Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger continues over northeast
  Nebraska this afternoon.

- A complex system brings strong winds, potential for severe
  storms, and more fire weather danger Friday.

- Rain turns to snow Saturday morning with very strong
  northerly winds potentially creating whiteout conditions at
  times (40% chance) in northeast Nebraska.

- Another system could bring accumulating snow to the area
  Wednesday (10-30% chance of plowable snow).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

We have a complicated forecast in store through next week, with
two systems forecast to impact eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa. We have several watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect for today through Saturday.

Today:

Clear skies across our area this afternoon with southerly
winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph mainly in northeast Nebraska.
Humidity this afternoon is dropping to 15 to 25 percent across
much of our area with driest areas being in northeast Nebraska
where humidity is dropping to 15 to 20 percent. The area in
northeast Nebraska, with a combination of gusty winds and very
dry conditions, has a significant threat for fires to spread so
we have a Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM tonight.

Friday:

A strong low pressure system is forecast to move into and across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Friday into Saturday. On the
front-half of this system (Friday) we will see increasing
southerly winds across our area, with the strongest winds
expected for far southeast Nebraska where we expect to see wind
gusts of 40 to 45 mph. We have issued a Wind Advisory for this
area. Elsewhere will still be windy with gusts 30 to 40 mph
likely. Meanwhile, a push of dry air will move into southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa midday Friday behind a dry line. The
driest air will be found near the Kansas state line with
humidity dropping to 15 to 20 percent, while areas elsewhere
will see the dry air arrive later with humidity dropping to 20
to 30 percent. Areas that will see several hours of dry
conditions conceding with the strong winds are likely to need a
Red Flag Warning for tomorrow afternoon. For now went with a
Fire Weather Watch to not confuse this area with an ongoing
warning in northeast Nebraska.

The third concern on Friday is the potential for severe storms.
As the dry-line moves through Friday afternoon, hi-res models
show storms developing along the leading edge of that dry air.
Soundings show elevated instability, dry air near the surface
(inverted-V), and fairly strong speed shear aloft. This suggests
significant potential for damaging winds with any storms that
develop. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced
Risk for Severe Storms westward into southwest Iowa, with a
Slight Risk remaining across far eastern Nebraska and the rest
of southwest Iowa. The primary threat highlighted is for
damaging winds with a hatched area indicating potential for
significant damaging winds of 75 mph+. CAMs show the window for
these potential severe storms is around 3-6 PM. Coverage of
storms is uncertain as it will greatly depend on how far west
the moisture can wrap into the surface Low. Drier models keep
storms fairly isolated along the dry-line, while more saturated
solutions show clusters of storms developing across our entire
area and moving northeast. If we see the drier scenario, we
could potentially see lightning start fires which spread as the
dry air moves in with strong southerly winds to fan the flames.

Friday night - Saturday:

Winds will drop off Friday evening as the surface Low moves
across our area. Of note is the depth of the surface low
forecast to drop to around 974 hPa. 974 hPa would be the 4th
lowest pressure ever recorded at Omaha/Eppley Airport, behind
Jan 10, 1962 (950.00 hPa); Feb 01, 1959 (950.10 hPa); and Mar
26, 1950 (973.90 hPa). Certainly something to watch on Friday
evening, how low we see pressure drop. As the back side of the
Low arrives overnight, we'll see northerly winds rapidly
increase, gusting 50+ mph up in northeast Nebraska, and 35 to 45
mph elsewhere.

Meanwhile, we'll see the wrap-around precipitation on the back
side of this system hold around through midnight as a band sets
up southwestward down into central Nebraska along that western
edge of the surface Low. This band will lift northeast overnight
with a changeover from rain to a rain/snow mix then tapering off
as snow expected for northeast Nebraska. Areas around Lincoln
and Omaha will be on the southern fringe of the precipitation
band and likely stay as all rain until the precipitation comes
to an end. For northeast Nebraska, we expect very light
accumulations if any, but the falling snow combined with the
strong winds could lead to brief whiteout conditions similar to
what we saw last week. If you have travel planned to northeast
Nebraska or northward Friday night into early Saturday, consider
changing your plans. It could be difficult to impossible to
see at times, especially north in South Dakota. By the end of
it all, generally less than an inch of snow is expected, mainly
north of a line from Albion to Wayne, NE.

Strong northerly winds will linger through Saturday morning,
gradually weakening Saturday afternoon, dropping off Saturday
evening. With clouds hanging around temperatures will stay
solidly in the 40s Saturday afternoon with wind chill making it
feel like mid-to-upper 30s.

Sunday-Monday:

We get a nice break with temperatures rebounding into the mid
50s to low 60s on Sunday and back into the 70s on Monday.  A
transient High builds across our area with a strong
southwesterly low-level jet that advects back in warmer
temperatures on Monday. Skies should be mostly clear both days.

Tuesday-Wednesday:

We see another system arrive Tuesday-Wednesday bringing another
chance for rain turning to at least a rain-snow mix Tuesday
night into Wednesday as we see more strong northerly winds
develop on the back side of another strong surface Low. The
Weather Prediction Center has a 10-30 percent chance for
plowable snow/sleet on Wednesday (>0.25 inches melted
snow/sleet). Ground temperatures will again play a factor as
well as how long the precipitation hangs around as temperatures
are falling. Our confidence of any plowable snow accumulations
is probably right around 10-30 percent as well. Certainly a time
period to watch for updates as we get closer to Wednesday.

Thursday and Beyond:

Confidence decreases significantly going toward next weekend as
the active pattern tends to muddle up the forecast the farther
out you go. We could potentially see another system Friday-
Saturday, but details are very uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The development of a nocturnal low-level jet is resulting in
LLWS that will continue until 14-15z Friday. Thereafter,
southerly surface winds will strengthen considerably with gusts
of 30-40 kt possible during the afternoon, especially at KOMA
and KLNK. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the area Thursday afternoon into evening; likely
affecting the terminal locations with periods of MVFR
visibilities. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ068-089>093.
     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>033-042-043.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ091>093.
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for IAZ080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
846 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141600-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
846 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

An intense weather system will move through the area Friday into
Saturday. South winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph on Friday will
switch to northwest at 45 to 60 mph late Friday night into Saturday.
Travel may be difficult for light weight and high profile vehicles.

There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for severe storms Friday
afternoon mainly between 3 and 6 PM across far eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa. The main threat with the severe storms will be
damaging winds with the potential for gusts up to 75 mph.

Extreme fire danger is expected for portions of southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa on Friday as strong winds combine with low
relative humidity. If storms don't drop much rainfall, we could see
lightning spark wildfires Friday afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

Accumulating snowfall up to 2 inches appears probable in
northeast Nebraska late Friday night into Saturday. Regardless of
snowfall amounts, any snow combined with the strong winds will
lead to very poor visibility with blowing snow and potential
travel impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight but may be
needed on Friday afternoon.