Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2025
Wind Advisory 5, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this wind advisory at Oct 11, 2025, 3:04 PM EDT for 4 counties in Connecticut; 8 counties in New York; Essex County, Hudson County, Union County, New Jersey. It took effect at Oct 12, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 21 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2025, 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 12, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2025, 8:47 AM EDT
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 829 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
618 WWUS71 KOKX 111904 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 304 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 NYZ079-081-120800- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.251012T1600Z-251013T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 304 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Eastern Suffolk County. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid windows during the windstorm. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NYZ075-078-080-176>179-120800- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.251012T1600Z-251013T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 304 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau, and Western Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>074-120800- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- 304 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc Goodman
5 follow-up statements
380 WWUS71 KOKX 120608 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 208 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 NYZ079-081-130000- /O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 208 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>074-130000- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- 208 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NYZ075-078-080-176>179-130000- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.251012T1600Z-251013T2200Z/ Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 208 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc JT
166 WWUS71 KOKX 121930 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 NYZ079-081-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251013T2200Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid windows during the windstorm. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>074-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2200Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NYZ075-078-080-176>179-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2200Z/ Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau, and Western Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc Goodman
615 WWUS71 KOKX 130611 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 211 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 NYZ079-081-131600- /O.EXT.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251013T1600Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 211 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Isolated power outages remain possible. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid windows during the windstorm. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>074-131615- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2200Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- 211 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NYZ075-078-080-176>179-131615- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2200Z/ Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 211 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc JT
958 WWUS71 KOKX 130855 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 455 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 NYZ079-081-132000- /O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251013T1600Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2000Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 455 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph this morning lowering to 15 to 25 with gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...If the current trend continues, this product may be cancelled before 4 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>074-131600- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T1600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- 455 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...If the current trend continues, this product may be cancelled before noon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NYZ075-078-080-176>179-131600- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T1600Z/ Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 455 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...If the current trend continues, this product may be cancelled before noon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc JT
198 WWUS71 KOKX 131247 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 847 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-131400- /O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T1600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 847 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... $$ NYZ079-081-131400- /O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-251013T2000Z/ Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 847 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph, gusting up to 40 mph are likely through today, and gradually diminishing late in the day and into the evening. With wind gusts expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc MET
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Oct 11, 10:17 AM EDT, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 10:17 AM EDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to shift offshore as another area of
high pressure builds into eastern Canada. A coastal storm will
impact the area Sunday through Monday before gradually moving
offshore through the middle of next week. High pressure then builds
in from the Great Lakes for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A northern stream upper level low can be seen quite well on
water vapor satellite imagery as it dives down over the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, southern stream energy is helping to spin up a
surface low off the southeast coast.
Over our area, high pressure continues to shift offshore and bring
us a SE/E return flow. This flow continues to increase moisture
and expansive stratus stretching from the Mid-Atlantic Coast up
through southern New England is showing this.
These clouds likely stick around today, with temperatures
reaching normal highs for early October (mid to upper 60s).
Most guidance, especially the CAMs, are showing light QPF moving
onshore by the afternoon. Still thinking this is overdone as
forecast soundings show a relatively shallow moist layer with a
dry sub-cloud layer below it. There is some lift so kept PoPs,
but went lower than the NBM. This may also end up being more
drizzle instead of light rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
*Coastal flood watches and warnings are in effect for the entire
coastline on Sunday and Monday. Widespread erosion is also
possible along the ocean beachfront. See the coastal flooding
section below for more details.
*Damaging wind gusts of 50-55 mph are possible across Long
Island, Brooklyn, and Queens Sunday night through Monday. A
few gusts to 60 mph remain possible across the Twin Forks and
immediate coastline of Long Island. A High Wind Watch remains
in effect.
*Strong winds are possible across the rest of the region, with
gusts 30-40 mph possible.
*Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are expected from Saturday night
through Monday night, with the highest amounts expected
closest to the coast. Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is
possible in typically flood-prone areas.
There has been no significant changes to the forecast with this
update. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty across the
guidance with the phasing of the aforementioned northern stream
and southern stream and how the coastal low will react. The lack
of agreement seems to be coming from messier set up of the
southern stream low as it is much broader and has several
perturbations rotating through and moving up the east coast. In
turn the guidance could be struggling on surface low pressure
center and if it should develop other areas of low pressure or
not. The GFS has overall trended weaker, but the latest ECMWF
has trended more aggressive again. Opposite of what the two were
showing 24 hours ago. This gave enough uncertainty to stick
with Watch headlines for now. As for timing, there has been
overall agreement in a later timing. This would mean some
impacts lasting longer into Monday and have extended the watch
timing to cover this.
While the strength and location of low pressure will have an
impact on exactly how strong winds can get, windy and wet
conditions are possible for several days regardless. Rain
becomes likely Sunday morning and then will continue through
Monday night. Rain could be moderate at times but as mentioned
the long duration and dry antecedent conditions help lower the
overall flood threat.
As low pressure pulls away at the end of the short term period,
the pressure gradient remains tight over the area as high
pressure starts to build in.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coastal storm continues to move away from the coast on Tuesday.
High pressure starts to build towards the area during the middle of
the week before reaching the eastern seaboard at the end of the
week. A few showers are possible Tuesday morning near the coast.
While the steadiest precipitation and most active of the weather
exits Tuesday, rain chances persist at times through the period
across the east end through Thursday.
Winds may remain breezy with a tightened pressure gradient between
the exiting low and building high Tuesday and Wednesday, before this
should begin to slacken by Thursday. PWATs fall toward or under half
an inch by Wed night or early Thursday with the cool, dry flow. With
the drier air, a cooler air mass comes with it, and temperatures
fall from the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday, down into the upper 50s
and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain to the north through tonight. Low pressure
develops along the southeast coast and tracks northward towards the
area late tonight into Sunday.
Mainly VFR conditions this morning with brief MVFR ceilings around 3
kft possible. Sprinkles are also possible this morning. Pockets of -
RA and MVFR ceilings are possible this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
prevails through sunset. Widespread / prevailing MVFR ceilings begin
developing near the coast this evening, overspreading the entire
area through Sunday morning along with -RA.
Light NE flow to start will become E through the morning along with
wind speeds increasing. A few coastal terminals could have winds
briefly become SE this afternoon. Wind speeds around 8 to 12 kt
expected this afternoon with potential of gusts 15-20 kt near the
coast this evening. NE flow continues to strengthen tonight with
gusts 20-25 kt, then 25-30 kt, strongest near the coast late tonight
into Sunday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Pockets of MVFR and a few sprinkles through early afternoon.
Additional amendments possible for potential MVFR ceilings this
afternoon into tonight.
Timing of gusts may be off by a few hours and may be delayed several
hours from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday and Monday: Rain. MVFR or lower conditions possible In bands
of heavier rain, mainly at the coastal terminals. NE winds 20-30kt,
G35-45kt at KISP, 15-25kt, G30-40kt at the NYC metro/CT terminals,
and G20-30kt at KSWF. Strongest winds late Sunday into the first
half of Monday. LLWS possible with about 50 kt at 2,000 feet for all
terminals except KSWF.
Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming likely
in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A coastal storm will bring strong winds and large waves to the
waters Sunday through Monday. A Storm Warning is now in effect
for the ocean waters, with a Gale Warning in effect for the NY
Harbor. Given the uncertainty at the other waters, a Gale Watch
was kept for now. Highest confidence in 50 kt winds is over the
ocean waters. These strong winds will increase seas over the
ocean zones to just under 20 ft and 7 to 9 ft on the LI Sound.
Winds and seas continue diminishing Tuesday into Wednesday as low
pressure exits the region, and sub advisory conditions are expected
to return to all waters by Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected Saturday night
through Monday night. While minor nuisance/poor drainage
flooding is possible, no significant impacts are expected with
this being a long duration rainfall and the recent dry
conditions.
No additional hydrological concerns are expected mid to late next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding for this aft high tides for
the Nassau County south shore bays and S Fairfield. Impacts
should be minimal.
There is a high likelihood for widespread moderate coastal
flooding, with potential for localized major flooding, for the
Sunday aft and moreso Sunday Night high tide cycles along the
western Great South Bay as ENE-NE winds ramp up to marginal
storm force Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. Confidence is
also high in areas of moderate coastal flooding along N and E
facing coastlines along Western LI Sound with combination of
water levels reaching marginal moderate flood levels, along with
3-6ft breaking wave action. Watches have been upgraded to
warnings for these areas.
Elsewhere for NY/NJ harbor, tidally affected rivers including
Hudson and Hackensack river, and along E LI coastal CT, a
widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flood threat
exists, which will continue to be refined today. Coastal flood
watches remain for this area.
Similar coastal flood threat may continue into the Monday
aft/eve high tidal cycle, but there remains uncertainty on how
quickly wind backs from NE to N, and also how quickly winds
subside based on ultimate track and intensity of low pressure. A
blend of 75th percentile Stevens, and deterministic STOFS and
ETSS was used for this forecast, which does indicate a similar
threat to the Sunday night high tide cycle.
Along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
Sunday thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the
twin forks of LI will also likely see minor to moderate dune
erosion.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for NYZ072-074-075-079-081-178.
Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
NYZ080-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 2:27 AM EDT, 12 hours 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067-068-120800- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen- Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ072-074-120800- Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex- Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ071-073-120800- Southern Westchester-Bronx- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ075-079-081-178-120800- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Watch. High Wind Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ078-176-177-120800- Northwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ080-179-120800- Southwest Suffolk-Southern Nassau- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Warning. High Wind Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-335-340-345-120800- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ338-120800- New York Harbor- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ350-353-355-120800- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ069-070-120800- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 227 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A coastal storm may produce tidal flooding on the Hudson River Sunday night into Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 4:18 PM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 52 hr |
| Oct 11, 2:17 AM EDT | Gale Warning | OKX | 3 days | |
| Oct 11, 2:17 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 28 hr | |
| Oct 11, 2:17 AM EDT | Storm Warning | OKX | 55 hr | |
| Oct 11, 3:04 PM EDT | High Wind Warning | OKX | Suffolk | 38 hr |
| Oct 11, 4:38 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 50 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New York, 2025Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2025Wind Advisories in New Jersey, 2025Every wind advisory in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.