Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

507 
WWUS43 KMPX 171938
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH BLIZZARD 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.Confidence continues to increase in a band of heavy snow developing 
across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will start 
as rain, and quickly transition to a heavy, wet snow, with snowfall 
rates of an inch per hour or greater.

In addition to the heavy snow, northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph will 
develop causing blowing and drifting snow. In south central 
Minnesota, winds gusts could exceed 45 mph, which could lead to 
whiteout conditions.

MNZ074-075-082-180345-
/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0600Z-250320T0000Z/
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-
Including the cities of New Ulm, St James, and St Peter
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Brown, Nicollet, and Watonwan Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches and impact power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the 
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MNZ063-069-070-WIZ015-023-180345-
/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
Washington-Scott-Dakota-Barron-St. Croix-
Including the cities of Hastings, Hudson, Shakopee, Rice Lake,
and Stillwater
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 
  7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota, Scott, and Washington Counties. In 
  Wisconsin, Barron and St. Croix Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093-180345-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0600Z-250320T0000Z/
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-
Freeborn-
Including the cities of Blue Earth, Mankato, Red Wing, Albert
Lea, Faribault, Le Sueur, Fairmont, Owatonna, and Waseca
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations 
  between 5 and 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, Rice, 
  Steele, Waseca, and Goodhue Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches and impact power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the 
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

WIZ016-024>028-180345-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
Rusk-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of River Falls, Durand, Eau Claire,
Ladysmith, Menomonie, and Chippewa Falls
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Rusk, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, and Pierce 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

JRB

372 
WWUS43 KMPX 180309
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1009 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH BLIZZARD 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.Confidence remains in a band of heavy snow developing across the 
region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will start as rain, 
and quickly transition to a heavy, wet snow, with snowfall rates of 
an inch per hour or greater.

In addition to the heavy snow, northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph will 
develop causing blowing and drifting snow. In south central 
Minnesota, winds gusts could exceed 45 mph, which could lead to 
whiteout conditions.

MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093-181115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0600Z-250320T0000Z/
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Faribault, St Peter, Le Sueur, Owatonna,
Mankato, New Ulm, St James, Waseca, Red Wing, Fairmont, Blue
Earth, and Albert Lea
1009 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations 
  between 5 and 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Blue Earth, Brown, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, 
  Nicollet, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Watonwan, and Goodhue Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the 
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MNZ063-069-070-WIZ015-016-023>028-181115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
Washington-Scott-Dakota-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Durand, River Falls, Hastings, Ladysmith,
Stillwater, Menomonie, Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls, Rice Lake,
Hudson, and Shakopee
1009 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota, Scott, and Washington Counties. In 
  Wisconsin, Barron, Rusk, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, 
  Pierce, and St. Croix Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

PV

331 
WWUS43 KMPX 180908
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
408 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH BLIZZARD 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.A band of heavy snow will develop across the region early Wednesday 
morning and last through Wednesday evening. This will start as rain, 
and quickly transition to a heavy, wet snow, with snowfall rates of 
an inch per hour or greater at times. Amounts around 4 to 9 inches 
are expected under the axis of heaviest snow, with isolated pockets 
up to a foot possible.

In addition to the heavy snow, northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph will 
develop causing blowing and drifting snow. In south central 
Minnesota, wind gusts could exceed 45 mph, which could lead to 
whiteout conditions. A Blizzard Warning has been issued in areas 
where there is high confidence of heavy snowfall and significant 
blowing snow impacts.

There will likely be a very tight gradient of snowfall amounts on 
the northwestern edge of the system. A Winter Weather Advisory was 
issued to cover the threat of lesser accumulations and blowing snow 
impacts. For the same reason, the southern extent of the Twin Cities 
metro and western Wisconsin remain in a Winter Storm Watch due to 
uncertainty in where the main band of heavy snow will develop.

MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093-182115-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0600Z-250320T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.250319T1000Z-250320T0000Z/
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Albert Lea, Mankato, Owatonna, New Ulm,
St Peter, Fairmont, St James, Le Sueur, Red Wing, Faribault, Blue
Earth, and Waseca
408 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Blue Earth, Brown, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, 
  Nicollet, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Watonwan, and Goodhue Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive 
  damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, 
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with 
your vehicle. Call 5 1 1 or visit 511mn.org for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ060>062-065>068-073-182115-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.250319T0900Z-250320T0000Z/
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Redwood-
Including the cities of Chaska, Hutchinson, Chanhassen, Victoria,
St Paul, Redwood Falls, Minneapolis, Blaine, Olivia, and Gaylord
408 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Anoka, Carver, Hennepin, Ramsey, 
  and Redwood Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening 
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 5 1 1 or visit 
511mn.org for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ063-069-070-WIZ015-016-023>028-182115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
Washington-Scott-Dakota-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Stillwater, Shakopee, Hudson, Rice Lake,
Ladysmith, River Falls, Chippewa Falls, Eau Claire, Menomonie,
Durand, and Hastings
408 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 
  7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota, Scott, and Washington Counties. In 
  Wisconsin, Barron, Rusk, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, 
  Pierce, and St. Croix Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

BED

809 
WWUS43 KMPX 181827
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING SOUTH WITH WINTER STORM...

.The narrow band of heavier snow has shifted south, and the gradient 
has tightened up. As a result, areas across central Minnesota will 
see less snow, so the Blizzard Warning was replaced with a Winter 
Weather Advisory for Le Sueur, Nicollet, Brown, Watonwan, Rice, and 
Goodue counties.

Areas to the south and east of those counties have a higher chance 
of seeing whiteout conditions from heavy snow and strong wind, so a 
blizzard warning remains in effect for those locations. In Pepin and 
Eau Claire Counties, the Winter Storm Watch was replaced with a 
Winter Storm Warning.

As for timing, snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will develop 
Wednesday morning and last into early Wednesday afternoon. Northwest 
winds of 30 to 40 mph will accompany the snow, with occasional gusts 
near 45 mph along I-90.

MNZ074>076-082-083-190230-
/O.CAN.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.250319T1000Z-250320T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.250319T0900Z-250320T0000Z/
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Including the cities of New Ulm, Le Sueur, St James, St Peter,
and Mankato
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 1 and 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Blue Earth, Brown, Le Sueur, Nicollet, and Watonwan 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 5 1 1 or visit 
511mn.org for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ077-078-190230-
/O.CAN.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.250319T1000Z-250320T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Rice-Goodhue-
Including the cities of Red Wing and Faribault
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 1 and 5 inches and sleet accumulations up to one tenth of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Rice and Goodhue Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Minnesota, call 5 1 1 
or visit 511mn.org for road conditions. In Wisconsin, call 5 1 1 or 
visit 511wi.gov for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ060>062-065>068-073-181930-
/O.CAN.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.250319T0900Z-250320T0000Z/
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Redwood-
Including the cities of Victoria, Redwood Falls, St Paul,
Gaylord, Hutchinson, Blaine, Chanhassen, Minneapolis, Chaska, and
Olivia
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snowfall amounts have shifted south, but gusty north winds of 30 to 
40 mph are still expected.

$$

MNZ063-WIZ015-023-181930-
/O.CAN.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
Washington-Barron-St. Croix-
Including the cities of Stillwater, Rice Lake, and Hudson
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Snowfall amounts have shifted south, but gusty north winds of 30 to 
40 mph are still expected.

$$

WIZ026-028-190230-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Pepin-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Eau Claire and Durand
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 2 and 7 inches. The highest amounts will be in the 
  southeast part of the county. Winds gusting as high as 30 to 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...Eau Claire and Pepin Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 5 1 1 or visit 511wi.gov 
for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ084-085-091>093-190230-
/O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.250319T1000Z-250320T0000Z/
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Waseca,
and Albert Lea
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 8 inches and north winds gusting 35 to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Faribault, Freeborn, Martin, Steele, and Waseca Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree 
  branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, 
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with 
your vehicle. Call 5 1 1 or visit 511mn.org for road conditions.

&&

$$

MNZ069-070-WIZ016-024-025-027-190230-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.250319T0900Z-250320T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Scott-Dakota-Rusk-Pierce-Dunn-Chippewa-
Including the cities of Hastings, River Falls, Shakopee,
Menomonie, Ladysmith, and Chippewa Falls
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 1 and 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota and Scott Counties. In Wisconsin, 
  Rusk, Chippewa, Dunn, and Pierce Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Minnesota, call 5 1 1 
or visit 511mn.org for road conditions. In Wisconsin, call 5 1 1 or 
visit 511wi.gov for road conditions.

&&

$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns Monday in south central MN,
  where highs will likely reach the low 70s.

- Heavy snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with wind gusts
  over 40 mph. Most likely area to see impactful winter weather
  will be south central and southeast MN toward central and
  northeast WI.

- Quiet weather with slightly above normal temperatures aver
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A surface ridge axis moving in has finally started to weaken the
winds, with clear skies as well. There is a shortwave moving across
NoDak that will continue east across northern MN tonight and could
result in some flurries for central MN, but the bigger story is what
comes behind this shortwave and that's another ridge with a wedge of
very mild air. EPS mean h85 temperatures Monday surge up to between
12c and 14c above normal on Monday, which will likely result highs
back into the low 70s across south central MN, with a 70 not out of
the question as far north as the Twin Cities. This will result in
some elevated fire weather conditions in south central MN as RHs dip
into the 20s, though from a fuels perspective, Monday is about
getting the fuels to recover from the precip and cold this weekend,
so the state of the fuels should act as a limiting factor in needing
fire weather headlines.

Monday night, a baroclinic zone will drop south across MN and will
become the breeding ground for low pressure expected to develop
Tuesday morning near the CO/WY border. This low is forecast to track
across the baroclinic zone on Wednesday, going from roughly northeast
KS to the central L.P. of Michigan. This follows the track of a
Plains low when it comes to local winter storm archetypes. Though
bottoming out near 990mb may not sound impressive after our previous
2 March lows went under 980mb, this is still below the 0.5
percentile for pressures in the CFS reanalysis climatology for
March. The biggest concern with this storm is that as it is moving
across KS, a strong baroclinic zone will become active, with a band
of very heavy precipitation developing. Looking at the ECMWF EFI,
just south of its QPF band, it is paralleled by a zone of CAPE values
that show up with some EFI values as well. This confirms what
conceptually what we're seeing from the models in that this will be
a convective band of snow. As such, we'll need to what for some CAMs
to get a hold of this system before confidence in where this band of
heaviest snow will setup. Eventually, we'll get a WNW to ENE
oriented band of snow that ends up being roughly 4 counties wide.
Within that band, there will be a 1.5 to 2 county wide band of
intense snowfall. How intense? Well, considering the plethora of
EPS/GEPS/GEFS members pumping out over an inch of QPF into the snow
bin, it's certainly possible we could see double digit snowfall
totals within the band. One potential limiting factor though on the
snowfall front is the bulk of this snow will come during the day,
which this time of year, can make it harder to get snow to
accumulate on the roads due to the power of sun, even with clouds.

From looking at the NBM probability for more than 6" of snow, it
maxes out at a 50% chance from Albert Lea to Stanley to the east of
Chippewa Falls and Eau Claire in WI. This zone across southeast MN
represents where models continue to point to where the highest
likelihood of seeing the heaviest snow is, but there's a 20% chance
of seeing 6" of snow as far north as a New Ulm, to Twin Cities, and
Siren, WI line, so you can't completely ignore the heavy snow threat
on Wednesday in the Twin Cities. There was a coordination call with
WPC and surrounding NWS offices about possibly issuing a watch, but
with us still being 60-72 hours out from impactful snows moving into
southern MN, us DMX and ARX opted to wait on any headlines.

After Wednesday, we'll see a more zonal flow the rest of the week
that will transition to a more northwest flow next week as a western
ridge develops. Within this zonal flow, ensemble models show a
couple of weak waves moving across the area Friday night/Saturday
and again on Sunday. The Sunday one looks a bit stronger than the
first, but even there, at worst it looks like a light mix of rain
and snow. Temperature wise, highs in the 40s and 50s may sound cold,
they'll still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR conditions persist through the period with some mid/high
level clouds moving from west to east. A 50-60 kt LLJ will
continue to extend east this morning, leading to some wind
shear for a few hours.

The main concern will be several wind shifts throughout the
period as a surface low tracks east along the North and South
Dakota borderland into north-central MN. This means increasing
SSE-erly winds tonight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead
of the low, then a gradual shift S/SW/W late morning into the
afternoon as the low moves into and through MN. By the evening,
the low will make its way ESE through WI and winds across the
region will shift out of the NW/N and weaken as the pressure
gradient loosens.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR early, MVFR late. Wind N 10-20kts.
WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-SN. Wind N 15-20G30kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
172015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another chance for snow arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday
favoring south to southeastern Minnesota and west-central
Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.