Tornado Warning 23, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening, mainly
  after 9 PM. A few of the storms may become severe with locally
  damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Another line of
  storms will then move in from the west after 11 PM, with
  additional heavy rainfall and areas of damaging winds. The
  greatest potential for severe weather and flash flooding is
  near and south of a Seward to Omaha to Harlan line.

- Additional thunderstorms may persist through Sunday night in
  far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, possibly leading to
  additional heavy rain and flood potential.

- Seasonal temperatures and mainly dry conditions build in for
  the work week, with a slow but steady warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Early Saturday evening, a warm front stretched across northern
Kansas. Temperatures south of this front were quite warm with
ample instability. To the north of the front, temperatures were
a bit more moderate but dewpoints holding in the mid 70s have
led to 3000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE all the way up to I-80. Forcing
is limited, for now, but as the evening progresses, an
intensifying low level jet will nose into southern NE and bring
the convergence necessary to initiate and sustain convection.
Forecast soundings suggest that initial convection will be
elevated, rooted around 800-850 hPa, but with limited inhibition
from the surface, it seems quite plausible that this activity
may transition to surface based storms. This points to an
increasing potential for damaging winds, initially in the form
of more localized downbursts. However, if we look upstream to
northeast Colorado, we'll see the influence of an incoming short
wave trough with height falls, as well as persistent upslope
high terrain flow. The result is an ongoing broad cluster of
thunderstorms. It is increasingly likely that these storms will
develop a bit of a cold pool and progress nearly due east with a
focus near and south of I-80 down into northern KS. While much
of this hinges on cold pool development, if that cold pool does
in fact come together, it would seem likely to support severe
winds along its path. So all in all, expect an initial chance
for isolated severe wind and hail, followed by some (seemingly
growing) potential for an organized wind storm especially near
and south of I-80.

The other factor through this period is heavy rain. There is
ample moisture and instability to work with, a solid LLJ with
moisture transport, and potential for some of these heavy
convective cores to persist in a given location for 2-4 hours.
Several models are producing pockets of up to 5" of rain, and
this is quite reasonable if it plays out as expected, so have
issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of southeast NE and
southwest IA.

Beyond this, some thunderstorms may persist in far southern
parts of the forecast area again on Sunday night, and the Flash
Flood watch continues into Sunday night for a few counties in
far southeast NE, but the axis of greatest concern will depend
quite a bit on how tonight plays out. Then the rest of the week
is mainly dry with seasonal temperatures and a slow-but-steady
warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

QLCS beginning to evolve across southern portion of the CWA just
before midnight. East-west oriented convection moving north-
northeast in two separate bands, arcing from KYJR to just west
of KLNK and KHJH to KBIE. Based on CAMs, the QLCS will further
evolve and grow upscale into larger MCS.

Used HRRR as the basis of timing of the MCS as it moves across
the southern portions of the CWA. Timing of storms into KLNK
between 07-08z, with HRRR wind gusts with convection in the
45-55kt range, so split the difference and included VRB25G50kt
for the KLNK TAF. Storms will reach the Omaha metro between
08-09z, with most intense storms looking to pass south of KOMA,
with KOFF and KPMV more likely to experience wind gusts 45-55kt.
Expect ceilings during the most intense storms to lower to
FL030-035, with scattered clouds in MVFR categories.

After the main line of storms passes to the east, non-severe
convection will longer for 1-2 hours, before gradually waning
between 12z-14z. Ceilings will gradually rise to FL050-060 by
14-16z.

Didn't add much detail to the latter portion of TAF. There's a
10-20 percent chance of another round of storms developing
around midnight Monday, with differences in location and timing
by the CAMS. Thus left mention out for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ066>068-078-088>090.
     Flood Watch through late Sunday night for NEZ091>093.
IA...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Fortin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101200-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
524 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening, focused mainly
south of a Columbus to West Point to Onawa line. A few of these
storms may become severe with locally damaging winds, hail, and
heavy rainfall. The greatest chance for a severe storm or flooding
will be near and south of a Seward to Omaha to Harlan line. Much
of southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa are under a Flash
Flood Watch through tonight.

The potential for isolated severe weather and flooding rainfall
will continue through late Sunday, primarily in extreme southeast
Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

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