Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, with damaging wind gusts the main hazard.

- Low (10-30%) chances for isolated to scattered showers and
  storms continue through the week into the weekend.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Storms are expected to develop along an outflow boundary this
afternoon and evening, generally south of I-40. With sufficient
instability, high PWATs, and little wind shear (resulting in pulse
storms with little movement), downbursts and localized flooding will
again be the main risks with these storms, though some hail with the
stronger storms cannot be ruled out as well. This activity is
expected to shift south through the evening and dissipate overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

By Tuesday morning, most of our rain chances will have shifted
southward leaving only low chances mainly across southern Oklahoma
and north Texas. Timing-wise, this would include any lingering
showers in the morning followed by any redevelopment in the
afternoon. That being said, most of the CAMs keep us dry all day.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler with highs primarily
in the upper 80s to low 90s (due to the passage of a cold front the
night before).

Temperatures start gradually warming back up on Wednesday. Ridging
will keep us mostly dry, though we will still maintain some low
chances for rain.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The center of the upper ridge will reposition itself to our south
and east mid to late week, allowing for low chances of showers and
storms to continue through the end of week. A trough is forecast to
cross the area by the weekend, which may bring more widespread
shower and storm activity to the region, though models disagree
somewhat on the strength and timing of this trough. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal average through the end of the week,
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, then warm into the mid to
upper 90s by the weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Showers/storms will
continue to be possible this afternoon and evening with highest
chances along and south of I-40. Strong variable wind gusts will
be possible with some of the storms and maybe some hail. Shifting
wind directions will continue this afternoon and evening as
outflow boundaries move across the area and then when a cold
front moves across the area winds should become more stable in a N
to NE direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  70  89 /  30  10  20  20
Hobart OK         70  89  70  92 /  50  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  91  73  94 /  50  20  10  10
Gage OK           66  87  67  88 /  10  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     67  87  67  88 /  10   0  10  20
Durant OK         73  92  73  95 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
456 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

OKZ028-030>032-042-302245-
Pottawatomie OK-Pontotoc OK-Hughes OK-McClain OK-Seminole OK-
456 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Seminole,
northwestern Pontotoc, southwestern Pottawatomie, central Hughes and
southeastern McClain Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Horntown to near Wanette. Movement was
east-southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holdenville, Konawa, Asher, Wanette, Calvin, Byars, Lamar, Sasakwa,
Horntown, Atwood, and Spaulding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9607 3505 9609 3497 9609 3486 9714
      3500 9714 3513 9617 3509 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 291DEG 10KT 3508 9630 3498 9695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
508 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

OKZ027-038>040-302300-
Grady OK-Stephens OK-Garvin OK-Comanche OK-
508 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Comanche, Garvin,
southern Grady and northern Stephens Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Byars to Rush Springs to Fort Sill. These
storms were drifting slowly east.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawton, Pauls Valley, Marlow, Lindsay, Cache, Elgin, Stratford,
Maysville, Rush Springs, Bray, Fletcher, Sterling, Paoli, Medicine
Park, Indiahoma, Meers, Lake Lawtonka, Antioch, Fort Sill, and Lake
Ellsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 9882 3485 9693 3470 9693 3456 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 077DEG 2KT 3483 9713 3468 9868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
511 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

OKZ042-043-302245-
Coal OK-Pontotoc OK-
511 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Coal
and central Pontotoc Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ada. This storm was drifting slowly east. Another strong
thunderstorm was located near Stonewall, also drifting slowly east.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Byng, Stonewall, Tupelo, Francis, Fitzhugh, Centrahoma, and
Fittstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 9672 3479 9682 3490 9656 3461 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 242DEG 3KT 3474 9670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

..speg.

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