Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through the week. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect through Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through this afternoon. Localized flooding, frequent
  lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.

- Rain and storm chances will begin to taper off starting on
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

An upper-level ridge continues to build over the central part of the
US, and thanks to this, heat continues to be the main concern over
the next several days. Obs at this hour are already nearing 90
and will likely top out in the mid-90s for most of the area. With
dewpoints in the 70s, this will result in heat indices of 105 to
109 degrees west of the Plateau. A stationary boundary is situated
just north of Kentucky which has aided in thunderstorm
development in this area overnight and this morning. CAMs show
outflows from this activity reaching Middle TN and helping to
develop more thunderstorms with coverage becoming more scattered
through the afternoon. Very little shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates keeps our severe weather threat very low, but the typical
summertime thunderstorm hazards of gusty winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning are all on the table. Steering flow around 20
knots will keep storm motions relatively quick which keeps the
flash flood threat low. But with a PWAT of 1.84 inches on this
morning's sounding (near the 90th percentile), expect heavy rain
with any thunderstorm. Storm coverage will trend down near sunset.

The upper-level high continues to build on Tuesday with its center
near the west TN border by that evening. Highs will continue to warm
to the mid-90s, and with dewpoints staying in the 70s, it'll be
another hot and humid day with heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees.
Drier mid-level air working its way into the area will decrease
thunderstorm coverage. But we won't be completely dry with 20-40%
chance of thunderstorms staying in the forecast through the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The center of the upper high is over Middle TN Wednesday, leading to
one of the hottest days of the week as temperatures warm into the
mid and upper-90s. Dewpoints in the 70s means it'll be once again
miserable with heat indices still staying in that 105 to 109 degree
range. Drier mid-level air continues to work its way into the area
though, lowering thunderstorm coverage to just isolated storms
mainly favoring the Plateau. The center of the high shifts east on
Thursday, "cooling" temperatures by just a couple degrees compared
to Wednesday. Dewpoints also fall just a couple degrees, but it
looks to be enough to finally have heat indices fall below the 105
degree criteria for a Heat Advisory. The thunderstorm risk remains
low Thursday with just isolated storms once again favoring the
Plateau.

The break from the daily scattered storms won't last long though as
the high continues to shift east and moisture pulls back into the
area. With a shortwave moving through the area, this will once again
bring medium to high rain chances back into the forecast Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Scattered storms are impacting eastern middle Tennessee and will
continue until sunset. Lower confidence for KBNA and KMQY
experiencing storms this afternoon, so PROB30 groups remain in
the taf at these sites. Highest confidence remains at CSV, SRB,
and CKV for TSRA impacts. These storms have the potential to
reduce visibility, produce gusty winds, heavy downpours, and have
frequent lightning. Into the evening hours, expect a dry night
with winds being light and variable for all terminals with patchy
fog possible. Cigs drop for KSRB and KCSV to MVFR/IFR later
tonight and returns to VFR around 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  95  75  97 /  30  30  10  20
Clarksville    75  92  74  95 /  30  20  10  10
Crossville     69  87  68  89 /  30  40  10  30
Columbia       74  93  73  95 /  30  40  10  20
Cookeville     71  89  70  91 /  30  30  10  20
Jamestown      69  87  67  91 /  30  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   72  92  72  93 /  30  40  10  20
Murfreesboro   73  93  72  96 /  30  40  10  20
Waverly        74  92  73  95 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....LC/APB

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