River Flood Warning 9, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through this evening with chances for
  damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

- Heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
  poor drainage areas, especially west of I-65.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 45 mph through this
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning as the warm front
pushes northward. Right now storms have stayed mostly sub severe,
with some small hail reported. But, instability and additional
moisture will move northward through the day, increasing the fuel
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Very strong low to mid
level shear will increase the threat for strong updrafts and
storms able to produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and even
tornadoes, especially in the southern half of the area in the
moderate risk. The limiting factor so far has been the warmer air
aloft capping a lot of the convection from going severe, but with
the warm front lifting northward, surface warming will continue
and allow for the cap to weaken to increase the severe threat.
Models continue to show the cap weakening and surface based CAPE
increasing through the afternoon, so remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

PWAT values will also continue to increase, and with high rain
rates and training of heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be
a threat this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain should move out of
the area after midnight, but lingering showers will be possible
through mid day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Drier and cooler conditions will start the week as the deep trough
over the eastern CONUS continues eastward. Temps will warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in ahead of the next
trough, and rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The cold front associated with that trough will dry the
region out quite a bit, and may increase the fire weather threat
for Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shot at rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Widespread light rain with embedded heavier showers and
thunderstorms will continue through 05Z. TAF obs have seen
inconsistent yet drastic changes in ceilings and visibilities over
short periods of times due to the nature of this convection, so
have opted to keep a TEMPO group at all sites to account for this
the first few hours of the TAF period. A second round of showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
north-central Tennessee (KBNA, KMSQ, KCKV) between 08Z and 12Z. A
third and final round of thunderstorms is expected to impact
eastern Tennessee (KSRB, KCSV) sometime between 17 and 20Z. To
focus on the ongoing round of convection, have kept these latter
rounds of convection as a SHRA FM group, and will be amended in
subsequent updates to introduce the mention of thunder in TAFs and refine
the time line for thunderstorm potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  60  34 / 100 100  60   0
Clarksville    71  47  55  32 / 100  90  50   0
Crossville     69  50  60  29 /  90 100  70  10
Columbia       72  50  60  32 / 100 100  50   0
Cookeville     72  51  60  31 /  90 100  70   0
Jamestown      70  50  61  29 /  90 100  70  10
Lawrenceburg   70  49  58  32 /  90  90  40   0
Murfreesboro   74  51  61  31 / 100 100  60   0
Waverly        69  48  57  33 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
552 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Berry Hill        36.12N 86.75W
03/15/2025                   Davidson           TN   Public

            Deep water covering the road at I-440 and
            Nolensville Pike.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
554 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Mcminnville       35.68N 85.77W
03/15/2025                   Warren             TN   Public

            Numerous downed trees were reported in the
            McMinnville area. Time estimate from radar.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Palmer                  35.35N 85.57W
03/15/2025                   Grundy             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down and structure damage to homes in
            Palmer. Time estimated by radar.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
614 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Flash Flood      7 SSW Clarkrange        36.09N 85.06W
03/15/2025                   Cumberland         TN   Public

            Water flooding Highway 127N between
            Crossville and Clarkrange.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
803 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     Flash Flood      3 N West Point          35.17N 87.54W
03/15/2025                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Wisdom Rd near West Point completely washed
            out.

&&

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