Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for
  many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for
  Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to
  begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading
  across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late
  night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and
  torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and
  west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest
  risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville
  Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and
  eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest
  half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower
  storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be
  the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

We are already feeling the effects of the incoming storm system
with gusty winds over 40 mph. A tight pressure gradient ahead of
an approaching front will keep the winds going strong through the
rest of the day and on into tonight. These frequent 40 to 45 mph
gusts could bring down some limbs and cause scattered power
outages well before any thunderstorms arrive.

Speaking of storms, there is a wide range of severe storm
potential across the Mid State through tonight, ranging from
level 1 out of 5 along the southern Plateau to level 4 out of 5
for many of our western counties. We have had a lot of
uncertainty about how far the incoming storms would push into the
Mid State as the main front stalls out well before reaching our
area. The latest CAMs are in reasonable agreement with storms
moving into our west counties toward 9 PM, then spreading
eastward, eventually reaching as far east as a line from
Livingston to Murfreesboro to Columbia and lawrenceburg. This
means the far southeast area of Middle Tennessee may stay dry
through the night.

As the storms move into our area, All severe modes are possible
including damaging winds to 70 mph, tornadoes, large hail, and
torrential downpours with localized flash flooding. We will have
cape values of 1000-2000 in place with deep layer shear of
40-50KT. As the evening hours approach, some backing and
strengthening of low level winds will occur over our western
counties resulting in enlarged, curving hodographs. 0-1km SRH
values will jump up to 250-350 just before the storms arrive. This
will maintain the potential for strong long-track tornadoes as the
storm arrive. Over time as the storms spread across the
northwest half of our area, the band will take on a more northeast
to southwest orientation. Surface instability will decrease, and
the main mode will shift more to multicell clusters with extremely
heavy downpours and some training cells. This transition should
bring a significant drop-off to the tornado potential, although
not zero. Unfortunately it could bring some very heavy rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with some localized flash flooding late
tonight.

By Thursday morning, the main front will be stalled along the
Ohio Valley back to the ArkLaTex. There will continue to be
scattered showers and storms in the warm and humid air south of
the front. Activity will ramp up again in coverage and intensity
late Thursday as another wave approaches. Once again the greatest
coverage and risk will be over the northwest half of our area.
Damaging winds and large hail be possible with a lower risk for
tornadoes. More heavy rainfall will fall, especially for the
northwest counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Once again Thursday evening looks pretty stormy for the northwest
half of our area with pockets of heavy rain. By Friday morning,
the main axis of rain and storms will shift north and west of our
area. Storm-weary, water-logged areas may get a decent break in
the action Friday through Friday night. This break will also allow
temps to soar near record levels, with low to mid 80s for most
areas.

Unfortunately things will set up for a potentially destructive grand
finale Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with another
round of severe thunderstorms and another batch of very heavy
rainfall. This round of rain and storms is likely to impact the
entire area, including our southeast counties which may be
relatively quiet until Saturday night.

By Saturday PM, the soil across northwest Middle Tennessee will be
over-saturated, small streams will be running high and rivers will
be rising. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will cover the
entire area and locally higher amounts are possible. So Saturday
PM through Sunday AM may be our time of greatest impact from
flooding as well as another significant round of severe wx with
all modes possible including tornadoes.

Finally, the notorious stalled frontal boundary will kicked east
of the area on Sunday, setting us up for a big change with cool
and dry wx next week. In fact, temps will be cool enough for some
frosty conditions Monday night and Tuesday night. But most
importantly we will get a chance to dry out and get some sleep at
night without tornado worries!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

An extended period of showers and storms are expected to impact
CKV/BNA/MQY during the taf period. There is a low chance a
scattered storm impacts CKV/BNA/MQY after 21z but the bulk of the
storm activity will move into the terminals after 03z at CKV and
after 06z at BNA/MQY. MVFR cigs and IFR vis are expected with the
storm activity. Winds will be gusty out of the south through the
afternoon with gusts up to 35-40 kts at CKV/BNA/MQY. Gusts up to
35 kts will be possible at SRB/CSV. The gusts will decrease below
25 kts after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  81  67  86 /  80  70  70  40
Clarksville    63  73  63  83 /  90  90 100  70
Crossville     65  81  64  82 /  20  30  30  20
Columbia       67  82  69  86 /  50  50  60  30
Cookeville     66  81  66  84 /  40  40  50  30
Jamestown      65  81  64  84 /  30  40  40  30
Lawrenceburg   69  83  69  85 /  40  40  40  20
Murfreesboro   68  83  67  86 /  50  50  60  20
Waverly        62  73  64  84 / 100  90  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
for TNZ005>011-023>031-056>060-062-093.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan