Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances persist through this evening.
  A few strong to severe storms are possible.

- Localized flooding possible due to heavy rainfall rates.

- Quiet weather to open the weekend, followed by a warming trend
  and return to daily storm chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Widespread warm advective showers and thunderstorms are
continuing to lift northeast across eastern MN/western WI. Thus
far the convective scenario has evolved as more of a hydro
threat vs. the potential severe weather scenario. As such we
have issued a few Flash Flood Warnings across central MN, where
the training of storms was the most impactful. As of 2:30 PM,
MRMS QPE shows that the heaviest rain (3-4" or so) fell along an
axis from Pope to Kanabec counties. Farther south, storms have
generally produced 1-2" of rain by way of ~1"/hr rainfall
tropical rainfall rates.

The focus for continued convective concerns will be on two
regimes, 1) the southern portion of the WAA driven storms 2)
Additional development across southern MN. The first regime is
more of a short term concern, in particular a band of strong
storms moving through Eau Claire, WI. Parameters are supportive
for an isolated tornado threat in the short term as these storms
move into central WI.

The messy nature of today's convection has cast challenges in
addressing the potential outcomes with the second convective
regime. Short term convective models have struggled with data
assimilation and are not initializing well. As such, we are
working with the conceptual model, satellite observations, and
current radar trends to piece together the forecast for the rest
of the afternoon. Latest surface analysis places a cold front
across western MN. Ahead of this boundary, visible satellite
reveals clearing, with some flat Cu indicative of capping.
We've also observed less convection/thinning of the cloud cover
across far southern MN for much of the day. Latest mesoanalysis
reveals that the relatively untapped atmosphere across south
central MN is characterized by little convective inhibition and
~3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, 0-3km shear is stronger, say
roughly 30kts. Despite marginal low-level lapse rates and the
messy convective day thus far, there is support for at least
scattered instances of damaging wind gusts (60 mph) with
convection this afternoon and evening. The greatest threat
appears to be for locations along and east of a line from
Faribault to Fairmont. Farther west, confidence in robust
convection is low (owning to the flat Cu referenced above).

Additional scattered sub-severe convection will be possible
through early Thursday. Once the front moves through, we'll turn
the page and end the week on a quiet note. High pressure should
generally keep things dry through the first half of the weekend.
By Sunday, ~597dm ridge will build over the central Great
Plains. The amplification of the ridge will place the storm
track over into the Upper Midwest, which will support both
warming temperatures (upper 80s/lower 90s) and another round of
the Ring of Fire/MCS type activity (generally Sunday through
Tuesday). By Midweek, guidance advertises ridge amplification
over the western CONUS/western Canada and Great Lakes troughing
to the east. As such, MN/WI will be in the zone of northwesterly
flow and NBM has represented this idea with cooling temperatures
(Upper 70s/lower 80s) for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A second round of thunderstorms has developed across southern
Minnesota, & these slow-moving storms are expected to continue
through the evening, generally south of a Marshall- Northfield-
Red Wing line. These storms will have the potential to become
severe, with damaging winds & hail the primary threats along
with torrential rainfall. The storms will slowly move east
across southern Minnesota through midnight, then are expected to
dissipate overnight across western Wisconsin. farther north
across central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin, isolated
showers are likely this evening but should only result in minor
& brief impacts to visibility.

Ceilings drop tonight after the showers & thunderstorms end with
borderline MVFR/IFR conditions expected into tomorrow morning.
IFR conditions are more likely at AXN/STC/RNH while our other
TAF sites are more likely to remain MVFR. Mist & patchy fog is
also likely overnight but visibility should only drop to MVFR
at worst.

KMSP...The thunderstorm threat this evening will likely remain
south of the terminal, although a few cells developing up into
the southern metro can not be ruled out. Have downgraded the
prevailing TSRA to a PROB30 for the threat this evening, with
the window for any potential thunderstorms between 00-03Z. A few
rain showers are also possible during the evening but these are
not expected to cause any impacts other than brief reductions
to MVFR/IFR visibility.

Ceilings around 1000 ft are expected after midnight & will
likely linger through the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...ETA

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

MNC013-103-240315-
Blue Earth-Nicollet-
710 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the following counties...

Blue Earth...Nicollet...

* Until 1015 PM CDT.

* At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  urban and small stream flooding over the Mankato area.

* Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour have been observed on
  radar over the south side of the city of Mankato. These heavy rain
  rates will lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Mankato, North Mankato, Lake Crystal, Eagle Lake, Skyline, and
  Minneopa State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 9392 4412 9385 4407 9419 4417 9422

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