Tornado Warning 10, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat this evening (15-45% chance, mainly 5-10
 PM). Primary threat: large hail up to baseballs. Secondary
  threats: damaging winds 60-70 mph and tornadoes.

- Shower chances return to the region Sunday though confidence
  is low in exact timing/placement of the heaviest rain.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms toward the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

The cold front is currently located along a line from Sioux City
to Humphrey with moisture pooling along and ahead of the frontal
boundary. Dew points are running a bit higher than earlier
forecasts, already up around 60 degrees in many locations. This
has led to a greater amount of cloud cover across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa in the warm sector. Temperatures are
still forecast to get up into the 80s this afternoon with storms
developing along the cold front between 5-6 PM between Columbus
and Thurston Counties.

CAMs have been consistently developing storms along the front
right around 5-6 PM. As we approach storm initiation time, we'll
see a dry line set up along our western counties of Butler to
Jefferson Counties. This will create a triple-point on the east
side of the approaching surface low along or just north of the
Kansas state line. Strong southerly flow increasing into the
afternoon will enhance low-level helicity in the warm sector
ahead of the cold front. High LCLs around 1500-1800 ft will at
least initially limit shear in the lowest 1km, but 0-3km SRH
values of around 150-300 m2/s2 indicate a good potential for
supercell development. LCLs will be lowering as we get later in
the evening hours, increasing the potential for lower-based
supercells which could produce tornadoes. The greatest threat
with these storms will be large hail up to the size of
baseballs. Tornadoes and damaging wind will also be possible as
well.

The greatest uncertainty with this system is how far south
storms will develop. This morning guidance was trending farther
north with storm development, mostly keeping storms north of the
Omaha Metro. Later guidance has started bringing that potential
back to the south, with storms as far south as Lincoln now
possible. Greatest confidence is in storms developing around
Omaha northward. In any case, the storm farthest south will
likely have the best tornadic potential as it should have a
clear, untapped inflow region. Again, storms will develop around
5-6 PM, moving through Omaha/Council Bluffs around 7-8 PM. The
HRRR develops a trailing supercell out toward Lincoln around 9
PM, but this appears to be an outlier. For the most part storms
should be east of our area by 10 PM, but if the outlier scenario
occurs, we could have one last storm which exits our area around
midnight.

Overnight, skies will be clearing behind the cold front with
northerly winds bringing in cooler temperatures. Low clouds will
develop across our area becoming widespread by daybreak. We
could see some pockets of light rain or drizzle develop in the
low clouds overnight into early Friday, but these should end by
7 AM. Clouds will remain socked in through the day on Friday
with highs only warming into the mid-50s Friday afternoon.

Over the weekend we'll see the upper-level trough over the
Rockies sink farther south, developing a strong surface low over
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region. This will keep cooler
temperatures locked in over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
With skies clearing on Saturday, we will see temperatures warm
to around 60 Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, the northern
periphery of the precip shield will clip our area with highest
chances across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. These
areas could see rain through most of the day while areas in
northeast Nebraska could get missed completely or only see a few
periods of light rain.

Going into next week we'll see that upper-level trough kick off
to the east bringing back more zonal flow for the first half of
the week. High temperatures will warm back into the 70s starting
Monday, approaching 80 on Tuesday. We'll want to watch the
overnight hours Monday night into early Tuesday for a potential
MCS as we see a weak shortwave move across our area interacting
with a strong low-level jet. Beyond that we see troughing
redevelop over the western CONUS bringing us back into a
southwesterly flow regime with increased chances for showers and
storms going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Several concerns for this TAF period. 23z radar imagery shows a
line of supercell thunderstorms from just northwest of KLNK
toward KAHQ to KFET to KTQE. This line will continue to advance
eastward through the evening hours, reaching KOMA by the 01z
timeframe. Have only included mentions of -TSRA in KOMA TAF
given confidence is higher here that the terminal could see
direct impacts. Storms look to remain to the northwest of KLNK,
but have included CB mentions in cloud decks and have also
included a TEMPO for strong wind gusts associated with the
thunderstorm outflow boundary. Expect localized visibility
reductions to MVFR or IFR within any storms. Storms will exit
the area after 3z or 4z.

MVFR ceilings will return late tonight behind the frontal
boundary and persist through about 20z-21z. Winds will switch
to the northwest after 00z or 01z for KOMA and KLNK, and will be
gusty around 20-30 kts throughout the period before subsiding
late in the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Castillo/Barjenbruch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
233 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-180945-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
233 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms become likely between 5-10 PM this evening, with a
15-45% chance of severe storms. The primary threat will be large
hail, but a few damaging wind gusts are also possible and a
tornado cannot be ruled out. Best chance for storms along and
north of I-80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
822 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     Hail             4 N Thurman             40.87N 95.75W
04/17/2025  E1.75 Inch       Fremont            IA   Trained Spotter

&&

BLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
823 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Hail             2 NW Mcclelland         41.35N 95.71W
04/17/2025  E4.00 Inch       Pottawattamie      IA   Public

&&

tsn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
833 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     Tornado          3 S Tabor               40.85N 95.67W
04/17/2025                   Fremont            IA   Storm Chaser

&&

BLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
834 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Tornado          5 SW Randolph           40.82N 95.62W
04/17/2025                   Fremont            IA   Storm Chaser

            Live video feed and TDS confirm tornado.

&&

BLB

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