Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and
  especially this weekend.

- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft remains the dominant
weather feature affecting Middle Tennessee, but its influence is
soon to be on the wane. We've about 2 more days of excessive heat,
then temperatures will begin trending closer to seasonal normals.
As the ridge starts to break down, we can expect more convective
activity tomorrow afternoon than what we've seen the past couple
of days. Although instability parameters won't be quite as
impressive tomorrow as they were today, we will nonetheless still
have plenty of instability around, some additional moisture, and
less subsidence so that convection will be more prevalent on
Thursday. As a result, the SPC has placed a significant portion of
Middle Tennessee (mainly areas to the east and south of
Nashville) under a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow, with
damaging winds being the primary threat. Rain and storm chances
will continue to increase on Friday and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Medium to high rain and storm chances will settle in for the
weekend and into early next week. Owing to the increased cloud
cover and breakdown of the warm, southerly flow, temperatures by
this weekend and into next week will ease off and be a little more
tolerable. It appears that we will be treated to a frontal
passage/shortwave passage on Tuesday, so we can expect PoPs to
drop off beginning around middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Mostly VFR conditions this morning with the exception of some
reduced VIS over the Cumberland Plateau and thunderstorms over the
southern portion of the CWA causing MVFR CIGs and VIS. Storm
activity will diminish through the morning along with the reduced
VIS over the Upper Cumberland. Light and variable winds are
expected today with VFR conditions. This afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms develop across the CWA. Tonight, some areas of
reduced VIS is possible throughout Middle TN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  75  93  75 /  20  10  30  10
Clarksville    95  75  92  74 /  10  10  30  10
Crossville     90  68  87  68 /  40  20  50  20
Columbia       95  73  91  72 /  30  10  30  10
Cookeville     91  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
Jamestown      91  69  88  68 /  30  20  40  20
Lawrenceburg   93  71  90  71 /  30  20  40  20
Murfreesboro   95  73  92  73 /  30  20  30  20
Waverly        94  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

TNZ094-095-261130-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
604 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL GILES COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM CDT...

At 603 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pulaski, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Elkton, Minor Hill, Lynnville, Goodspring, and
Leoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8688 3500 8712 3520 8741 3539 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1103Z 149DEG 20KT 3510 8705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CC