Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue for the period.

- The risk of severe weather is very low, however, heavy
  rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible
  with any storm.

- Heat indices are likely to exceed 100 degrees each day this
  week for most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

There's not much different with today's forecast than yesterday's.
Once again, there is plenty of instability and moisture available
for isolated to scattered storms to develop during peak-heating
hours. We are currently not outlooked for anything more than
general thunderstorms during the next 3 days, with nothing for us
in SPC's extended convective outlook, so that's good news.
Temperatures will continue to exceed seasonal normals for the
foreseeable future. Many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau are
likely to experience afternoon heat indices of 100F or greater
today and the next several days. A few spots, mainly near the
Tennessee River, will probably reach 105F this afternoon, but not
widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Tomorrow, even more
locations are expected to hit the 105F threshold, so it is quite
possible that a Heat Advisory will be needed for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Warm and muggy conditions in Middle Tennessee continue into the rest
of this week. Tonight, patchy fog will once again be possible on the
Cumberland Plateau, as it has been the past week or so. Wednesday,
some CAMs are showing some morning showers moving west to east
around 6am along and north of I-40 so we will have to watch for some
early morning precipitation. With this early convection, the same
CAMs are not showing much in the way of afternoon thunderstorms.
However, guidance has been struggling to accurately depict the
coverage (or outright existence) of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. As long as this pattern continues, diurnal showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility. Heat indices on
Wednesday could get up to just under heat advisory criteria, so
while it is not likely at this time that one will be issued,
remember to stay hydrated and stay cool if working or doing anything
outside in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Biggest concern the next few days is heat indices, as there are
afternoons towards the end of the week when they could flirt with
110 degrees. Most likely scenario is 100 to 105 degrees, with the
higher end values being more likely west of I-24. We're actively
monitoring the situation for a possible heat advisory, but at this
time, just remember heat safety and recognize the signs of heat
illness.

Second biggest concern is with these diurnal storms, while severe
weather risk is low, hazardous weather could still occur. This
includes heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. If you're spending any time
outdoors the next week, make sure you have a plan to keep yourself
safe in case a storm surprises you while you're outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Middle Tennessee finds itself caught between a surface ridge to our
south and a weak shortwave to our north this morning. The air
mass across the mid state hasn't budged. There is plenty of
instability and available moisture, so we're looking at low to
medium chances of rain and storms mainly this afternoon. Like
yesterday, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the TAFs, except
along the Cumberland Plateau, where probabilities are a little
higher, so we've included PROB30 remarks for TS/CBs at KCSV and
KSRB. Elsewhere, we can upgrade the TAFs should convection look to
affect one or more of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  96  76 /  40  10  30  20
Clarksville    93  75  94  76 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     88  69  88  70 /  40  30  50  30
Columbia       93  75  94  74 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     90  72  90  73 /  40  20  50  30
Jamestown      89  71  88  71 /  40  30  60  30
Lawrenceburg   93  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  20
Murfreesboro   95  75  95  74 /  30  10  30  20
Waverly        93  74  94  74 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Rose

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