Alert archive / California / Beach Hazards Statements in 2025
Beach Hazards Statement 18, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this beach hazards statement at Nov 4, 2025, 2:41 PM PST for 6 counties in California. It took effect at Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 AM PST. It was in force for 53 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 4, 2025, 2:41 PM PST (22:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 AM PST
- Expired
- Nov 8, 2025, 9:00 AM PST
- In force
- 53 hr
- Issued by
- NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Counties City and County of San Francisco, CA, Marin County, CA, Monterey County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA, Sonoma County, CA
The radar
The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 737 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
898 WHUS46 KMTR 042241 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 241 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 CAZ006-529-530-050800- /O.NEW.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 241 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...San Francisco, Northern Monterey Bay and Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast Counties. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectfully. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-050800- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 241 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectfully. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-050800- /O.NEW.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 241 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore and San Francisco Peninsula Coast Counties. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
9 follow-up statements
895 WHUS46 KMTR 050713 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1113 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 CAZ006-529-530-060800- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 1113 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectfully. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-060800- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 1113 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectfully. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-060800- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 1113 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
410 WHUS46 KMTR 051930 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1130 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 CAZ006-529-530-060330- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 1130 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-060330- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 1130 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 10:18 AM Wednesday, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-060330- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 1130 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
404 WHUS46 KMTR 060251 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 651 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 CAZ006-529-530-061400- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 651 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-061400- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 651 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-061400- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251107T0600Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 651 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet with the highest waves up to 22 feet in favored locations. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
137 WHUS46 KMTR 060920 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 120 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 CAZ006-529-530-070200- /O.EXT.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251108T1700Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 120 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 4 AM PST early this morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-070200- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 120 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 10:58 AM Thursday, 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-070200- /O.EXT.KMTR.BH.S.0018.251106T1200Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 120 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...From 4 AM PST early this morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
692 WHUS46 KMTR 070106 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 506 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 CAZ006-529-530-071300- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 506 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 4 AM PST early this morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-071300- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 506 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-071300- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 506 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...From 4 AM PST early this morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
222 WHUS46 KMTR 071208 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 408 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 CAZ006-529-530-072300- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 408 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-072300- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 408 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-072300- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 408 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...Until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
040 WHUS46 KMTR 072059 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1259 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 CAZ006-529-530-080500- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 1259 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-080500- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 1259 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 1.1 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 11:42 AM Friday, and 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-080500- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 1259 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...Until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
616 WHUS46 KMTR 080434 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 834 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 CAZ006-529-530-081700- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 834 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, a long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...San Francisco and Monterey Bay. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PST Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$ CAZ506-508-081700- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 834 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Up to 1.2 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. * WHEN...Until 2 PM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At the San Francisco tidal gauge high tide is expected to be 0.9 ft above normal (6.7 ft MLLW) at 12:31 PM Saturday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the coast and throughout the Bay respectively. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-081700- /O.CON.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 834 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. In favored locations breaking waves could reach 25 feet. * WHERE...Coastal North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. * WHEN...Until 9 AM PST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. && $$
868 WHUS46 KMTR 081634 CFWMTR Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service San Francisco CA 834 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 CAZ006-529-530-082200- /O.EXP.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ San Francisco-Northern Monterey Bay- Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast- 834 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Minor coastal flooding. * WHERE...San Francisco, Northern Monterey Bay and Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast Counties. * WHEN...Until 2 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ CAZ505-509-081745- /O.EXP.KMTR.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-251108T1700Z/ Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore- San Francisco Peninsula Coast- 834 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING... $$ CAZ506-508-082200- /O.CON.KMTR.CF.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-251108T2200Z/ North Bay Interior Valleys-San Francisco Bay Shoreline- 834 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Minor coastal flooding. * WHERE...North Bay Interior Valleys and San Francisco Bay Shoreline Counties. * WHEN...Until 2 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Nov 4, 10:22 AM PST, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 257 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
- Wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph are forecast for portions of the North Bay, East Bay, SF Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains.
- Low potential for nuisance flooding in the North Bay, but moderate rainfall will be largely beneficial.
- Thunderstorm chances remain around 10 to 20 percent with the main hazards being pockets of heavier rainfall and enhanced outflow winds.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 4, 10:22 AM PST, 4 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1022 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
- Wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph are forecast for portions of the
North Bay, East Bay, SF Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains.
- Low potential for nuisance flooding in the North Bay, but
moderate rainfall will be largely beneficial.
- Thunderstorm chances remain around 10 to 20 percent with the
main hazards being pockets of heavier rainfall and enhanced
outflow winds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
Dense fog noted earlier this morning faded shortly after 8 AM. The
Dense Fog Advisory valid for the Salinas Valley was canceled early
as fog dissipated.
And now we wait. It's the proverbial calm before the storm. KMUX
is currently in precip mode. It's picking up a few echoes over the
Mendo/Sonoma county line. We'll keep it in precip mode for the
day, but these scout showers ahead of the main storm will actually
lift northward. As the upper low off the coast deepens the
downstream upper level jet will push north toward the PacNW. In
response, steering flow in the lower level will be SW to NE. In
other word, scout showers will inch northward. We'll to have to
wait for the cold front later this evening and tonight more
impactful rain.
No updates needed this morning. Will fine tune the forecast this
afternoon, but still looking more like a wind storm than a major
rain storm.
MM
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 257 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
(Today and Tonight)
Quiet weather to start the day today will transition to more
turbulent conditions tonight and into the day on Wednesday. High
clouds continue to filter in overhead across the North Bay and
this should curtail the threat for widespread dense fog (and
perhaps fog in general). Farther south, the lack of mid and upper
level clouds has facilitated more in the way of radiative
cooling and we're starting to see some sites dip down to 1/2 mile.
Trends will be monitored this morning for a short-fused Dense Fog
Advisory (would be the SC Mountains and Salinas Valley). Fog
should mix out rapidly by mid to late morning.
Our well advertised upper low will inch toward Northern
California through the day. As it does, it'll induce pressure
falls and tighten the surface pressure/height gradient. In
response, southerly winds will ramp up, especially after 00Z
across marine zones and adjacent coastal regions. Across the
southern Big Sur Coast, there will likely be sufficient ascent for
some WAA convection and after discussion with LOX, opted to add
in some showers.
The largest impact with this system is anticipated to be the
wind. The general timeline for winds will be from roughly 10pm
tonight through 4pm Wednesday. Over the last few days, model
guidance has come into greater agreement with regard to placement
of the greatest corridor of winds will reside. Just about all
deterministic guidance indicates that a belt of 50 to 60 knot flow
will nose in from the southwest across the Sonoma and Marin
Coastline. At the surface, our trusty MTRWRF and PG&E/SJSU WRFs
support surface wind gusts in excess of 60 mph for the Pacific
Coast north of the Golden Gate strait and I've upgraded this
region to a High Wind Warning for wind gusts of 60 to 65 mph which
aligns with the corridor of high 925mb winds. Taking an
examination at some the Extreme Forecast Index tools, there's a
very strong signal that the EPS ensemble forecast distribution is
substantially higher than the model's climatology. In fact there's
some indication that a few of the EPS ensemble members are quite
anomalous/extreme. What this translates to is a potential for
65-70mph wind gusts in spots.
Areas south of the Golden Gate are on the fringes of the
aforementioned 925mb jet max, but wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph
(and thus a Wind Advisory) are advertised for SF, the San Mateo
Peninsula, East Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains, though it's not out
of the realm of possibility that some of these areas may need to
be added to the High Wind Warning, especially if the corridor of
strongest winds shifts southward. Regardless of High Wind Warning
or Wind Advisory, individuals should secure any loose outdoor
articles/decor and anticipate driving difficulty for high-profile
and lightweight vehicles (especially on east-west oriented
roadways). In addition, there will be the potential for sporadic
power outages, particularly across the Pacific Coast near/north of
the Golden Gate.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 257 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)
Potentially enhancing winds via precipitation loading will be
pockets of moderate to at times heavy rainfall. This will be most
probable across the North Bay where instability is forecast to be
the greatest. In fact, forecast soundings and hi-res NWP indicate
meager, but sufficient amounts of MUCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg
across the North Bay and the thunder potential is largely confined
to this region and adjacent waters. The main hazard with storms
will be bursts of stronger winds and heavier precipitation. While
heavy rainfall is possible, the potential for widespread flooding
appears to be on the low side for a couple of reasons. 1) Near
surface soil moistures are running near or below normal per NASA
SPoRT output, and 2) the progressive nature of this system should
minimize the potential for training thunderstorms. Examination of
experimental flood mapping as well as the Hydrologic Forecast
Ensemble System indicates little to no responses across the main
stem rivers. That said, some of the more heftier precipitation
rates will transpire during the Wednesday morning commute and this
may result in traffic impacts as water mixes with oils in
roadways and ponding/nuisance flooding takes place in urban/poor
drainage areas. Again, the system appears that it'll remain
progressive and we don't anticipate a high potential for
stalling/training of precipitation bands.
Overall rainfall amounts remain somewhat consistent with previous
forecast iterations, though there have been some adjustments
upward in the higher terrain/favored coastal regions. North Bay
rain amounts appear that they'll still average anywhere between
0.50" in the 'rain shadowed' areas to the 1-2.5" range across the
higher terrain. Some of the more prominent North Bay Mountains may
be the recipients of more optimal upslope flow with values just
under 3". We'll need to potentially make some last minute
refinements to QPF as there are some meaningful probabilities of
over 3" amounts across coastal Sonoma County between Sea Ranch and
Bodega Bay. Farther south, rain amounts average between 0.25" to
0.75" across the Bay Area and Central Coast, with amounts over 1"
across the Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia Range, and Big Sur
Coast.
Precipitation is anticipated to taper off through Wednesday
night. Rapid clearing in the wake of the precipitation and
diminishing winds may set the stage for a decent radiation fog
event, especially across the North Bay where the heaviest rainfall
is anticipated. However, this may be modulated by lingering cloud
cover, wind speeds and/or the amount of dry air that filters in
behind a front.
The weather pattern appears that it'll remain progressive with
largely zonal flow anticipated as we round out the first full week
of November. There are some hints at a few perturbations rippling
through the flow that may give the North Bay a few opportunities
for additional light rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
Currently a mix of MVFR and VFR across the board. High clouds build
in throughout the day ahead of an incoming low pressure system. For
sites in the Bay Area - winds increase this afternoon and evening
with peak winds expected late tonight into Wednesday morning. We are
looking at widespread gusts between 25 kt to 40 kt across the Bay
Area with the strongest winds along the coastline and in areas where
terrain funneling is favored. There is the potential for stronger
gusts than currently forecast in the 18Z TAFs to develop at HAF and
SFO in particular. The bulk of the rain will reach the Bay Area
tonight and continue through tomorrow morning with drops in
visibility and ceiling heights expected. We are continuing a 10-25%
chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area during the day on
Wednesday but confidence is too low to include in TAFs right now.
Rain and strong winds will reach the Central Coast by early to mid
Wednesday morning and continue through the rest of the day.
Vicinity of SFO...Temporary MVFR CIGs expected this morning with VFR
to prevail the majority of the time. Main impact to SFO will be
strong winds starting as early as 00Z (4PM) this afternoon. Guidance
suggests winds will rapidly ramp up between 00Z-03Z with gusts to
around 34-36 knots expected this evening. Winds further strengthen
overnight with gusts to around 40 knots early Wednesday morning. The
wind forecast for Wednesday morning is on the more conservative
side. Recent WRF guidance is suggesting gusts between 45-50 knots
are possible at SFO beginning around 12Z. If hi-res models continue
to show gusts in the 45-50 kt range at SFO then the forecast wind
gusts will need to be bumped up. Initial guidance is suggesting
winds will start to ease around 20-21Z Wednesday (12PM-1PM) but if
the system slows down at all we could see stronger winds continue
for a longer period of time.
SFO Bridge Approach...Strong, gale force (>35 kt) winds are expected
across the San Francisco Bay Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR at MRY and SNS with strong winds, MVFR
CIGs, and rain returning overnight into Wednesday morning. Rain
chances increase after 12Z with showers and MVFR CIGs beginning
between 12-15Z. Winds rapidly increase after 12Z with gusts to
around 30 knots expected Wednesday morning. Winds remain elevated
through the rest of Wednesday with cold frontal passage not expected
to occur until late Wednesday/early Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1021 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025
Widespread hazardous conditions to develop this afternoon before
conditions rapidly deteriorate overnight as a low pressure system
arrives. Southerly, near gale to gale force winds with widespread
gale to severe gale force gusts tonight through tomorrow morning.
Storm force gusts are expected across the northern waters from
Point Arena to Pigeon Point. Moderate seas build, becoming rough
to very rough, tonight through late week with significant wave
heights between 10 to 16 feet expected. Rain chances increase
throughout the day with moderate to heavy rain expected overnight
tonight into tomorrow. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday with the highest chances Wednesday morning
into the afternoon. Wave heights abate and conditions improve by
this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
CAZ006-503-504-506-508>510-512-515.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for CAZ502-505.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Wednesday for
Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of
Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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www.youtube.com/nwsbayareaThe office that day
Everything else NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 1:23 AM PST | High Wind Warning | MTR | Marin, Sonoma | 39 hr |
| Nov 4, 2:14 AM PST | Gale Warning | MTR | 36 hr | |
| Nov 4, 2:14 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory | MTR | 13 hr | |
| Nov 4, 2:14 AM PST | Storm Warning | MTR | 30 hr | |
| Nov 4, 3:13 AM PST | Dense Fog Advisory | MTR | Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz | 5 hr |
Nearby
Beach Hazards Statements in California, 2025Every beach hazards statement in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.