Wind Advisory 8, NWS Morristown, TN

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

124 
WWUS74 KMRX 151456
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1056 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-152100-
/O.CON.KMRX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Coker Creek, Neva, Trade, Hampton,
Doeville, Gatlinburg, Laurel Bloomery, Mountain City, Turtletown,
Erwin, Elkmont, Shady Valley, Ducktown, Unicoi, Big Frog
Mountain, Cades Cove, Citico, Cedar Creek, Hartford, and
Limestone Cove
1056 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Once high winds arrive, any ongoing wildfires 
  could spread rapidly Friday night into Saturday before widespread 
  heavy rains arrive Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-152100-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.250315T1500Z-250316T1200Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Alpha, Pikeville, Oak Ridge, Reliance,
Lookout Mountain, South Holston Dam, Hansonville, Sweetwater,
Andrews, Jellico, Sneedville, Etowah, Caryville, Unaka, White
Oak, Athens, Castlewood, Petros, Lone Mountain, Cagle, Dandridge,
Lone Oak, Howard Quarter, Whitwell, Martin Springs, Kyles Ford,
Tasso, Old Washington, Mount Crest, Benhams, Greeneville,
Rosedale, Dentville, Dye, Melvine, Signal Mountain, Pardee,
Oneida, Big Stone Gap, Evanston, Norma, Maynardville, Harrisburg,
Dayton, Pine Orchard, Russellville, Treadway, Abingdon,
Elizabethton, Old Cumberland, Paulette, Fincastle, Cleveland,
Clinton, Rose Hill, Dunlap, Mooresburg, Conasauga, Murphy,
Harriman, Chattanooga, Fairview, Archville, Alcoa, Kingsport,
Smokey Junction, Huntsville, Topton, Springdale, Shooting Creek,
Norris Lake, Honaker, Brasstown, Oliver Springs, Tusquitee, Eagle
Furnace, Grandview, Luttrell, Big South Fork National, Spring
City, Coeburn, Lebanon, Happy Valley, Hayesville, Bearden,
Brayton, Elgin, La Follette, Lenoir City, Royal Blue, Monteagle,
Kingston, Madisonville, Seymour, High Point, Elk Valley,
Evensville, Bybee, Knoxville, McMahan, Clear Water, Morristown,
Appalachia, White Pine, South Pittsburg, Johnson City, Loudon,
Chestnut Hill, Sharps Chapel, Cartwright, Kodak, Sevierville,
Hiltons, Bristol VA, Bullet Creek, Rockwood, Strawberry Plains,
Maryville, Jefferson City, Wise, Pigeon Forge, Sandlick, Powells
Crossroads, Hiawasse Dam, Haletown (Guild), Newport, Bradbury,
Clairfield, Arthur, Norton, Harrogate-Shawanee, Parksville, Bean
Station, Big Spring, Palio, Benton, Slick Rock, Marble, Violet,
Bristol TN, Jasper, and Lake Forest
1056 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /956 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

DGS

110 
WWUS74 KMRX 151915
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-160800-
/O.CON.KMRX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Coker Creek, Neva, Trade, Hampton,
Doeville, Gatlinburg, Laurel Bloomery, Mountain City, Turtletown,
Erwin, Elkmont, Shady Valley, Ducktown, Unicoi, Big Frog
Mountain, Cades Cove, Citico, Cedar Creek, Hartford, and
Limestone Cove
315 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Once high winds arrive, any ongoing wildfires 
  could spread rapidly Friday night into Saturday before widespread 
  heavy rains arrive Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-160800-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Alpha, Pikeville, Oak Ridge, Reliance,
Lookout Mountain, South Holston Dam, Hansonville, Sweetwater,
Andrews, Jellico, Sneedville, Etowah, Caryville, Unaka, White
Oak, Athens, Castlewood, Petros, Lone Mountain, Cagle, Dandridge,
Lone Oak, Howard Quarter, Whitwell, Martin Springs, Kyles Ford,
Tasso, Old Washington, Mount Crest, Benhams, Greeneville,
Rosedale, Dentville, Dye, Melvine, Signal Mountain, Pardee,
Oneida, Big Stone Gap, Evanston, Norma, Maynardville, Harrisburg,
Dayton, Pine Orchard, Russellville, Treadway, Abingdon,
Elizabethton, Old Cumberland, Paulette, Fincastle, Cleveland,
Clinton, Rose Hill, Dunlap, Mooresburg, Conasauga, Murphy,
Harriman, Chattanooga, Fairview, Archville, Alcoa, Kingsport,
Smokey Junction, Huntsville, Topton, Springdale, Shooting Creek,
Norris Lake, Honaker, Brasstown, Oliver Springs, Tusquitee, Eagle
Furnace, Grandview, Luttrell, Big South Fork National, Spring
City, Coeburn, Lebanon, Happy Valley, Hayesville, Bearden,
Brayton, Elgin, La Follette, Lenoir City, Royal Blue, Monteagle,
Kingston, Madisonville, Seymour, High Point, Elk Valley,
Evensville, Bybee, Knoxville, McMahan, Clear Water, Morristown,
Appalachia, White Pine, South Pittsburg, Johnson City, Loudon,
Chestnut Hill, Sharps Chapel, Cartwright, Kodak, Sevierville,
Hiltons, Bristol VA, Bullet Creek, Rockwood, Strawberry Plains,
Maryville, Jefferson City, Wise, Pigeon Forge, Sandlick, Powells
Crossroads, Hiawasse Dam, Haletown (Guild), Newport, Bradbury,
Clairfield, Arthur, Norton, Harrogate-Shawanee, Parksville, Bean
Station, Big Spring, Palio, Benton, Slick Rock, Marble, Violet,
Bristol TN, Jasper, and Lake Forest
315 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /215 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

DGS

912 
WWUS74 KMRX 160736
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
336 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-161300-
/O.EXT.KMRX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1300Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Doeville, Cedar Creek, Citico, Shady
Valley, Erwin, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cades Cove, Unicoi,
Neva, Trade, Ducktown, Elkmont, Mountain City, Limestone Cove,
Turtletown, Hampton, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Big Frog
Mountain
336 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 80 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161200-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Paulette, Hayesville, Knoxville, Signal
Mountain, South Holston Dam, Pardee, Russellville, Benton, Bullet
Creek, Petros, Coeburn, Spring City, Luttrell, Rose Hill,
Haletown (Guild), Benhams, Howard Quarter, Dayton, Oak Ridge,
Happy Valley, Monteagle, Mount Crest, Kyles Ford, Rosedale,
Rockwood, Honaker, Grandview, Bearden, Dandridge, Wise, Tasso,
Jefferson City, Maynardville, Kodak, Bradbury, Bristol VA,
Archville, Norris Lake, Castlewood, Appalachia, Shooting Creek,
Cleveland, Mooresburg, Sharps Chapel, Kingston, Old Washington,
Hiltons, Strawberry Plains, Huntsville, Powells Crossroads,
Pigeon Forge, Marble, Etowah, Murphy, Melvine, La Follette,
Dunlap, Chattanooga, Loudon, Brasstown, Palio, Unaka, Arthur,
Clairfield, Lone Oak, Maryville, Old Cumberland, Norton,
Evensville, Smokey Junction, Elk Valley, Alcoa, South Pittsburg,
Athens, Lenoir City, Jellico, Fincastle, Springdale, Sevierville,
White Oak, Hansonville, Big Stone Gap, Dentville, Bean Station,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Greeneville, Brayton, Sandlick, Harrisburg,
Harriman, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Alpha, Andrews, Big Spring,
Lebanon, Seymour, Cagle, Madisonville, Fairview, Evanston,
Oneida, Pine Orchard, Norma, Morristown, Jasper, Violet, Newport,
Topton, Caryville, Slick Rock, Reliance, Bristol TN, High Point,
Royal Blue, Cartwright, Tusquitee, Elgin, Abingdon, White Pine,
Sweetwater, Hiawasse Dam, Treadway, Oliver Springs, Lake Forest,
McMahan, Pikeville, Kingsport, Dye, Martin Springs, Whitwell,
Sneedville, Eagle Furnace, Parksville, Lookout Mountain,
Conasauga, Clear Water, Lone Mountain, Chestnut Hill, Big South
Fork National, Bybee, and Clinton
336 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 /236 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CM

632 
WWUS74 KMRX 161018
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-161200-
/O.CAN.KMRX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1300Z/
/O.EXA.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Unicoi, Big Frog Mountain, Doeville,
Ducktown, Turtletown, Shady Valley, Cades Cove, Coker Creek,
Hampton, Citico, Mountain City, Limestone Cove, Laurel Bloomery,
Cedar Creek, Trade, Erwin, Neva, Gatlinburg, Hartford, and
Elkmont
618 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161200-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Parksville, Norma, Rosedale, Hiltons,
Maynardville, Jefferson City, South Holston Dam, Monteagle,
Clairfield, Strawberry Plains, Powells Crossroads, Palio, South
Pittsburg, Old Washington, Big South Fork National, Kingsport,
Tusquitee, Signal Mountain, Evensville, Pine Orchard, Jasper, Big
Spring, Sevierville, White Oak, Evanston, Bristol TN, Lebanon,
Greeneville, Sharps Chapel, Chestnut Hill, Bearden, Oneida,
Murphy, Lenoir City, Chattanooga, Russellville, Caryville,
Hansonville, Treadway, Martin Springs, Maryville, Fairview,
Smokey Junction, Eagle Furnace, Pardee, Bradbury, Brayton, Lone
Mountain, Spring City, Abingdon, Rockwood, Jellico, Royal Blue,
Dunlap, Alcoa, Oliver Springs, Bullet Creek, Wise, Cartwright,
Seymour, Arthur, White Pine, Melvine, La Follette, Sweetwater,
Lone Oak, Clear Water, Dentville, Conasauga, Petros, Happy
Valley, Newport, Sneedville, Shooting Creek, Norton, Lake Forest,
Topton, Loudon, Archville, Morristown, High Point, Huntsville,
Elizabethton, Fincastle, Howard Quarter, Kodak, Bean Station,
Andrews, Slick Rock, Madisonville, Knoxville, Athens, Old
Cumberland, Norris Lake, Whitwell, Dayton, Paulette, Castlewood,
Haletown (Guild), Violet, Harrisburg, Big Stone Gap, Springdale,
Appalachia, Etowah, Dye, Grandview, Benhams, Brasstown, Unaka,
Coeburn, Kingston, Bristol VA, Oak Ridge, Honaker, Tasso,
McMahan, Pikeville, Lookout Mountain, Johnson City, Dandridge,
Marble, Harriman, Pigeon Forge, Rose Hill, Mount Crest, Reliance,
Elgin, Cagle, Hiawasse Dam, Luttrell, Cleveland, Hayesville,
Sandlick, Alpha, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Benton, Elk Valley,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Bybee, and Clinton
618 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 /518 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
115 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Forecast is on track this evening and have updated products. It
will be breezy on Saturday across the area, but have held off on
issuing a wind advisory on this shift since gradient wind gusts
are not the primary hazard, and we don't want this muddling the
message of severe weather (especially across our southern
counties) and potential flooding. The risk for severe weather
remains rather significant near Chattanooga late Saturday into the
early hours of Saturday night with very high shear and low
instability. The overall shear magnitude will be strong enough
that if tornadoes do occur, they will have the potential to be
strong (EF-2+). The convective mode continues to be a question
mark with the exact location of the morning convection and outflow
boundary uncertain. Recent hi-res guidance has been keeping the
southern valley drier on Saturday morning, and this will be
important to monitor as we approach the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Key messages:

1. Significant severe weather event expected for our forecast area
tomorrow night. All hazard types are on the table, including the
possibility of a strong tornado or two.

2. Flooding now looks to be a noteworthy concern given the
possibility of multiple rounds of storms. Most likely area for
flooding is going to be the far south.

3. High winds in the mountains will persist this afternoon through
tomorrow night, coupled with very dry fuels, so fire danger levels
will remain elevated.

Discussion:

A multi-faceted high impact weather event will unfold across the
southern Appalachian region tomorrow through the early morning hours
of Sunday. The most pressing matter is the severe weather, but
flooding and fire weather concerns also exist. Synoptically
speaking, a potent upper low over the plains will lift into the
upper midwest from this afternoon through late tonight, sparking
off a round of intense convection and potential for widespread
severe storms over western TN and southward into the Gulf states.
Another strong trough then ejects eastward out of southern New
Mexico during the day Saturday and will produce widespread severe
storms across Tennessee and the deep south.

Now that the overview is out of the way let's get into some details.
I will hit the most pressing concerns first and work my way down
from there.

Severe storms:

High res guidance shows a round of convection moving north into the
TN valley early tomorrow morning. This will likely be followed by a
few hours of dry conditions, then the main event tomorrow night. I
don't think the morning round of showers and thunderstorms will have
any negative effects on our severe weather chances later on though.
Dewpoints in the low 60s have already made it into middle TN and
northern AL, and high res guidance supports low 60s streaming north
into the TN Valley tomorrow evening ahead of our severe weather
event. As such, in the wake of morning convection, air mass recovery
tomorrow doesn't look like it will be an issue. In terms of
convective modes, it will probably be a mix of some spotty cellular
convection out ahead of a strong squall line. The moisture recovery
expectations place all hazard types on the table, though hail is by
far a lesser concern. Damaging winds will be the most widespread
threat due to strong wind field aloft (categorized by very high
effective shear and a low level jet in excess of 60-70kt tomorrow
evening/night). However, I must emphasize that am fairly concerned
about the tornado threat for the far southern TN valley areas,
including the Chattanooga area. Updraft helicity tracks from Alabama
into the southern TN Valley are impressive on some of the CAM
guidance. HREF ensemble max values for surface based cape tomorrow
evening as the line of convection moves into the southern counties
is forecast to be around 500 J/kg. Deterministic soundings from
Chattanooga around 00z tomorrow evening show extremely high
effective inflow layer shear and SRH values of 60kt and nearly 800
m2/s2 respectively. Storm motions are also quite impressive too,
with storm motions in the 50-60kt range. All of that to say, if
storms persist northward to our area during the late evening hours,
the chances of a strong tornado impacting our southern CWA are not
insignificant. Lastly, the tornado threat doesn't end in the
Chattanooga area, but exactly how far north the risk area extends
is not the most confident aspect of the forecast. Some central
valley areas or even places up to Morgan county on the plateau
side, could have a conditional threat into the late night hours.
This is likely to not be well understood until tomorrow some time.

Flooding:

The biggest update here is that the probabilities of seeing rainfall
amounts in excess of 4-5" or so, have really ramped up across the
southern portions of the forecast area. By far, the heaviest
rainfall from this entire system is going to occur to our west
across middle TN down into AL. However, with multiple rounds of
convection possible, there's a chance of seeing some heavy rainfall
totals. The most likely area is going to be in the south where we
will have the strong storms moving in tomorrow night with heavy
rainfall rates. Probabilistic data suggests there's a 40 percent
chance of at least 4" of rain near the TN/GA border. Went ahead
and issued a flood watch across the plateau counties, and then for
portions of the central and southern TN valley as well to line up
with neighboring offices.

Winds and Fire Weather:

Camp Creek is already gusting into the 30-40mph range, and with the
low level wind field only strengthening over the next 12-18 hours,
all of our normal windy spots should begin to see gusts in excess of
60 mph by this evening when the high wind warning starts. We had
some leftover dry air in the northeast today which has produced some
RH values less than 30 percent in gusty conditions. RH improves
tonight and tomorrow, but in coordination with fire weather partners
we have hoisted up a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow for essentially
all of our TN mountain zones. There are still ongoing fires in the
mountains and, despite increasing RH and the possibility of rain
tomorrow, the high winds will only exacerbate fire weather concerns
given the very low fuel moisture levels that are in place. Kept the
gusts to 80 mph mentioned in the warning due to a window of time
tomorrow evening where the H85 winds are maximized and most likely
to produce higher gusts. But for the most part, gusts of 60-70mph in
our downslope areas are most likely. Elsewhere, there's a chance we
need a wind advisory but that is such a secondary concern in light
of the severe weather, flooding, and fire weather issues. It's also
not a slam dunk so I feel ok with not issuing a wind advisory for
the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Key Messages:

1. Decreasing precipitation and winds later Sunday following the
cold front.

2. Cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday and especially Monday
morning with lows generally in the 30s.

3. Increasing temperature trend and dry the first half of next week,
with the next cold front not expected until Thursday timeframe.
Cooler Friday.

Discussion:

12Z Sunday or around sunrise, the cold front is forecast to be just
west of the area over middle TN. The strongest line of convection is
expected to be east of the mountains at this point as well. Showers
and maybe some residual thunder activity may accompany the tail-end
of the system as we're not expected to be that cold after the FROPA,
and we will naturally warm heading into the day Sunday and not to
mention the increasing daylight. CAPE values are also forecast in
the couple hundred J/kg range. SPC places the highest risk of severe
weather mostly east of the forecast area Day 3. The much higher
winds are expected to come down as we get into the later hours
Sunday, but may remain bit elevated in the afternoon area-wide, as
high pressure is expected to rush in behind the departing low over
New England resulting in a bit of a pressure gradient. With lowered
heights, cloud cover, and the remainder of the system over the area,
temperatures Sunday will be slightly cooler than Saturday afternoon
with lower humidity. Sunday night with the lowest placement of the
trough and following the final cold front, Monday morning may feel
cold to many with lows in the 30s and 20s over parts of the higher
terrain.

Following the coldest morning of the forecast period, highs will
range in the 60s over the southern valley, 50s pretty much
everywhere else, and 40s over the higher terrain. Things quickly
recover Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs back in the 70s, a
strengthening ridge of high pressure over the TN Valley, as well as
surface high pressure over the southeast.

Will have to see how the week evolves with the next cold front and
thus chance of precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday, because
it could be another dynamic system similar to this weekend's,
although right now models paint it a bit weaker as far as the upper
low and surface cyclone. Albeit, we are approaching astronomical
spring with a general increasing threat of severe weather for this
part of the country. Friday appears will be a repeat of Monday with
post frontal conditions; cold low temperatures and cooler afternoon
highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

First 6 hours of this TAF cycle will remain relatively quiet
outside of low level wind shear before multiple rounds of
thunderstorms will impact all airports. Low confidence on the
initial round of storms with regards to where the storms actually
develop, but if a storm hits an airport expect erratic winds and
lightning. Much stronger round of storms expected in the back half
of the TAF cycle with an incoming line of storms with the
capability of producing strong winds, hail, and possibly
tornadoes. High confidence that storms will move through overnight
Friday night, but lower confidence on the timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  58  69  38 /  90 100  50  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  59  69  36 /  50 100  70  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  57  68  35 /  50 100  70  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  58  68  37 /  20  90  90  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning through Sunday
     morning for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
     Scott TN-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
436 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-150845-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
436 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /336 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southerly winds will be increasing this afternoon and evening.
Downslope winds will be especially strong in the mountains and
foothills with gusts up to 70 mph possible tonight. See High Wind
Warning for details.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible late tonight mainly
along and west of I-75. The primary threat will be gusty winds if
storms hold together this far east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High winds will continue in the mountains and foothills through
Saturday night with winds up to 80 mph by the evening. This will
also raise concerns for the spread of any ongoing wildfires in the
region. See the High Wind Warning now in effect for more details.

A severe weather outbreak is likely across portions of the
eastern United States Saturday into Saturday night with the
greatest threat in east Tennesse being along the Cumberland
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.
Widespread and significant damaging winds are likely. There is
also a threat for tornadoes and large hail. Some details regarding
the severe weather threat remain uncertain, so stay tuned to the
forecast for additional updates.

Also, with multiple rounds of storms, there is a threat for flash
flooding by Saturday evening, especially west of Interstate 75.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this weekend with any severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding Saturday.