Beach Hazards Statement 3, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
152 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures to finish this week. Warming up
this weekend through next week.

- Frost possible over the interior west multiple nights this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal broad midlevel
troughing over the Great Lakes  and northeast CONUS, with a couple
of embedded features: a fairly tight surface low centered over Lake
Erie and another shortwave dropping from Northern Ontario into the
northern Great Lakes. With surface high pressure over the Northern
Plains, we remain under cool northerly flow - somewhat breezy, too,
given the tighter pressure gradient. Wind gusts around 20-25mph are
most common, but higher gusts up to 30mph have been observed at
times. Meanwhile, upslope flow and plenty of lower-level moisture is
keeping much of the central and western UP under low cloud cover,
with light rain showers and drizzle apparent on radar. This won't
amount to much by way of precipitation, with the only real hazard
being a somewhat gloomy afternoon. Temperatures are peaking only in
the upper 40s under cloudy skies, and in the lower 50s where more
breaks of sunshine are occurring (eastern UP, far western Gogebic
and Ontonagon counties).

Moving into tonight, expect to see light rain/drizzle showers linger
mainly  over the north wind upslope areas of the Keweenaw, north
central, and east; however, with weak radar returns this afternoon
reaching as far as the WI border, wouldn't be surprised to see some
sprinkles elsewhere across the area. We could even see a mix with
snow along the Huron Mountain range into the Michigamme Highlands
tonight into Friday morning as temperatures drop. However, given
that lows tonight are projected to only get down into the mid 30s in
the coldest spots, no accumulations are expected. While the moisture
will help prevent frost formation across most of the area tonight,
the exception seems to be in Gogebic County where cloud cover and
precipitation could be a little more patchy. Given the uncertainty,
will hold off on an advisory at this time.

Expect Friday to be nearly identical to today - breezy, cloudy,
lingering upslope sprinkles/showers in the northern tier of the UP.
That said, temperatures turn a couple of degrees warmer as cold air
advection ceases and light rain/drizzle showers with time as the
parent low phases eastwards away from our area. As high pressure
encroaches the area on Friday evening, expect the cloud cover to
progressively dwindle across the U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

As we head into the weekend, surface low pressure will be moving
over New England, with high pressure centered over northern Ontario
extending ridging into the Upper Great Lakes. This will keep us
under northerly flow through the weekend, but a moderating airmass
will have 850mb temperatures climbing to around 0C with a gradual
warming trend kicking off. Temperatures still start off generally in
the 30s both mornings, but highs range in the lower to perhaps mid
60s with sunny skies across much of the UP Saturday and Sunday.
Nearer to Superior, onshore flow should keep temperatures in the
50s. Meanwhile, with light winds, more breaks in the clouds, and
temperatures dropping into the mid 30s or lower in the interior-
western UP each morning, frost could become more widespread early
Saturday  and Sunday, potentially necessitating headlines in future
forecast cycles.

Our warming trend continues into next week. In this period, the
airmass at 850mb will warm to +3-4C Tuesday before cooling again
Wednesday night below zero C. This will support daytime temperatures
potentially well into the 60s across most of the UP Monday and
Tuesday, and generally in the 50s near Lake Superior. Daytime mixing
and the dry airmass Monday/Tuesday will also yield RH values dipping
into the 30s and perhaps 20s. At the moment, elevated fire weather
conditions are not expected given lighter winds...but even this
could prove problematic as lake-breeze development could cause
sudden shifts in wind direction. Following several generally dry
days, this could still be a period worth watching.

Midweek onwards, midlevel troughing or perhaps even a cutoff low
ejects out of the Plains, with an associated surface low closing off
over the central Mississippi valley and heading towards the Lower
Great Lakes. This could graze us with some rain showers by the end
of the forecast period, but confidence is low as ridging may hold
strong over us and suppress this next feature too far to our south
for any impacts to be felt here. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
continue to trend upwards, reaching the 70s across much of the UP by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Flight restrictions to continue at all TAF sites through TAF period
with plenty of low level moisture in association with a low over
southern Ontario. So far, IWD is the only TAF site that has been
able to remain at VFR levels, but it will also deteriorate to MVFR
over the next few hours where it will stay until this afternoon.
At that point, VFR conditions will return at IWD. Elsewhere,
CMX is expected to be predominantly MVFR with a period of IFR
around daybreak. Worst conditions will be at SAW where IFR is
currently prevailing and LIFR is likely in the Fri 09-15Z time
frame. Little improvement above IFR levels is expected at SAW
through the duration of the TAF period. Meanwhile, breezy
northerly winds will impact CMX and SAW starting around daybreak
with gusts up to 22 kts through this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes today moves into New England
Friday into the weekend. On the back side of this feature, primarily
north to northwest flow persists over Lake Superior at least through
the weekend. Wind gusts of 20-25kts, occasionally up to 30kts,
remain common across the eastern half of the lake today through
tonight, gradually falling back below 20kts by late in the day
Friday. Winds remain light through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
256 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

MIZ005-006-231900-
Marquette-Alger-
256 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

High swim risk for the beaches of Alger and Marquette counties
through this evening. See the latest Beach Hazards Statement and
Surf Zone Forecast for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

High swim risk is possible for the beaches of Marquette and Alger
counties Friday. Near freezing overnight low temperatures could
be seen Friday night into Saturday morning over the interior west.
See the latest Surf Zone Forecast and forecast discussion for
additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ009-231900-
Gogebic-
156 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Areas of frost are possible tonight. See the latest forecast
discussion for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Areas of frost are possible over the interior west Friday night
into Saturday morning. See the latest forecast discussion for
additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ001>004-007-010>014-084-085-231900-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Luce-Iron-Dickinson-
Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Southern Houghton-
Northern Schoolcraft-
256 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 /156 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Areas of frost are possible in the interior west Friday night into
Saturday morning. See the latest forecast discussion for
additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-231900-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
256 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 /156 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-231900-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
256 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

WFO MQT