Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-   The KMSX Radar (Missoula, MT local weather radar) will remain
    offline due to scheduled maintenance through August 9th

-   Heavy showers and thunderstorms across the region today. Some
    could be severe over north-central Idaho into southwest
    Montana. There could be some swollen streams tonight.

-   Cold and wet in the backcountry.

-   Flash flooding risk for recent burn scars, 60 percent chance at
    the Daly Creek Burn scar on Skalkaho Road, just south of the
    falls.

-   Back to summer-like heat by the weekend into early next week.

The strongest lift connected with the upper level low pressure
system over eastern Washington and north-central Idaho will track
across western Montana by this evening. The atmospheric moisture
content is around 0.75" which around 130 percent of average. This
strong lift combined with the subtropical airmass in place, will
trigger widespread moderate to heavy rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms from Idaho County into western Montana. Our weather
spotter located a few miles east of Kooskia, Idaho reported to us
that he measured 1.06" from two thunderstorms that moved through
already today(along with plenty of lightning)! Due to the threat
for heavy rain, we have issued a flash flood watch for the Daly
Creek burn scar located just west of Skalkaho Pass. The watch is
out until 8 pm.

Looking upstream at the Quillayute, Washington weather balloon
sounding from 6 am MDT this morning, the freezing level was pretty
low around 7,000 feet MSL. This contributes to how unstable this
weather system is. The system will moderate some, but it's not out
of the question that there could be snow falling this evening into
tonight down to 8,000 feet! With that said, it will be very cold
and wet in the backcountry through Friday morning, and hypothermia
could be a real threat.

As far as will any of the thunderstorms be able to get severe
today. A few of the convection-allowing-models (CAMS) have been
depicting stronger storms forming across Idaho County and
tracking east and northeast across northern Lemhi/southern Ravalli
County towards Butte through the evening hours. These storms
could produce hail larger than 0.5", wind gusts greater than 50
mph, plenty of lightning and heavy rain.

As the low pressure system moves into central Montana by midnight
tonight, wrap-around moderate rain showers with embedded thunder
will be possible across west-cetnral and northwest Montana
overnight. By Friday morning there could be widespread rainfall
amounts between 0.50" up to 1.50" from Idaho County into west-
central Montana! There is a 80 percent probability that portions
of far northwest Montana and the southern half of Lemhi County may
only receive nothing up to a few hundredths.

On Friday we'll be under cyclonic, northwesterly flow. This is a
good pattern for showers, especially in the mountains across
western Montana. The models don't depict that much instability,
but with the recent moisture and the upper levels still cool
enough, couldn't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms.

The heat will return this weekend as highs will get back into the
80s and 90s, but low 100s by Monday in the lower elevations of
north-central Idaho. With a very strong upper ridge developing
across the northeast Pacific (+600 decameters), this will leave
the door open for waves dropping south out of western Canada by
Tuesday through the rest of next week. This will bring unsettled
weather back into view. These waves could have a little bit of
subtropical juiciness with them, so can one say "rinse and repeat"
of our recent weather?

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and strength
across north central Idaho into west central Montana this
afternoon. All TAF sites have a threat for thunderstorms with the
strongest storms most likely from KGIC, KMSO, KHRF and KBTM could
be impacted by this convection during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The main threats will be lightning, brief heavy
rain, hail and wind gusts to 40 kts. Thunderstorm chances remain
into the evening with showers lingering into the overnight in
western Montana. At least patchy fog can be expected Friday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
103 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

IDZ005-007-072045-
Northern Clearwater Mountains ID-Orofino/Grangeville Region ID-
103 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Clearwater County through 145 PM PDT...

At 101 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Orofino, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Visibility one-half mile or less, half-inch hail, and winds
         in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Low visibility could result in dangerous driving
         conditions. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orofino, Teakean, Ahsahka, Dent, and Riverside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Dworshak Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 11645 4663 11633 4666 11632 4670 11604
      4648 11598 4646 11636 4647 11637 4650 11637
      4650 11645 4659 11646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 262DEG 18KT 4656 11641

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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