Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue into mid-week.
  Severe threat is low, but if there are any, the main hazard
  will be strong winds.

- Monitoring flooding potential next work week. Continue to
  monitor the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Surface obs this morning indicate a weak surface low over OK, and an
associated front is the focus for thunderstorm development. A line
of thunderstorms is taking shape over AR this morning with
additional development behind it in OK & KS. This line over AR is
expected to grow and better organize itself as it dives south and
east. As it does so, it'll clip our southwestern counties which will
have to be monitored for strong to severe potential this afternoon
where a slight risk (level 2 out 5) is still in place. Fortunately,
our severe weather risk remains low with unfavorable parameters.
CAPE values are low at around 500-800 J/kg with bulk shear at around
30-40 knots. Mid- and low-level lapse rates are also unimpressive
at around 6 C/km. HRRR soundings across the area only show a low
severe weather threat through the evening with the main threat
from any stronger storm being strong to potentially damaging
winds. The thunderstorms developing over OK & KS will move into
the area right behind the first wave, more or less following the
same path. Again, unfavorable parameters still show a low severe
weather threat. Thunderstorms will move out of the area late this
evening, with a low chance for lingering light rain overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Our weather pattern remains very unsettled as we begin a new
week. With abundant moisture in place, additional showers and
storms will develop Monday, but it will be that evening and
overnight where more widespread rain moves into the area. This is
due to a shortwave that moves through the area Monday night
through Tuesday, providing additional forcing for greater coverage
and more substantial rain. Models show PWAT values of 1.75 inches
to near 2 inches, which would easily surpass the 90th percentile
for this time of the year and potentially approach daily records.
Forecast soundings are too saturated to suggest much of a severe
weather threat, but with moisture values like this, we'll have to
monitor the flooding potential closely. Especially across the
southwest due to the repeated rounds of rain.

The shortwave exits our area Tuesday, but our daily rain chances
continue with a troughing pattern setting up over the eastern CONUS.
An unsettled pattern and plenty of moisture still hanging around
keeps low to medium rain chances in the forecast through Friday.
We'll likely be entering a more summer-like pattern with isolated
to scattered storms following a diurnal pattern. A weak front
moves through the area Friday, finally scouring out our moisture
which means that a drier weekend is currently favored.
Unfortunately, we won't be cooling off post-front as temperatures
make their way back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Ceilings will continue lowering into MVFR conditions through the
TAF period. SH and TS will continue moving from west to east
across all TAF sites into the 03z hour. Low ceilings will persist
once the rain clears the area, and winds will remain northeasterly
or variable under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  77  67  80 /  60  70  90 100
Clarksville    60  73  65  76 /  50  70 100  90
Crossville     57  72  61  73 /  60  70 100  90
Columbia       62  77  67  80 /  70  80  90  90
Cookeville     58  75  64  76 /  50  60 100 100
Jamestown      55  74  60  74 /  50  50 100 100
Lawrenceburg   63  78  66  79 /  70  80  90  90
Murfreesboro   61  77  66  81 /  60  80  90 100
Waverly        58  72  63  76 /  60  80 100  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Holley

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