Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers, perhaps with a few embedded thunderstorms,
  will bring gusty winds to northeast NE this evening.

- There will be a few showers possible on Tuesday, with a strong
  to severe storm or two possible in southwest east NE and
  southwest IA by evening.

- Expect several additional chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
  through Friday, and again by late Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

It's been a beautiful day with sunny skies and midday
temperatures mostly in the 60s. There st still a frontal
boundary that will move into northeast NE this evening, and then
slowly settle southward through the area tonight, and then
stall south of I80 on Tuesday. This front could bring showers
and thunderstorms to areas to northeast NE this evening, with
small chances along/south of I80 overnight, but a much better
chance that it remains dry. The severe weather threat looks
low in northeast NE, but the showers may still bring gusty
winds.

There could be lingering spotty showers along the frontal
boundary Tuesday morning, and with the front stalled in
southeast NE and southwest IA Tuesday afternoon and evening,
there's an additional chance of thunderstorms along it. SPC
expanded the marginal risk for severe storms to accommodate the
stalled boundary. The HRRR would keep storms in southwest IA,
but the Nam Nest is a little more robust with potential
convection along the KS/NE border through the evening. And then
additional spotty showers will be possible after midnight into
Wednesday morning, either in proximity to the front, or moving
in from the west. High temperatures Tuesday will provide another
spectacular day with highs in the 70s.

The front may lift back northward on Wednesday, which will
provide focus for showers and thunderstorms to become likely
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SPC focuses the severe
threat farther east across the western High Plains. However, a
warm front in the vicinity with convection possible along the
east west front could still lead to severe storm chances, if
not potentially heavy rain, so we'll be watching for that. And
that east/west line of storms could also linger into the
overnight hours. The ECMWF is a little farther south with the
frontal boundary, so the exact latitudinal placement is yet to
be determined.

Rain chances could continue Thursday into early Friday morning
as another frontal boundary pushes in to the area, but rain
chances may be tapering off during the day Friday into Saturday.
The front cools highs back into the 60s for Friday and Saturday.
But another wave coming out of the Rockies could bring more rain
chances Saturday into Sunday, but then ending by Monday.

It's nice to the see the Spring rainy pattern return. We need
the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

A cold front is working its way into northeast Nebraska,
bringing a line of showers, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of
thunder. Expect showers to make it to KOFK within the next hour
or two, and reach KOMA by around 05Z this evening. The line is
less likely to hold together as it moves towards KLNK, but a
spotty shower or storm can't be completely ruled out. LLWS is
likely over southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa for a few
hours tonight, 05-10Z at KOMA and 03-06Z at KLNK. Winds will
eventually turn to the north behind the front Tuesday morning.
Another round of storms is expected to develop Tuesday evening,
but should remain southeast of the TAF sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
152 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-220900-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
152 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening across northeast
Nebraska. The probability of severe storms is low, but the
strongest activity could produce a few minutes of gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected south of Interstate 80
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk of
severe storms in that area, with hail and gusty winds the primary
hazards.

There are additional chances for thunderstorms this week, a few
strong to severe, Wednesday through Friday and late Sunday.
Locally heavy rains will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected tonight or tomorrow.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>