Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms this evening, with a few capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

2. Scattered to numerous showers continue overnight and tomorrow
with isolated thunderstorms.

Discussion:

Satellite shows extensive clearing has occurred across Middle TN and
the Cumberland Plateau, and cumulus clouds are developing as the
boundary layer mixes. A few taller towers are taking shape, and
this is likely to increase as midlevel lapse rates steepen with
the approach of a mid/upper level trough. By around 4 PM, we
should storms developing quickly where convection can break
through the cap, and supercells are possible given the overlap of
MLCAPE > 1200 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 70 kt across the
southern Pleateau and southern TN Valley. With low WBZ heights and
midlevel lapse rate of 7.5-8 C/km, large hail will be a threat,
and the inverted-V temp/dewpoint profiles in foreast soundings
point to a damaging wind threat as well. Remanants of storms that
are now taking shape near the MS River will cross our area later
tonight, but should lose intensity with an overnight arrival time
that will greatly reduce CAPE. With the 850-500 mb low over the
area, lapse rates will continue to support scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight into Friday. There
could be some reports of small hail at times given the very low
WBZ heights. Showers will trend downward through the afternoon as
the closed low pulls off to the east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Key Messages:

1. Possible widespread frost Sunday morning.

2. Trending dry for the weekend with temperatures increasing into
the beginning of next week.

3. Cold front Tuesday brings next chances of showers.

Discussion:

As this system departs the region early Saturday morning we could
get a very brief round of snow flurries in the higher elevations as
lingering moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere encounter
sub-freezing temperatures. Accumulations look very minor, especially
with warmer ground temperatures, but some of the peaks of the
mountains could see enough snow to make a snowball, but will
struggle to get more than an inch if the forecast verifies. Clear
skies and calm winds heading into Sunday morning will bring one more
round of frost to much of the eastern Tennessee Valley with a 2-4
hour window just before sunrise on Sunday where frost development is
favorable with temperatures dropping into the 30's.

Rapid warm up during the day on Sunday and continuing into Monday as
ridging and high pressure combine to drive temperatures up about 10
degrees warmer each day and many locations approach 80 degrees
Monday afternoon.

Warm temperatures will not last very long as the next front looks to
move through late Monday or early Tuesday. This will bring another
round of quick showers and storms, but with the fast moving front
and limited moisture availability QPF amounts remain very light,
likely less than 0.25 inches. Cooler weather behind the front with
temperatures expected to hover around the seasonal normals Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Rain at TRI and TYS at the moment will be exiting by 18Z, and
partial clearing will build in behind that. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Plateau and move
west through the evening, which will require VCTS and PROB30 for
TS and MVFR vis at all the TAF sites. Later tonight and tomorrow
morning, scattered showers will be around the area with MVFR cigs
prevailing. This will likely persist through the end of the TAF
period as an upper level low sits over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             46  62  41  63 /  60  50  20   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  47  58  40  59 /  60  50  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  59  39  60 /  50  50  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  54  38  54 /  60  50  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-111845-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
238 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 /138 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
especially across the southern Cumberland Plateau and southern
Tennessee Valley. Large hail and gusty winds will be the primary
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Light snow accumulation will be possible across the higher
elevations of the mountains on Friday night, mainly above 3000
feet.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon and evening due to
the potential of severe thunderstorms.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>