Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1158 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Below normal temperatures will continue this week.

- An unsettled pattern is expected through midweek before lower
  rain chances late in the week.

- The severe thunderstorm threat is very low for at least the
  next 8 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A surface trough has drifted westward into the eastern third of our
area. Scattered showers have been ongoing across the eastern half
this morning. Scattered showers will continue through the
afternoon before becoming less numerous after dark. Instability is
weak so thunder chances will be low but not zero. CAMs have been
showing the potential for some training through the afternoon but
PWAT values are marginal for this time of year. With that said,
there is a low chance (25%) some areas along and east of I-65 pick
up an inch to two inches of rain through the evening hours. The
HREF shows there is about a 10% chance that a couple localized
areas exceed 2 inches. With the clouds and ongoing showers,
locations along and east of I-65 will struggle to get out of the
70s this afternoon.

The surface trough will drift westward into West Tennessee tonight
and into Monday. A upper trough axis will approach the area
Monday afternoon. Models show mainly diurnal activity on Monday
with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s
but still well below normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The upper trough will be slow to move with the axis still in West
Tennessee by Tuesday afternoon. This will keep the medium shower and
storm chances in the forecast and keep the below normal temperatures
going. As we move through midweek, the trough will slowly weaken and
broaden. Temperatures will begin to warm into the upper 80s by
Thursday and Friday and rain chances will decrease. It looks like
some temperatures in the 90s will join us again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

MVFR CIGs continue at all TAFs sites. CIGs will lift and become
VFR by 00Z. There is a good chance/60% chance/ of TAF sites on
the Plateau KCSV and KSRB and KCKV going back to MVFR towards
sunrise. Scattered showers will be present across middle TN
especially for locations along I-40 and eastward. There could be
heavier showers and thunderstorms. Since these will be scattered
in nature will cover with SHRA and VCTS and amend TAFs as needed.

Winds will be N/NE and then swinging more SE by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  69  82  68 /  60  40  30  20
Clarksville    83  67  82  67 /  30  30  40  20
Crossville     73  61  77  61 /  80  30  40  40
Columbia       80  66  81  66 /  50  30  30  20
Cookeville     76  64  79  64 /  80  30  40  30
Jamestown      75  63  79  63 /  80  40  50  40
Lawrenceburg   78  65  80  64 /  60  30  30  20
Murfreesboro   79  66  82  66 /  70  30  30  20
Waverly        83  66  81  65 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....12