Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
712 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- There is a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms this afternoon
  and overnight. Gusty winds and heavy rain are the main hazards,
  but there is a low hail threat and a very low tornado threat as
  well.

- Be prepared for nocturnal severe weather. Have your cell phone charged
  before going to bed and your weather radio turned on in case a
  warning is issued.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across middle
  Tennessee this weekend. Heat indices climb to 100 degrees
  Saturday through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

An upper level trough and MCV from an overnight MCS has pushed
into the Great Lakes. This is pushing a boundary south through OH
into Middle TN. Meso Analysis is showing abundant amount of
MLCAPE of 2000+ j/kg with mid-level lapse rates around 6.5. Bulk
shear is starting to come up and will be 25-30 knots this evening.
This will be enough for some organized cells and strong to severe
storms. The line is already well developed in the west and has
produced a 54 mph wind gust in Clarksville. The better forcing
with the line will remain along and north of I-40 with the
activity more scattered south of I-40. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for counties along and north of I-40 until
midnight. Strong wind gusts are going to be the primary threat
with strong thunderstorms with large hail the secondary threat.
Low level shear will amp up to 20-25 knots and that would be
enough for a tornado but overall the threat looks very low. PWATs
remain 1.70-1.90" and we will see heavy rain with any activity.
Storm motion will be quick and that will keep the flash flooding
threat lower but we may see some training along the line and if we
do we could see localized flash flooding. The main line will
clear the eastern part of the area between 12-2 AM.

Another MCV will work out of MO towards midnight and that may
bring some additional scattered thunderstorms behind this main
line. The atmosphere may be worked over at this point and storms
will have less CAPE to work with. The latest HRRR runs are also
showing the better forcing to our south. This will overall keep
the severe risk on the low side after midnight. Still will have a
heavy rain threat with any thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Satellite shows low clouds over middle Tennessee this morning, with
some puffy cumulus clouds trying to go up already. Today's severe
weather will be two fold. First, a former MCS and MCV will make
their way east into this afternoon (do believe this is what we see
on satellite over Arkansas this morning), which will provide
sufficient lift and forcing to kick off some afternoon convection.
Could see some strong to severe storms with this convection, and SPC
is suggesting these discrete storms would provide more of a large
hail threat. Still thinking some gusty winds and heavy rainfall
could be added to that hazards list as well.

Tonight into Thursday morning will be another story. SPC has placed
our NW counties in a slight risk for severe weather (level 2/5) with
a marginal risk (1/5) across the remainder of the area. Looking at
the CAMs, 2 - 3 waves are shown. The first line moves along the
KY/TN state line in the evening hours Wednesday, and is not really a
threat to the rest of middle Tennessee. The second wave is overnight
into Thursday morning, and affects the entire area. This wave is
split in the CAMs between remaining one continuous line of storms or
splitting into two, where one has more of a southerly push than
easterly. It seems stronger in the guidance west of I-65, and then
kind of fizzles out as it moves east. Guidance continues to show the
possibility of discrete storms ahead of these main lines, which
would cause more severe weather issues, but wind is our main threat
Wednesday evening into Thursday, followed by large hail, and a very
low tornado threat at this time. We are still concerned by the high
PWATs in the area, however, storm motion at this time looks to limit
the flash flooding threat. If we get training storms (multiple
storms going over the same place) or high rainfall rates, we could
see some flash flooding trouble in those areas. Definitely worth
monitoring the hydrological threat tonight as well. With this being
an overnight affair, make sure you have multiple ways to receive
warnings, including one that will wake you up like a weather radio
or cell phone.

Thursday will continue the showers and thunderstorms, but the severe
threat will be marginal and mainly on the plateau as storms exit
east Thursday morning. However, improved bulk shear values and
alright lapse rates mean we could see some stronger afternoon storms
that pose a wind and hail threat. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s,
with heat indices approaching 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The weekend looks largely dry, but humid and hot. A stout ridge will
take hold over the southeast US over the weekend and into next week,
which will limit our rain chances but crank up those temperatures.
Highs look to reach the mid 90s, and the airmass will remain humid
over middle Tennessee, bringing about heat indices that will creep
into the 100s by Saturday. This pattern of daily heat will continue
into mid-week next week, with major heat risk affecting middle
Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. Remember to take frequent breaks in
the air conditioning or shade and drink lots of water if you're
spending any time outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

TS are expected to move into the area this evening and spread
across our TAF sites. Multiple waves will keep showers and storms
in the forecast throughout most of the overnight hours. Have
tempo'd to try and time these out. Gusty southwest winds will
continue until storms move through any given TAF sites tonight.
Lower confidence on scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday
morning and through the afternoon, but are possible. Included a
few prob30 lines for any TS that develop through Thursday morning
and afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  88  68  91 /  80  40   0   0
Clarksville    72  86  67  89 /  90  20   0   0
Crossville     66  80  61  83 /  70  80   0   0
Columbia       70  87  66  89 /  80  50   0   0
Cookeville     68  81  64  84 /  70  60   0   0
Jamestown      66  79  61  83 /  70  70   0   0
Lawrenceburg   69  86  66  89 /  80  60   0   0
Murfreesboro   70  87  66  90 /  70  60   0   0
Waverly        68  85  66  89 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Cravens

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
712 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

TNZ061-062-075-190045-
Rutherford TN-Bedford TN-Marshall TN-
712 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHERN
RUTHERFORD AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Shelbyville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Chapel Hill, Eagleville, Rover, Christiana, Rockvale,
Unionville, and Fosterville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 74 and 90.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 50 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8674 3571 8672 3571 8669 3572 8669
      3572 8670 3594 8643 3574 8624 3554 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 232DEG 33KT 3567 8660

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
805 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Millersville      36.40N 86.69W
06/18/2025                   Sumner             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down blocking Louisville Highway and
            McMurtry Rd in Millersville.

&&

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
808 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

TNZ009-028>030-190145-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
808 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SMITH...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON...MACON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM
CDT...

At 808 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartsville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Carthage, Hartsville, Red Boiling Springs, South Carthage,
Dixon Springs, Pleasant Shade, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area, and
Bugtussle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8579 3622 8598 3626 8631 3664 8613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 218DEG 26KT 3637 8610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
809 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Lobelville        35.74N 87.78W
06/18/2025                   Perry              TN   Public

            Trees down on Jones Hollow Road and Burns
            Ridge.

&&

CM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
815 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 E Mcewen              36.09N 87.52W
06/18/2025                   Dickson            TN   Public

            Large tree down on a property near HWY 70 W
            between McElhiney Road and Lane Road.

&&

CM