Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

- Major life-threatening flooding is expected to develop for
  northwest Middle Tennessee late tonight through Sunday morning.
  Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be common with
  localized 6-7 inch amounts. Additional rain will quickly
  aggravate existing flood conditions and produce new flash
  flooding. Emergency personnel and resources should be ready to
  activate for evacuations and water rescues. River levels will
  remain elevated into next week, including the Cumberland and
  Duck Rivers.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon and
  evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and torrential downpours
  will be the main features, and there will be a risk for
  tornadoes. All of middle Tennessee is at risk, however the best
  concern is west of I-65 and south of I-40.

- General thunderstorms can be expected for locations east of
  I-65 on Sunday. In addition, rivers and creeks will be running
  high and several river flood points will run above action and
  flood stages through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The ending to this round of severe weather is in site. The
boundary is meandering northward for the next several hours and it
will move south again overnight and tomorrow. There will finally
be enough umph to push this mess out of middle TN by Monday.
Additional 2 to 6 inches of rain will be possible...and falling
over already saturated soil could spell disaster. The flash flood
watch has been extended eastward another row of counties. Even
with the rain coming to an end rivers and creeks will continue to
run high.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

High pressure will begin to sink south at the beginning of the
long term forecast providing some very needed relief. The
temperatures will definitely feel cooler behind the front. Lows
and highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Another low and cold front drops down from Canada Thursday/Friday.
The extended models still have some timing and strength differences
to work out. Right now this system looks to fast moving for our
area and no severe weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Another round of heavy rain...showers and thunderstorms expected
this evening and tonight. CKV will remain IFR/MVFR while BNA/MQY
will become IFR after 00Z and CSV/SRB after 05Z. The heaviest rain
will begin to move out west to east tomorrow starting around 14Z
at CKV. Even after the rain tappers off...CIGS will remain low at
IFR/MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  67  42  60 /  90  80  20   0
Clarksville    50  57  38  61 / 100  60  10   0
Crossville     60  67  41  52 /  80  90  50  10
Columbia       58  69  41  59 /  90  80  20   0
Cookeville     60  68  41  54 /  90  90  40  10
Jamestown      58  67  39  53 /  80 100  50  10
Lawrenceburg   62  70  43  58 /  90  80  30   0
Murfreesboro   59  69  41  58 /  90  90  30   0
Waverly        50  59  38  60 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     Flash Flood      3 WSW Waverly           36.08N 87.84W
04/05/2025                   Humphreys          TN   Trained Spotter

            Videos and photos received of high water
            blocking Brown Town Road near entrance of
            Walmart in Waverly. Car stalled in high
            water.

&&

APB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
207 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

TNZ005-006-023-051945-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
207 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONTGOMERY...STEWART AND
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Erin, Cumberland City, Houston County Airport, Land Between The
Lakes, Indian Mound, Dover, Palmyra, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock,
Woodlawn, and Clarksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8734 3634 8755
      3625 8795 3631 8796 3635 8798 3637 8800
      3645 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 230DEG 40KT 3647 8809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Baggett