Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
544 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today and a
  enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for Tuesday.

- Strong winds and small hail possible with any storms that
  develops evening. For Tuesday, all modes of severe weather are
  possible, with greatest threats including damaging winds, large
  hail, and tornadoes.

- Much cooler and drier air will push across the area by mid-week
  continuing into the first half of next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

No major changes to the forecast this evening. A few storms have
popped up over the past couple hours across the northwest. Plenty
of instability is available, but limited shear keeps our severe
weather threat low through the remainder of the evening. This
evening's storms will taper off after sunset, but a more active
day is on tap for Tuesday with multiple rounds of storms expected.
The discussion below still highlights our severe potential
tomorrow well. Bottom line is that all severe weather hazards are
possible, particularly during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through portions of the CWA
this morning. This activity will continue into the late morning
then dissipate through the afternoon as we lose our bulk shear and
the frontal boundary pushes further north. Through the late afternoon
into early evening, we will see some increase in instability and
bulk shear which will allow for some storms to fire off. Some of
these storms could be strong, but overall, storm coverage is
looking minimal with a low chance for storms to become severe.
Greatest threat will be strong winds and small hail with the
strongest storms.

Tonight, there will be some lingering showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday morning, the environment slowly becomes more suitable for
stronger storms as a strong mid-level jet (60-70 kts) moves over
and cooler temperatures aloft increase lapse rates through the
afternoon. The atmosphere looks to remain uncapped Tuesday
morning, so once we see increased surface heating through the
early afternoon, storm activity will become more widespread going
into the late afternoon into the overnight period.

Timing and exact locations of storms will be a challenge to narrow
down heading into tomorrows severe threat due to the uncertainty
in Tuesday mornings convection. If we see more widespread activity
through the morning, the environment will have a hard time
recovering in time for afternoon and evening storms. At this time,
there are signals pointing towards a mid-level dry slot developing
through the morning which would allow for the environment to see
good recoveries. If this verifies, then the best time for
strongest storms will be during the late afternoon into the late
evening. All hazards will be possible during this time. Greatest
threats will include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
Expect heavy downpours which could lead to some localized flooding
of poor drainage or low lying areas, but significant flooding
isn't expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 914 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Storm activity diminishes Tuesday night with most activity our of
the Middle TN by midnight. Calmer weather with drier conditions
develop Wednesday through Thursday. Highs will be cooler, only
climbing into the 60s and 70s. As the trough lifts east, there
will be some light rain chances across the east, but other than
that, mostly dry conditions set up through end of the week.
Temperatures warm back through the weekend with some increasing
showers and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday as a shortwave
displaces our surface ridge axis off to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. That said,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening into
early Tuesday morning. If one of these storms moves over a terminal,
a short period of reduced VIS and lower CIGs could be possible.
Confidence on storms location and timing is low at this time.
South winds increase and become gusty through the end of the TAF
period, after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  86  64  80 /  30  90  60   0
Clarksville    70  84  62  77 /  60 100  30   0
Crossville     64  81  60  73 /  20  90  90  10
Columbia       71  84  61  79 /  20  90  50   0
Cookeville     67  82  62  74 /  30  90  80  10
Jamestown      64  83  60  74 /  30  90  90  10
Lawrenceburg   70  84  61  79 /  20  90  60   0
Murfreesboro   70  86  62  80 /  20  90  60   0
Waverly        69  83  59  77 /  40  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

TNZ006-025-026-192300-
Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
524 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Ashland City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasant View, Cheatham Dam, and Clarksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 8713 3646 8713 3646 8712 3644 8710
      3645 8709 3643 8709 3639 8700 3621 8717
      3629 8740 3653 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 208DEG 17KT 3630 8725

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CED