending from 3 miles west of Corum to 5 miles
west of Iowa Park to 8 miles southeast of Crowell.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Impacts are unlikely, but if a funnel cloud was to reach
         the ground, minor wind damage is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita Falls, Burkburnett, Walters, Iowa Park, Holliday, Temple,
Randlett, Sheppard AFB, Lake Diversion, Gilliland, Lake Kemp,
Truscott, Mankins, Dundee, Pleasant Valley, Taylor, Charlie, and
Cashion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the formation of funnel clouds, but the
threat posed by these funnel clouds is low. Most funnel clouds will
not reach the ground. If they do, weak tornadoes with brief wind
gusts in excess of 50 MPH may occur.

If you observe a funnel cloud or one is reported in your area, move
indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9988 3400 9880 3446 9814 3413 9814
      3377 9866 3366 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 331DEG 6KT 3437 9817 3394 9876 3388 9964

LANDSPOUT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
318 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ028-030-031-040-042-292045-
Pottawatomie OK-Garvin OK-Pontotoc OK-McClain OK-Seminole OK-
318 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Garvin,
southwestern Seminole, northwestern Pontotoc, southwestern
Pottawatomie and southeastern McClain Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near St. Louis to 4 miles south of Stratford.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Stratford, Konawa, Byng, Maud, Bowlegs, Asher, Wanette,
Byars, St. Louis, and Trousdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 9661 3485 9663 3474 9709 3506 9710
      3517 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 235DEG 17KT 3507 9688 3473 9698

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meister