Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- We have one more day of the week-long Heat Advisory tomorrow as
  temperatures are about to start backing off. Hot and humid
  weather will continue, but the period of dangerous heat is about
  to end.

- Rain chances will gradually increase as we head into the weekend
  and early next week.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow across
  Middle Tennessee east of I-65. Damaging winds are the main
  threat with any storms that develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

As expected, high pressure at the surface and aloft has weakened
considerably across Middle Tennessee, but only isolated storms
managed to form during the late afternoon and early evening today.
The 00Z sounding from OHX does show considerable instability,
with a surface-based CAPE of 4,106 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -9.
Lapse rate in the 700-500 mb layer isn't all that impressive
(5.7C/km) and there is no wind shear to speak of. In fact, the
wind profile throughout the column is remarkably weak, hence the
slow movement of the convection that has developed. Precipitable
Water is 1.66", which is right at the 75th percentile for this
date climatologically. This isn't surprising given the high
rainfall rates we have seen with some of the storms. It appears
that a weak surface boundary may interact with the unstable
environment to produce additional storms tomorrow afternoon and
evening, hence the marginal risk covering most of Middle Tennessee
east of I-65. After tomorrow, there are no risk areas that
include Middle Tennessee out through day 8, despite the medium to
high PoPs that are in place beginning this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

After tomorrow, temperatures will back off just enough so that the
Heat Advisory that has been in place all week will no longer be
needed. Hot, humid weather will continue for the foreseeable
future, but dangerous levels of heat won't stick around. We expect
medium to high rain and storms chances through next Tuesday or
thereabouts, with a surface boundary potentially coming through
around that time that would bring lower rain chances for the
remainder of next week. This remains to be seen, as we are now in
that time of year when clean frontal passages in Middle Tennessee
are hard to come by. Regardless, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks favor above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall
across all of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Once again, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.
Winds will become more out of the SW today, with some SCT clouds
moving in and the possibility of TSRA in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  74  92  75 /  40  10  90  10
Clarksville    92  73  91  73 /  20  10  80  10
Crossville     88  67  86  67 /  50  30  50  20
Columbia       92  71  91  71 /  40  10 100  10
Cookeville     89  69  87  70 /  50  20  60  10
Jamestown      89  67  87  67 /  50  30  60  10
Lawrenceburg   91  70  90  70 /  50  10  80  20
Murfreesboro   93  71  92  72 /  50  20  80  10
Waverly        91  71  89  71 /  30  10  80  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1043 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

TNZ093-271630-
Wayne TN-
1043 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...

At 1042 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Collinwood and just southeast of Waynesboro. Movement was east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro and Collinwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8784 3526 8787 3539 8760 3511 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 263DEG 12KT 3519 8777

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1045 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

TNZ058-060-271615-
Lewis TN-Maury TN-
1045 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LEWIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...

At 1045 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summertown, or 15 miles north of Lawrenceburg. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8729 3545 8730 3545 8732 3546 8733
      3551 8735 3557 8719 3546 8714 3544 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 261DEG 4KT 3547 8727

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1102 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

TNZ058-060-093>095-271630-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
1102 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LEWIS...WAYNE...LAWRENCE...
SOUTHWESTERN MAURY AND GILES COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...

At 1100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across Wayne, Lawrence, Lewis, Giles, and southern Maury Counties.
The strongest storms stretched from Collinwood to Pulaski. Movement
was east at only 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Hohenwald, Waynesboro, Mount
Pleasant, Loretto, Collinwood, and Summertown.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8793 3537 8793 3549 8773 3548 8772
      3552 8769 3559 8758 3560 8704 3499 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 254DEG 5KT 3522 8775 3518 8704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

13