Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
911 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 909 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

- A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes
  of severe weather to Middle Tennessee this evening through 3 am
  Saturday morning. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will
  all be possible.

- Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend, though the
  severe threat will be lower after tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The forecast is on track. There are no appreciable changes to our
messaging. All of Middle Tennessee is now under a Tornado Watch
until 08Z, and the leading edge of the incoming line of storms is
closing in on Land-between-the-Lakes. Instability across that
portion of Middle Tennessee is still off-the-charts, with CAPE
values of 3,500 to 4,000 J/kg and lifted indices of -12 to -13.
Helicity values have dropped off some (generally 175 to 200). Of
note, the 00Z sounding from OHX does show that the elevated
inversion that has persisted for several days now has strengthened
so that we might find ourselves capped off at some point later on
tonight after the boundary layer has cooled some. But for now,
we're preparing for severe storms to enter the county warning
area shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The earlier severe watch has been allowed to expire. There were a
couple of storms that became perky. The CAMS are showing the
possibility of a few discrete storms this afternoon. The main
threat with these discrete storms will be wind and hail. The
stronger storms will be with the line of storms this evening and
into the overnight hours. Please see previous AFD for the details.

Highlights...the discrete storms will form into a line most
likely entering the northwest forecast area between 8 to 10 pm.
Nashville Metro entering around 10 to midnight. Exiting the
Cumberland Plateau around 2 to 3 am. This will be a fast moving
line. All forms of severe weather will be possible from winds to
70 mph...large hail...and tornadoes. Since the storms will be
moving so fast flooding is not a first level concern unless there
are some training storms.

As mentioned previously...now is the time to make sure
preparations are in place. Make sure your friends and family are
aware too and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Unsettled weather will still be possible next week. There is a
marginal risk (1/5) on Sunday as a warm front moves north across
middle TN. A low moves out New Mexico/Colorado with a warm front
that will meander around the southeast US Sunday through Wednesday.
Being spring time...afternoon and evening strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible.

Thursday will be "best" weather day with the lowest chance for
rain.

Temperatures for the long term will be highs in the upper 70s to
middle 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

We are still expecting a line of storms to move through the mid-
state this evening which will likely cause disruptions as it does.
It doesn't look like much of a wind-shift or low CIGS but VIS
reduction to IFR can be expected. Amendments might be needed once
the storms approach or timing changes. After 07-08Z storms should
be out of the area with VFR conditions and southwest winds with
gusts to about 20kts tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  88  66  85 /  90   0  20  50
Clarksville    65  84  63  82 /  80   0  20  30
Crossville     62  80  60  79 /  90   0  10  40
Columbia       66  87  65  83 /  80   0  20  60
Cookeville     64  82  61  80 /  90   0  10  40
Jamestown      62  82  58  79 /  90   0  10  30
Lawrenceburg   66  86  64  82 /  80   0  20  60
Murfreesboro   67  87  64  83 /  90   0  20  50
Waverly        64  84  63  82 /  90   0  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....05

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