Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
707 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms will be isolated this afternoon south of I-40
and more scattered north of I-40. Flooding issues will be possible
mainly in locations that have recently had heavy rains.

2. A few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening may produce
gusty winds, mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast and a trough is
over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a stationary
boundary is expected to be over the Ohio Valley today. Precipitable
water values will be a little lower today around 1.75 inches.
However, flooding issues will still be possible with slow storm
movement due to light winds aloft. Southwest Virginia may get
training showers/storms this evening or overnight as development
along the boundary moves southeast, riding the ridge. Southwest
Virginia in particular has had repeated heavy rains over the past
couple of weeks. Flooding issues will likely be localized to
places that have recently received heavy rains.

A few strong to severe storms will also be possible this
afternoon/evening with CAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg. The primary
threat will be gusty winds. Coverage of showers and storms will be
more isolated south of I-40 closer to the ridge and more scattered
north of I-40 closer to the surface boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered storms will continue through much of the extended
period with a low chance of strong wind gusts and localized flooding
with the storms.

2. Hot and humid conditions persist through the period with heat
index values around 100 degrees across the Valley next week.

Discussion:

Scattered storms will continue in the afternoon/evening hours
through at least Tuesday as a lingering boundary separates high
pressure over the Great Lakes/Northeast and high pressure near the
Gulf Coast. In the upper levels, a ridge will be building into the
Central U.S. on Monday. By Wednesday, less coverage in afternoon
thunderstorms will be likely as the ridge axis moves into the
Southeast. With the surface high to the east over the Atlantic, deep
layer moisture will be present and diurnal storms can still be
expected but may be more hit and miss. Monday and Tuesday may have a
lingering threat for localized flooding mainly in locations that
already have saturated soils from recent rains. Lower afternoon
storm coverage will likely continue through the end of the week,
especially in the TN Valley.

The heat continues with highs in the 90s for the TN Valley. Heat
indices will be around 100 degrees in the Southern and Central TN
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Morning MVFR at TRI is expected to lift over the next couple of
hours with an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms being
noted northwest of TYS. Currently, TYS looks to be the main
terminal to be affected by them, but they could reach near TRI.
Additional development is still expected during the afternoon
hours with a focus on TRI and TYS. It is unclear if CHA will see
any impacts, so only a PROB30 was maintained for the time being.
Southwesterly winds less than 10 kts will persist through much of
the day. Lingering showers and storms are expected to dissipate in
the early evening hours. Overnight, additional MVFR ceilings or
even fog are possible, but it was left out of the TAFs for now
because of limited confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  74  96  74 /  40  10  50  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  74  94  73 /  50  30  50  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  73  93  73 /  60  30  60  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  70  87  69 /  70  40  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-210600-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
149 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 /1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms this afternoon and evening may produce gusty
winds and heavy downpours. Heavy rainfall over already saturated
ground and repetitive rounds of rain over the same locations may
lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Daily chances for storms will continue into early next week, with
some storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and localized
flooding. Areas that have received excessive rainfall over the
past few days will continue to be at risk for flash flooding
through at least Sunday evening.

Heat index values will exceed 100 across central and southern
Tennessee Valley locations next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of wind damage and flooding are appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VAZ006-008-201700-
Washington VA-Russell VA-
1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RUSSELL AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Saltville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abingdon, Lebanon, Glade Spring, Honaker, Damascus, Lindell, Holston,
Emory-Meadowview, Rosedale, and Konnarock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8172 3662 8192 3659 8194 3660 8201
      3693 8217 3707 8184 3704 8182 3696 8178
      3695 8182 3693 8184 3679 8170 3664 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 330DEG 18KT 3686 8192

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DH