Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
701 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Key Messages:

1. A cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and storms,
especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong to severe with damaging winds the main hazard.

2. A second cold front will bring additional afternoon showers and
storms Saturday. Friday will be dry between the two systems.

3. Above normal temperatures are expected Friday. Seasonally cool
temperatures Sunday into early next week after a frontal passage.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a deep trough is still over the Eastern U.S.
stretching all the way to the GOA/FL. At the surface, a
vertically stacked low is well to the north over Ontario with a
cold front stretching from Canada into the Tennessee and Ohio
River Valleys. This active pattern will bring scattered showers
and storms mainly this afternoon and evening with more isolated
activity this morning. This afternoon will have better instability
with ML CAPE around 1000 to 1400 J/KG. Effective shear will be 30
to 35 knots, indicating that storms this afternoon may be a bit
better organized. SPC has a marginal risk for severe for our whole
forecast area. The primary threat will be gusty winds but small
hail will also be possible. This does not look like a clean
frontal passage. This front will likely stall just north of our
region.

Friday looks dry and hot with increasing POPs Friday night and
Saturday as a cold front approaches. A few strong storms seem
possible during max heating but even then ML CAPE looks fairly low
around 200 to 600 J/KG. Effective shear looks decent around 30 to 35
knots. The best forcing will be much farther north near the Great
Lakes. This will be a clean frontal passage late Saturday bringing
cooler temps and lower dew points. Also, a noticeable wind shift to
northerly winds.

Sunday through early next week looks dry with high pressure over the
Eastern U.S. and below normal temps, especially Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue to move eastward this
morning. A lull is expected by late morning before another round
of scattered showers and storms moves into the region this
afternoon and evening. Activity will be more isolated to the south
near CHA and to a lesser extent TYS. Some storms will produce
gusty winds and possibly small hail. VFR is likely outside of
thunderstorms. Although, some fog will be possible late tonight
but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  66  92  69 /  40  10   0  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  65  89  68 /  60  30   0  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  63  88  67 /  70  20   0  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  61  85  63 /  70  30   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-050545-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
143 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 /1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will increase ahead of a cold front
this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to
severe, posing a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1002 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

TNZ013-014-041445-
Claiborne TN-Campbell TN-
1002 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN
CAMPBELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

At 1002 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Zion Hill, or 11 miles south of Williamsburg, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Tazewell, Harrogate, Jellico, Springdale, Cumberland Gap, Arthur,
Indian Mountain State Park, Clairfield, and White Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8363 3639 8364 3642 8380 3643 8380
      3642 8381 3642 8383 3643 8386 3643 8388
      3650 8431 3651 8431 3651 8427 3652 8426
      3659 8426 3658 8369 3660 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 275DEG 31KT 3658 8421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH