Coastal Flood Statement 13, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday. Weak low
pressure then approaches on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rising heights today, so despite some more weak instability
during the daytime hours, this should inhibit the development of
shwrs today. With the steep llvl lapse rates, skies could cu up
quickly and become bkn-ovc at times as the cu flattens blw
subsidence aloft. A light NW flow early today becomes light sly
late as the ocean air attempts to advect in on weak background
flow. High temps are still progged to be slightly blw normal,
although almost the entire are is expected to hit at least 70
per the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pres ridges across the region on Tue, keeping the cwa dry.
A moderate sly flow develops Tue aftn aided by warming temps
over the land. The NBM suggests that this is the day that highs
reach normal.

Increasing clouds Tue ngt as moisture from the srn Plains
reaches the area. The main sys approaches Wed and looks to be
the result of cycles of convection, with these remnants passing
S of the area on Wed along a nearly stationary front. Slightly
cooler with the clouds, chances for shwrs, and continued onshore
component flow. Went with the NBM pops, but there are some
timing differences with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term looks rather unsettled with troughing over the Midwest
swinging east through late week with a series of low pressure
systems developing and passing nearby.

Weakening low pressure approaches from the Mid Atlantic to start Wed
night into Thu. Differences in placement and timing continue amongst
the global models, and quite a bit of uncertainty as to the primary
window for precipitation. Can't rule out convective thunderstorms,
particularly Thursday, though the risk for severe weather appears
low, as does any significant hydro concerns. The next low pressure
quickly follows Friday into the start of the weekend, with
additional rainfall.

While not an entire washout, chances for showers persist through
much of the the period. Despite this, QPF isn't too impressive, with
ensemble means generally averaging at or under an inch in total.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the day.

VFR.

NW winds under 10 kt veers N after 12Z this morning, followed by
afternoon sea breezes. Winds remain at around 10 kt or less thru
the day, lightening further tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours, and there is a chance
that sea breezes don't reach KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely. IFR possible Thursday. Chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the day on
Wed with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.

Ocean seas build to 5 ft Wed night or Thursday on the ocean,
and likely remain elevated into the weekend. Elsewhere, sub SCA
conditions expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized areas of minor coastal flooding is possible during the
next couple of high tide cycles with astronomically high water
levels from a new moon occurring this evening.

Coastal Flood Statement hoisted for this evening's high tide cycle
for coastal Fairfield CT along the western LI Sound, as well as for
the back bays of Nassau, Queens, and the most vulnerable locales in
Brooklyn. Water levels here could exceed minor flood thresholds by
up to half a foot.

There is a low rip current risk thru Tue with light winds. The
risk likely increases to moderate on Wednesday with building
seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC/DR
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
308 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-
103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-270900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
308 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.