Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
202 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorm through this
evening with showers continuing. Localized flash flooding is
possible through this evening.

2. Strong frontal boundary moves through Sunday. Scattered showers
and possibly embedded thunder again.

3. Much cooler, pleasant and dry conditions for much of next week.

Discussion:

SPC meso-analysis shows MLCAPES of around 1000 with DCAPES near
600. Little to no shear. A theta-e ridge axis is evident over the
Plateau along a surface trough axis. PWs are near 1.8 inches along
this axis. If training of showers occur, localized flash flooding
is possible. Conditions are not favorable for severe storms but
isolated gusts up to 40 mph possible.

REFS and HREF show the greatest coverage of showers and storms
across the Plateau, central Tennessee valley and southwest
Virginia through this evening.

A slow moving 925mb/Surface front-genetic forcing remains across
the region through Sunday. Strong cool front will move across the
region late tomorrow moving the theta-e ridge axis east of the
area. Until then scattered to occasional widespread showers and
embedded thunder will remain.

For Monday through next Saturday, ensemble cluster analysis and
deterministic models show a deep upper trough over the eastern
third of the nation. Below normal temperatures. much drier
airmass, and mostly dry conditions are expected. NBM probabilities
show low chance of showers across southeast Tennessee for late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Latest deterministic GFS depicts
showers as well but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be the main
concern through this evening. REFS and HREF show the greatest
coverage across TYS.

For early Sunday morning, fog and low-cloud development can be
expected. IFR/LIFR due to low ceilings is possible especially at
TRI and TYS.

A gradual improvement in flight conditions are anticipated for
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  87  63  82 /  60  20   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  85  62  80 /  60  30   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  85  59  79 /  70  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  82  59  77 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-241745-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
137 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 /1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon and
evening. Due to recent heavy rainfall and abundant moisture,
localized flash flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of flooding are encouraged this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
535 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

TNZ017-044-VAZ005-232215-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Scott VA-
535 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Grove, or near Johnson City, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Kingsport, Bristol Tn, Bristol Va, Gray, Oak Grove,
Walnut Hill, Spurgeon, Colonial Heights, and Bluff City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 8236 3635 8256 3666 8251 3662 8231
      3660 8229 3660 8222 3659 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 195DEG 11KT 3641 8243

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH