Special Weather Statement, NWS Spokane, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk.

- A 15% chance of thunderstorms producing little rain Wednesday.

- Dry and Windy conditions Wednesday in central Washington with
  elevated to critical fire weather concerns.

- Not as hot Thursday and Independence Day with high
  temperatures in the 80s

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system tracking through Wednesday will deliver a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms producing little
rain. Dry and windy conditions will also lead to increased fire
weather concerns on Wednesday in Central Washington. Temperatures
will cool into the 80s for Thursday and Independence Day before
heating back up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday morning: Broad southwest flow
continues across the region with limited moisture over Eastern
Washington and North Idaho promoting mostly clear skies and hot
temperatures through this evening. Heat Advisories remain in
place through 9 PM. Tonight, a mid level wave over Oregon gets
picked up by an approaching upper trough, with an axis of
elevated moisture/instability tracking along and east of a line
from Moses Lake to Colville Wednesday morning. CAM's models are
picking up on elevated convection mostly in the form of high
based showers, but with some embedded higher reflectivities
indicative of potential lightning. With 700-500mb MU CAPE of
200-400 J/KG and it being within the 0 to -20C thermal layer,
can not ruled out a handful of lightning strikes across Eastern
Washington into the ID Panhandle. Although the latest models
have trended slightly weaker. Yet with any storms that develop,
the fast storm motion and dry sub cloud layer means any storms
will have only light rain. This raises the concern of potential
new fire starts with any lightning that does occur.

Wednesday afternoon and evening: Attention turns to critical
fire weather conditions in Central WA as pressure gradients
tighten with the approaching trough and weakening ridge over the
region. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for the Okanogan Valley down through the Wenatchee
area, Waterville Plateau, and Moses Lake area. The Methow Valley
has been added as well.  Dry and windy conditions will lead to
the potential for rapid fire spread with any new fire starts.

Thursday through Tuesday: Drier and more stable air moves into
the region on Thursday as an upper low moving into Central BC
results in increasing westerly flow. Heading into Independence
Day another mid level wave is shown by the ensembles to pass to
our south across Oregon. The bulk of the models maintain dry
weather across the region, with a 20-30% chance of showers
limited to far SE Washington, the Lewiston area, and Camas
Prairie. Over the weekend into early next week there is good
model agreement of an upper ridge gradually building over the
weekend before amplifying into Monday and Tuesday. This leads to
a gradual warmup over the weekend, and then more significant
warming. Currently the NBM has next Tuesday just as hot as
today. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Some hi-res models are showing elevated showers/isolated
thunderstorms moving into eastern Washington after 10z Wednesday
but confidence is too low to include in any of the TAFs. A
breakdown of the upper level ridge will increase onshore flow
Tuesday evening with breezy winds through the Cascade gaps
impacting EAT/EPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in conditions remaining VFR. Low confidence in showers at any
TAF site early Wednesday morning, but any showers will bring the
risk of isolated lightning strikes and gusty winds. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        64  91  57  84  55  82 /   0  20   0   0   0  10
Coeur d'Alene  64  90  58  83  56  82 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Pullman        60  87  53  80  52  78 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       69  97  63  89  61  86 /   0  10  10   0  10  20
Colville       55  91  48  82  47  82 /   0  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      57  89  54  81  51  80 /   0  20  10   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  88  60  79  58  77 /   0  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     64  95  57  87  55  86 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      69  91  62  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  95  56  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Foothills
     of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley
     (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d'Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
     Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.

&&