Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
558 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Excessive rain is possible across portions of southwest/southern
  Oklahoma and western north Texas today, where a Flood Watch is
  in place.

- Daily chances for storms (some severe) and heavy rain continue
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Complex of storms moving into southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas will continue to push east this morning. Strongest storms may
still pose a low end severe wind and hail risk through the morning
hours. By midday into the afternoon, airmass ahead of this complex,
and exact location of where this will be is still uncertain, could
pose a higher risk of severe storms, including all hazards.

Along with the severe risk, the slow motion of the storms and high
precipitable water, flooding will be a distinct possibility across
portions of southern Oklahoma south into north Texas. A Flood Watch
continues through the day today for this area.

By late today into tonight in the wake of the daytime storms, should
see a lull in the convection, although some more isolated activity
can not be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Shortwave ridging sets up across the southern Plains for Sunday
which will lead to, at least temporarily, a drier period with warmer
temperatures. Although can not completely rule out an isolated
shower to storm with possible residual low level boundaries and
moist airmass in place. This will occur in advance of a larger
western trough that will move through the western basin into the
central Rockies on Sunday.

An initial lobe of energy will translate around the base of the
trough and eject northeast into the central and northern Plains
during the morning hours on Monday. As this occurs and dryline will
shift east out of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into western
Oklahoma. By late in the day another shortwave will move out into
the southern Plains and forcing from this wave will overspread the
dryline, aiding in developing at least scattered convection. Some
models do show a capping inversion that may delay or limit
convection, but soundings would suggest a favorable in environment
for supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes if storms do develop and many of the models do convect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

As northern wave presses east it drives a front south through the
area Monday night into Tuesday, but conditions remain favorable
across at least the southeast two-thirds of the area for another
round of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Main hazards
do appear to be hail and wind, along with heavy, potentially
flooding rainfall.

Yet another compact shortwave approaches on Wednesday with surface
front lifting back north through the day. However, deep moisture
profile should limit overall instability, outside of southern
Oklahoma and north Texas, where a more favorable airmass may reside
for severe storms.

We may then get a break in the storms for latter part of the week
before another system approaches by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas of thunderstorms continue to move east through Oklahoma and
north Texas, bringing gusty erratic winds and periods of reduced
visibility as the pass through each of the TAF sites. Ceilings are
expected to crash late tonight, mainly over northern Oklahoma where
is some low potential for fog as well.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  61  80  66 /  90  30  10  10
Hobart OK         71  60  81  64 /  90  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  78  63  84  67 /  90  30   0  10
Gage OK           66  55  80  62 /  80  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     65  58  80  65 /  80  40  30  10
Durant OK         80  64  83  68 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ033>039-041-044>047-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14

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