Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

 - Significant severe weather with the potential of large to very
   large hail, destructive wind gusts, tornadoes, and flooding are
   possible this afternoon and evening.

 - Mainly dry and a bit cooler early this week.

 - Widespread rain chances return by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by early to
mid-afternoon across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles into northwest
Oklahoma as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches a
surface cold front.

Initial thunderstorms are expected to be supercells with a
significant hail (2"+) and some tornado risk. With time, the
supercells are expected to grow upscale into a mesoscale
convective system (MCS) as they move to the southeast as a cold
pool becomes established.

There is the potential for destructive, straight-line winds (80
mph or stronger) that could produce damaging wind gusts and
embedded QLCS tornadoes as the forward-propagoting MCS
accelerates to the southeast Oklahoma into north Texas--especially
with any bowing segments. The greatest risk for any QLCS tornadoes
will be on the left side of any bowing segments.

Currently the most likely track of the MCS is across west-
central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. However, central Oklahoma will be on the northeast
periphery of the MCS. Occasionally, a bookend-vortex can develop
on the northeast edge of an MCS that can produce severe weather.
Power outages are likely in the track of the most intense winds.

In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will result in a
continued threat for flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the highest
confidence of heavy rainfall is with the complex of thunderstorms.
While we expect the complex to be progressive, it will not take a
of rainfall to cause flooding problems given the recent rainfall.
Widespread 1 to 3" of rainfall is expected with locally higher
amounts possible.

The complex of thunderstorms is expected to exit southeast
Oklahoma just after midnight tonight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For Monday, there should be a general lull in shower and
thunderstorms in the wake of Sunday's MCS with cooler weather from
northerly winds. There could be some remnant convection across
western north Texas--but no severe weather is expected.

By Tuesday into Tuesday night, a subtle shortwave trough may
result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across north Texas
into southern Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

As the shortwave moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains Wednesday a closed low develops and then swings northeast
across the area, bringing more widespread rain to Oklahoma and north
Texas. Right now, limited instability at this time should mute the
overall severe risk, but a few severe storms can not be ruled out.
This split flow and rain chances continue through the end of the
week as multiple shortwaves traverse the southern Plains. Models are
indicating the potential for an upper ridge building out into the
Plains as we go through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across the
Texas Panhandle and parts of western Oklahoma this afternoon.
These storms will continue to organize and move southeastward
through the evening hours. The stronger thunderstorms will
be capable of producing damaging winds, very heavy rainfall
and hail. CSM/LAW/SPS and eventually DUA may be impacted by these
storms. A cold front/outflow boundary has already moved across
parts of northern Oklahoma. Therefore, WWR/PNC may see storms this
evening, but storm intensity will likely be weaker. MVFR
conditions are likely near and within thunderstorms, with perhaps
MVFR ceilings possible behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  84  64  87 /  70  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  84  63  87 /  90  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  83  65  86 / 100  20  20  10
Gage OK           58  84  60  87 /  50   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  85  60  90 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  84  66  87 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for OKZ014>018-021>025-027>029-
     033>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
729 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SE Truscott           33.74N 99.79W
06/08/2025  M80 MPH          Knox               TX   Mesonet

&&

EM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
731 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SE Truscott           33.74N 99.79W
06/08/2025  M81 MPH          Knox               TX   Mesonet

&&

EM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
736 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Watonga           35.87N 98.42W
06/08/2025  M58 MPH          Blaine             OK   AWOS

            AWOS station KJWG Watonga.

&&

EM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
743 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

OKZ023>025-027>029-090130-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Caddo OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
743 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Grady,
northeastern Caddo, southwestern Oklahoma, northwestern Cleveland,
southern Canadian and western McClain Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Geary to 6 miles west of
Pocasset. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, southwestern Norman, Moore, Del City, El Reno,
Newcastle, Blanchard, Purcell, Yukon, Bethany, Mustang, Warr Acres,
Noble, Tuttle, Hinton, Goldsby, Union City, Minco, Dibble, and Valley
Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 9747 3495 9738 3514 9820 3554 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 306DEG 33KT 3555 9825 3522 9806

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
746 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

OKZ040-041-046-047-090115-
Carter OK-Garvin OK-Johnston OK-Murray OK-
746 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Johnston, south central Garvin, northern Carter and Murray Counties
through 815 PM CDT...

At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Hennepin, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sulphur, Davis, Springer, Katie, Dougherty, Gene Autry, Tatums,
Hennepin, Pooleville, Lake Of The Arbuckles, and Turner Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 9749 3452 9744 3459 9736 3449 9682
      3420 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 287DEG 32KT 3448 9729

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JT

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