Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
320 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight,
some of which are expected to be severe this afternoon into the
evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary severe weather threats, with confidence greatest along and
west of I-75.

2. Additional showers and storms Saturday, with a few strong to
severe storms possible with wind the primary threat along with a
lower chance for large hail.

Discussion:

Short wave energy moving through the southwest flow aloft will keep
showers and thunderstorms going into the first part of the night
across the area.  The severe threat will continue this afternoon
into the evening, with MLCAPE values this afternoon of 1000 to 2000
J/kg this afternoon, EBWD around 30 to 35 kts and mid-level lapse
rates to 6.5-7.0 C/km indicating an environment that will support
strong cells, some with rotating updrafts, that will be capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail. The threat of a tornado is
low, but the western portions of the area are in the 2% SPC tornado
threat area and this looks reasonable. In addition, localized
flooding may occur in areas that see repeated or prolonged periods
of heavy rainfall.  Most of the CAMS suggest the back side of the
current severe threat will be the line of convection that moves east
and weakens as it crosses our area this evening.

The cold front to our west will draw closer Saturday, and additional
short wave energy will be rounding the base and moving up the east
side of the upper low centered to our northwest.  We will see
additional showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The picture is
muddier for the details of how strong the storms will be, with
significant variations in the shear and convective energy
profiles from model to model. The HREF has mean MUCAPE values
peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg Saturday, and the NAM, which is
on the aggressive side but does not look unreasonable, shows EBWD
values reaching 30 to 40 kts mostly due to speed. Overall, the
marginal risk from SPC for Saturday still looks reasonable with
damaging winds the primary threat, along with a lower threat of
large hail especially across the northeast. There will also
continue to be the possibility of localized flooding in areas that
see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms decrease Saturday night, but isolated to
scattered showers and possibly a few storms especially north Sunday.

2. Cooler Sunday and Monday, then high temperatures not too far from
normal for the latter periods.

3. Increasing chances for scattered showers and storms for Wednesday
through Friday.

Discussion:

The cold front will finally push through and off to our east
Saturday night. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish
overnight, as deep layer drying moves in from the west. Models are
in decent agreement that the upper low to our northwest will linger
over the region into Tuesday, then will lift off to the northeast
with short wave ridging aloft building in Tuesday.  We will see
mainly isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder especially north closer to the upper low on Sunday, and
there may be a few showers mainly north Monday as well. Both Sunday
and Monday will see high temperatures below seasonal normals.
Tuesday looks dry as the short wave ridging builds in, with highs
near to just a bit below normal.

For the latter part of the period, models generally depict another
slow moving upper low to our west drifting east toward our area, but
the details are still very uncertain.  Overall, the trend it toward
an increase in chances for showers and storms for Wednesday through
Friday, with high temperatures near to just a bit above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Difficult to time thunderstorms at any given terminal, but
right now the probility appears to peak late this afternoon into
the evening, iwth another peak coming in late in the period mainly
CHA and TYS. Will try to cover the peak times with tempo and
prob30 thunder groups with MVFR cigs/vsby. Will also carry VCTS
all sites early in the period as there will be some scattered
convection around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  71  52  71 /  70  90  40  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  74  55  71 /  70  90  70  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  71  53  70 /  80  90  70  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  78  55  71 /  60  90  90  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-031915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 /204 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening, some of which will be strong to severe. Damaging winds
and hail are the primary concerns. Confidence in severe weather is
highest for areas along and west of Interstate 75. Additionally,
localized flooding will be possible in any locations that see
repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There's a low risk of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon,
with the primary risk being damaging winds along with a lower risk
of large hail. Additionally, localized flooding will be possible
in any locations that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy
rain Saturday into early Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed late Friday afternoon and again on
Saturday.

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