Flash Flood Warning 155, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
513 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening, primarily across western Oklahoma.

 - Mild weather continues today with above-normal temperatures
   likely by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Thunderstorms have all but diminish across northwest/west central
Oklahoma this morning with convective debris clouds remaining. These
should gradually thin through the afternoon.

Elsewhere, low clouds across parts of the Texas Panhandle and
southwestern Oklahoma/western north Texas have scattered into more
of a Cu structure.  Convective-allowing models (CAMs) have trended
with less coverage of storms this afternoon and evening near
northwest/west central Oklahoma.  However, water vapor imagery shows
a well defined shortwave trough moving into northwestern Kansas with
some cloud enhancement ahead of the feature.  Lift associated with
the approaching disturbance and daytime heating should result in
at least isolated storms by late afternoon/early evening. Perhaps
a better chance of boundary-layer convection will develop across
the Panhandles within weak convergent flow. These storms should
take a while to enter western Oklahoma. If showers/storms form
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon they should be more
elevated.

With the effective shear around 35+ knots, and CAPE (1500-200 J/kg)
this will support strong to severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds.

A low-level jet is expected to develop by late evening/overnight.
The stronger winds tonight should be positioned farther east than
last night and more veered.  Although the mid-level winds will
remain weak and not as westerly, isolated/widely scattered elevated
showers and storms are possible.  This may occur over parts of north
central/central Oklahoma.  It also appears a much better setup for
organized convection will be to our north in parts of Kansas.
However, models are not handling the ongoing convection in central
Kansas very well. Given the veered jet and northwest flow, some
of this activity may try and build into north central Oklahoma
during the morning. There are also indications that a weak
disturbance may approach western Oklahoma late tonight into early
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Isolated showers and storms may be ongoing across mainly north
central/central/far western Oklahoma early Tuesday morning.  If
another organized area of convection develops in Kansas will need to
see if this activity may develop over or move into north central
Oklahoma during the morning/early afternoon.  Although the pattern
will become unfavorable for storms by late Wednesday/Thursday
(upper ridge builds over the southern Plains), another weak
disturbance will result in low chances of storms Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. These storms should mainly occur across
western/northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

The mid-level ridge is forecast to remain entrenched across the
Southern Plains through at least Saturday, which will likely
result in continued above-normal temperatures and minimal rain
chances.

The probabilistic temperature forecast (derived from an ensemble
of bias-corrected models) indicates a very high chance of above-
normal temperatures given even the 10th percentile (the colder
end of guidance) has slightly above-normal temperatures Thursday
through Saturday. High temperatures will likely range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s deg F.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the mid-level ridge may weaken as a
trough lifts into the Plains. As a result, there is at least a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of the
weekend.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

A line of discrete severe thunderstorms have developed in southern
Kansas and are propogating slowly to the south towards northern
Oklahoma. Added TEMPO groups for storms at WWR and PNC this
evening. Large to very large hail is possible for storms over
northwest Oklahoma over the next few hours, with severe storms
expected to diminish by midnight. Otherwise, low chances for
showers/storms continue into Tuesday evening with southerly winds.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  62  85  64 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK         86  63  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  63  89  64 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           83  61  89  64 /  30  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     82  60  85  63 /  20  20  20  10
Durant OK         82  57  85  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

OKZ006-007-012-082330-
Garfield OK-Alfalfa OK-Grant OK-
553 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Alfalfa, southwestern Grant and northwestern Garfield Counties
through 630 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Great Salt Plains Lake, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Goltry, Jet, Nash, Hillsdale, Carrier, and Great Salt
Plains Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 9841 3685 9832 3665 9786 3643 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 311DEG 22KT 3670 9823

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Meister

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
724 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Hail             Hillsdale               36.56N 97.99W
09/08/2025  E1.50 Inch       Garfield           OK   Emergency Mngr

&&

MDU

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