Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will
  continue for the foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

- It'll be hot and humid each afternoon with Heat Index values
  above 100 in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau -- even
  hotter next week!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An extremely stagnant weather pattern persists across Middle TN --
so much so that visible satellite and surface observations look
almost identical to this time yesterday. Temperatures at this hour
are just below yesterday's curve, so I think we're good without the
Heat Advisory. However, the differential heating that will result
from the obvious boundary blanketed across the mid-state is likely
to once again spark showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
the early evening hours. Looking over CAMs and NBM guidance, there
seems to be a continuity between the two suggesting our northwest
quadrant (north of I-40 and west of I-65) as the favored area for
heavy rain today. This is not to say that other areas won't see
rain, but the stronger QPF signals are coming from this area. HREF
data suggests 50-70% chance for greater than 1 inch and at least
a 10% chance of 3+ inches. For this reason, interests in this part
of the mid-state will want to monitor our social media channels
and the radar as environmental conditions still present a concern
for heavy rainfall over a short period of time potentially leading
to localized flooding. Gusty winds and lots of lightning will
also be hazards this afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor
plans, please remain weather aware. Storms should wane prior to 9
pm and those who see rain will likely deal with patchy fog in the
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

I'm inclined to pull up yesterday's AFD to copy and paste the rest
of the discussion. It hasn't changed a lick. Low triple digit heat
index values, along with low to medium diurnal thunderstorm chances
each afternoon. Heard that before?

Extended guidance also remains consistent. Upper level ridging is
expected to start exerting itself over the region Monday into
Tuesday and for the rest of the week, the resultant temperatures
will be mid to upper 90s -- on the mercury -- west of the Cumberland
Plateau. Heat Index values that are being spit out during this time
frame surpass 110 degrees in several areas which means we may very
well surpass Heat Advisory conditions and climb right into that
Excessive Heat territory for the second half of next week. This
should reduce thunderstorm coverage each day, but not eliminate it
all together.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Generally, VFR conditions and calm southerly winds will prevail
across the area outside of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Some
showers already have developed across the midstate, primarily
along the Plateau Escarpment. As such, TEMPOs for CSV and SRB are
in place. In regard to CKV, a TEMPO group has also been added
since the latest CAMs hint at thunderstorms developing in the
near term. Further development eastward is possible through the
afternoon to early evening (though confidence is lower), so
PROB30s have been added for BNA and MQY.

MVFR ceilings are expected to move in tomorrow morning, around
12Z. As such, patchy fog may be possible overnight for those who
receive rainfall today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  91  76  95 /  50  70  50  40
Clarksville    76  89  76  93 /  50  50  40  30
Crossville     69  84  70  88 /  30  80  60  60
Columbia       74  89  73  93 /  30  60  50  40
Cookeville     71  84  72  89 /  30  80  60  60
Jamestown      70  84  71  87 /  30  80  70  70
Lawrenceburg   72  88  72  91 /  30  70  50  40
Murfreesboro   74  89  73  94 /  40  70  50  50
Waverly        74  89  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....DR/APB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
304 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

TNZ011-033-034-182045-
Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
304 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OVERTON...WESTERN
PICKETT AND NORTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Byrdstown. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Byrdstown, and Allardt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8501 3637 8489 3638 8529 3654 8526
      3662 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 239DEG 2KT 3650 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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