Wind Advisory 9, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

736 
WWUS76 KMTR 130435
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
835 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530-131300-
/O.CON.KMTR.HW.W.0001.250213T1100Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-
Coastal North Bay...Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains-
Northern Monterey Bay-Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
835 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible in the higher 
  elevation.

* WHERE...Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, The Marin Hills, 
  Western Sonoma County Hills, The Santa Cruz Mountains, San 
  Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National 
  Seashore, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, 
  and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are 
  possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, 
  especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind 
  and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ504-506-508-510-513>518-528-131300-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.250213T1100Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Mountains-North Bay Interior Valleys-
San Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay Interior Valleys-
Santa Clara Valley...including San Jose-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-
East Bay Hills-
Southern Salinas Valley...Arroyo Seco...and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley...Hollister Valley...and Carmel Valley-
835 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible in the higher 
  elevation.

* WHERE...The East Bay and San Francisco Bay Shoreline, Interior 
  Central Coast, The Santa Clara Valley and Eastern Hills, North 
  Bay Interior Mountains, and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk 
  for downed trees.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/mtr

524 
WWUS76 KMTR 131246
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
446 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530-132200-
/O.CON.KMTR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-Coastal
North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-San Francisco
Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
446 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible in the higher 
  elevations.

* WHERE...Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, The Marin Hills, 
  Western Sonoma County Hills, The Santa Cruz Mountains, San 
  Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National 
  Seashore, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and 
  result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. 
  Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for 
  high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils 
  will increase the risk for downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

CAZ504-506-508-510-513>518-528-132200-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Mountains-North Bay Interior Valleys-San
Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Clara
Valley Including San Jose-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay
Hills-Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-Mountains of
San Benito County And Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley
and Carmel Valley-
446 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible in the higher 
  elevations.

* WHERE...The East Bay and San Francisco Bay Shoreline, Interior 
  Central Coast, The Santa Clara Valley and Eastern Hills, North Bay 
  Interior Mountains, and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The 
  combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for 
  downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

DialH

931 
WWUS76 KMTR 132156
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
156 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530-140600-
/O.CON.KMTR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-Coastal
North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-San Francisco
Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
156 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible in the higher 
  elevation.

* WHERE...Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, The Marin Hills, 
  Western Sonoma County Hills, The Santa Cruz Mountains, San 
  Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National 
  Seashore, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and 
  result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. 
  Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for 
  high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils 
  will increase the risk for downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

CAZ504-506-508-510-513>518-528-140600-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Mountains-North Bay Interior Valleys-San
Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Clara
Valley Including San Jose-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay
Hills-Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-Mountains of
San Benito County And Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley
and Carmel Valley-
156 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible in the higher 
  elevations.

* WHERE...The East Bay and San Francisco Bay Shoreline, Interior 
  Central Coast, The Santa Clara Valley and Eastern Hills, North Bay 
  Interior Mountains, and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The 
  combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for 
  downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

RGass

604 
WWUS76 KMTR 140203
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
603 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530-141100-
/O.CAN.KMTR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-Coastal
North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-San Francisco
Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
603 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, The Marin Hills, 
  Western Sonoma County Hills, The Santa Cruz Mountains, San 
  Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National 
  Seashore, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of wind and moist soils will increase 
  the risk for downed trees.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The High Wind Warning has been replaced with 
  a Wind Advisory.

$$

CAZ504-506-508-510-513>518-528-141100-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Mountains-North Bay Interior Valleys-San
Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Clara
Valley Including San Jose-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-East Bay
Hills-Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-Mountains of
San Benito County And Interior Monterey County including
Pinnacles National Park-Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley
and Carmel Valley-
603 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The East Bay and San Francisco Bay Shoreline, Interior 
  Central Coast, The Santa Clara Valley and Eastern Hills, North Bay 
  Interior Mountains, and North Bay Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The 
  combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for 
  downed trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

JM

850 
WWUS76 KMTR 140937
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
137 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

CAZ506-514-516>518-141745-
/O.NEW.KMTR.FR.Y.0026.250215T0900Z-250215T1700Z/
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-Southern
Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-Santa Lucia
Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-Mountains of San Benito
County And Interior Monterey County including Pinnacles National
Park-
137 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 
  up to 40 mph. For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 32 
  will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Interior Monterey County and the Santa Lucia Range, Most 
  of San Benito County and the Cholame Hills in Southeast Monterey 
  County, North Bay Interior Valleys, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and 
  Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 10 AM PST this morning. For 
  the Frost Advisory, from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Cold 
  conditions will be hazardous to sensitive populations such as 
  unhoused individuals. Cold conditions can lead to hypothermia with 
  prolonged exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530-141745-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-Coastal
North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-San Francisco
Peninsula Coast-Santa Cruz Mountains-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
137 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, The Marin Hills, 
  Western Sonoma County Hills, The Santa Cruz Mountains, San 
  Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National 
  Seashore, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The combination of wind and moist soils will increase 
  the risk for downed trees.

$$

CAZ504-508-510-513-515-528-141745-
/O.CON.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
North Bay Interior Mountains-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay
Interior Valleys-Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-East Bay
Hills-Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-
137 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...The East Bay and San Francisco Bay Shoreline, The Santa 
  Clara Valley, North Bay Interior Mountains, and Northern Salinas 
  Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Flynn

590 
WWUS76 KMTR 141212
NPWMTR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
412 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

CAZ506-514-516>518-142300-
/O.CAN.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMTR.FR.Y.0026.250215T0900Z-250215T1700Z/
North Bay Interior Valleys-Eastern Santa Clara Hills-Southern
Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-Santa Lucia
Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-Mountains of San Benito
County And Interior Monterey County including Pinnacles National
Park-
412 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Interior Monterey County and the Santa Lucia Range, Most 
  of San Benito County and the Cholame Hills in Southeast Monterey 
  County, North Bay Interior Valleys, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and 
  Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Cold conditions will be hazardous to sensitive 
  populations such as unhoused individuals. Cold conditions can lead 
  to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

CAZ006-502>505-508>510-512-513-515-528>530-141315-
/O.CAN.KMTR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250214T1800Z/
San Francisco-Marin Coastal Range-Sonoma Coastal Range-North Bay
Interior Mountains-Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes
National Seashore-San Francisco Bay Shoreline-San Francisco
Peninsula Coast-East Bay Interior Valleys-Santa Cruz Mountains-
Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-East Bay Hills-Northern
Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-Northern
Monterey Bay-Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
412 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended.

$$

Flynn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1003 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

The precursor rain event continues through the morning south of the
Golden Gate. A more intense system brings the risk for flooding and
damaging winds through Thursday. A Flood Watch for the coastal
counties and a High Wind Watch for the entire region come into
effect at 10 PM tonight. The storm system clears out late Thursday
and Friday with drier conditions going into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

Current radar showing some elevated showers moving in over the
waters associated with a warm front extended along the CA coast.
The surface low is currently about 1,000 mi to our NW at a
central surface pressure of 992 mb, and is expected to rapidly
deepen over the next several hours to about 981 mb as it moves to
the SE. Still looking at a time of arrival of about 7 PM this
evening for the heavier rain for the North Bay and SF areas, a few
hours later for the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Heaviest rain rates after midnight pretty much across the board.
Flood and High Wind Watches will be evaluated later this morning
for potential areas added (flood) and upgrade to warning (wind).

Behringer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

KEY POINTS

* Precursor rainfall event continues early this morning, more
  impactful event Wed PM/Thu AM
* Flood Watch in effect 10 PM Wed to 10 PM Sat (coastal counties)
* High Wind Watch in effect 10 PM Wed to 10 AM Fri (entire CWA)
* Soils saturated after initial rain Wednesday, widespread shallow
  landslides, downed trees
* Highest impact Santa Cruz Mtns, Big Sur Coast
* High Surf Warning in effect 3 PM Thu to 3 AM Sat (Pacific Coast)

Radar returns and satellite imagery reveal widespread light
rainfall, with some regions of heavier rain rates, impacting the
region south of Marin County and the Carquinez Strait down through
the Central Coast. Rainfall totals have remained relatively modest,
with accumulations of a tenth to a quarter of an inch across the
coastal regions and a few hundredths of an inch inland. Up to half
an inch of additional rainfall is expected across the Santa Lucias,
with generally around a tenth to a quarter inch of additional
rainfall expected in the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley regions.
This additional rainfall is expected to fall before sunrise across
most of the region, with the southern half of Monterey County
remaining rather showery into the late morning hours. As the first
hit of rain moves out, today should be rather dry but cloudy, with
high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 50s for most of the
lowlands (except the North Bay coast where highs reach the low 50s).

The next storm system begins to impact the region Wednesday night,
as a deep upper level low rapidly develops off the Pacific Northwest
while a surface low strengthens to around 984 mb off Northern
California. (Peak intensification is currently forecast for around
16 mb in 24 hours, around 2-3 mb short of the bomb cyclone criteria
for a cyclone at 42N latitude, which is where the cyclone is
expected to develop.) An intense rain band is expected to develop in
the North Bay late tonight into early Thursday morning, and spread
into the Central Coast by sunrise. Given ample upper level support
from the left exit region of a 150 kt jet streak, which favors
strong rising motion in the atmosphere, rainfall rates in this
intense band will rise to 0.8 to 1.2 inches per hour. The greatest
impacts from these intense rain rates are currently expected in the
Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges, but we can't rule out brief
intense rain along the North Bay coastal ranges and San Francisco.

A Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal counties of
Sonoma, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey,
in effect from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 PM Saturday. When all is said
and done, most inland locations can expect 1.5 to 2.5 inches, less
in rainshadowed valleys, and 3 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz Mtns
and Big Sur coastal range. In addition, soils around the Bay Area
will be sufficiently saturated after tonight's rainfall to support
widespread shallow landslides Thursday morning in areas that see the
higher end rain rates. Use caution on roadways and near steep
slopes.  Current areas of most concerns for river flooding are the
Russian River near Guerneville and Mark West Creek, as well as the
San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz county. Otherwise, urban and small
stream flooding will almost certainly be an issue elsewhere
throughout the Flood Watch area.

In addition to the rainfall, damaging winds are expected with the
system, particularly along the coast and the ridgetops, with a High
Wind Watch issued for the entire forecast region from 10 PM
Wednesday to 10 AM Friday. Widespread gusts up to 60 mph range are
possible, with potential gusts in the 70-80 mph range across the
immediate coastline and the ridgetops on the coastal ranges. The
combination of saturated soils and high winds will result in the
increased possibility of downed trees and powerlines, leading to
further damage and/or power outages. There is also a slight chance
for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as colder air moves in aloft
and some clearing allows for more surface heating and consequently a
more unstable atmosphere. Outside of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, as well a few lightning strikes, no other severe
hazards are expected. Nearly straight hodographs with little low
level directional shear don't support much in the way of rotating
updrafts. An exception would be along the coast near Point Reyes and
the Sonoma coast where the lower level shear profile is a bit more
favorable to support a brief waterspout or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

The surface low moves onshore late Thursday night, bringing an end
to the widespread rain and wind. Friday and Saturday look to be
mostly dry with a few lingering showers possible early on Friday. A
dissipating shortwave comes into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday,
bringing slight rain chances to the North Bay. CPC outlooks show a
lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages and precipitation
below seasonal averages for the second half of February.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

Currently VFR but conditions will deteriorate quickly moving into
the late afternoon/evening as the incoming AR arrives. Moderate, to
at times heavy, rain becomes more likely late this afternoon/early
evening across the region with visibility and ceilings dropping to
MVFR conditions. Temporary decreases lower than what is in the TAFs
may occur if a particularly strong shower moves over the airport.
Wind shear will increase at most sites around 10-12Z but will start
to drop off around 17/18Z. Winds around 2000 ft will be between 40
to 55 knots for most sites with strong surface winds helping
decrease wind shear concerns for a few airports (OAK, HAF, SJC).
There is some uncertainty as to how low strong winds will persist,
HRRR and GFS guidance continues strong winds past through the end of
the 18Z TAFs while other sources drop winds off around 12Z. Have
continued stronger winds through the end of the TAF period but will
continue to monitor. Precipitation will transition from more
widespread to scattered by late Thursday morning. A slight chance of
thunderstorms exists in the post-frontal environment late Thursday
morning into the afternoon. TAFs will be amended as storms become
more likely across the region.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR becoming MVFR. Strong southerly winds return
late this evening and continue through the end of the TAF period.
Moderate confidence in strong winds persisting past 12Z Thursday
with low level wind shear likely from 10Z to 18Z as winds at 2000ft
will be between 50 to 55 knots. Winds start to weaken around 18Z but
remain gusty through the end of the TAF period. Rain will begin to
impact the terminal between 00Z-03Z with rain intensities increasing
overnight into Thursday morning. Visibilities/ceilings may drop
temporarily below MVFR conditions as heavier rain moves over the TAF
site.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain will start this evening, increasing in
intensity overnight, and continue through the end of the TAF period.
Strong southerly winds develop tonight and continue through the end
of this TAF period. Low level wind shear becomes likely after 15Z as
winds around 2000ft strengthen to 50-55 knots. Winds should start to
ease by late Thursday as the system continues to exit our area.
Conditions primarily remain MVFR but conditions may temporarily drop
as heavier showers move through.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025

Southwest winds increase through the day with widespread gale
conditions expected into the night with isolated storm force
gusts possible. Moderate period westerly swell will build through
Friday morning with very rough to high seas expected. Light rain
showers will continue through the day ahead of moderate to heavy
rainfall that is expected Wednesday night through Friday morning
with a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1101 PM PST Tue Feb 11 2025

A High Surf Warning is in effect from 3 PM Thursday through 3 AM
Saturday for all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell with a period
up to 15 seconds will build through Friday. As a result, west-facing
beaches will see dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet
and up to 45 feet peak waves, non-west facing beaches will see
dangerously large breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet and up to 30 feet
peak waves. Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-
threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other
waterside infrastructure, keep pets on a leash and away from the
water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Saturday evening
     for CAZ006-502>506-508-509-512-516>518-528>530.

     High Wind Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Friday
     morning for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.

     High Surf Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Saturday for
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Thursday for Mry
     Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Thursday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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