Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Twin Cities, MN

807 
WWUS53 KMPX 170050
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
750 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MNC131-170100-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-250617T0115Z/
Rice MN-
750 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN RICE 
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for a portion of 
south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4410 9398 4415 9396 4423 9385 4419 9348
      4398 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 275DEG 26KT 4420 9389

$$


MNC013-079-161-170115-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-250617T0115Z/
Blue Earth MN-Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-
750 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT 
FOR NORTHEASTERN BLUE EARTH, SOUTH CENTRAL LE SUEUR AND NORTHWESTERN 
WASECA COUNTIES...

At 750 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Eagle Lake, or 
near Mankato, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported Ping pong ball-size hail at
         745 PM near Mankato.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
  Mankato, Waseca, Eagle Lake, Janesville, Madison Lake, St. Clair, 
  Elysian, Smiths Mill, Greenland, Alma City and Waseca Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm has produced large hail.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek 
shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a 
well-built structure.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for a portion of 
south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4410 9398 4415 9396 4423 9385 4419 9348
      4398 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 290DEG 16KT 4417 9398

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Schlatter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional thunderstorm development likely this afternoon
  across western & central Minnesota. Thunderstorms will move
  into the Twin Cities late afternoon/early evening and into
  western Wisconsin this evening.

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible capable of large hail, damaging
  winds, and a couple tornadoes this afternoon into the evening
  hours. An active pattern continues through the week with
  additional thunderstorm chances.

- Increasing signal for above-normal temperatures for the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Current regional radar mosaic shows a broken line of thunderstorms
over east-central Minnesota and isolated thunderstorms over
southeastern Minnesota. Our immediate concern is tied to the storms
over EC MN that produced damaging winds in & around St. Cloud
earlier this afternoon. These storms are moving east into a less
favorable environment as the exit MN and into W WI where the storms
should begin to dissipate. Temperatures are in the low to upper 80s
with low 70s dew points across W/C MN and upper 70s with low 70s dew
points in E MN and W WI.

Our attention turns to the next round of thunderstorms slated to
develop mid-late afternoon along & ahead of a surface cold front
across western Minnesota. A complex severe weather set up is in
place with a few key unknowns that I will try to expand on below. A
brief mesoscale analysis highlights a plume of moderate instability
3000 to 4000 J/Kg, 35 to 45 kts bulk shear, favorable low level
shear with backed southeasterly sfc winds ahead of the front over
W/SW MN. Lapse rates aren’t ideal, around 7.0 to 7.5 c/km. Another
concern is the upper & mid-level wind profile may limit the
potential for higher end severe weather. Hi-res guidance split into
two groups: two areas of convection with one in central MN & one in
southern MN but nothing in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. The
second group develops storms along the entire boundary and brings it
through the Twin Cities. There is still a large amount of
uncertainty with what unfolds this afternoon, but we are certain
we’ll see thunderstorms develop and impact C & S MN and W WI.
Furthermore, there isn’t anything that jumps out to us that would
signal which evolution is correct. There is limited capping & plenty
of instability across the area. Ultimately, we will likely see
smaller scale features influence the exact evolution that isn’t as
straightforward. Any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable
of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The
better shear environment across our central Minnesota counties will
favor the better environment for tornado potential.

Our confidence in timing has improved though. The latest hi-res runs
have trended toward a line of thunderstorms developing between 20Z-
21Z across western Minnesota that gradually builds south into
southern Minnesota by 23-00Z. Our current timing would support the
2p-4p window across our western CWA with storms moving east into the
western Twin Cities around 5 to 6pm & eastern Twin Cities metro 7 to
8pm. All storms will produce brief downpours & heavy rain with
localized flooding possible, especially for those who have had heavy
rain earlier today.

For the rest of the forecast period - the pattern will remain active
across the Upper Midwest but we’ll experience a bit of a lull
Tuesday & Wednesday as slightly drier air settles in behind the cold
front tonight into Tuesday. Storm chances increase for the end of
the work week. Temperatures will return to the 70s & low 80s through
Wednesday before warming into the 90s this weekend. Global guidance
signals an impressive mid level ridge building into the Great Lakes
region for the weekend. This should lead to the return of Summer
heat & humidity Saturday & Sunday. The building ridge will place the
Upper Midwest in the Ring of Fire-type pattern that will usher in
additional thunderstorm chances into early next week. The broad
pattern should support severe chances too, but it’s much too early
to pin those down 5 to 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Storms will be the primary TAF concern over the next few hours as a
line of discrete storms continue to move through portions of central
MN this evening. As storms approach, MVFR to IFR vsbys will be
likely with strong winds and large hail possible. Conditions will
return to VFR after these storms pass temporarily, however as we
head into the overnight some MVFR cigs will move into areas north of
a Twin Cities to St. Cloud, MN line overnight with some
northeasterly flow. Some IFR reductions will be possible as the
recent HREF has some medium probabilities (30-60%) for IFR cigs at
both KEAU and KAXN. As a result, have included some IFR cigs at
these sites. Conditions will improve to VFR towards 15z across much
of the local area.

KMSP...Discrete supercell storms currently situated west of the Twin
Cities metro area will continue to encroach on MSP over the next
couple of hours. Still plenty of uncertainty with how this will
transpire over the next hour or two as this convection is taking the
right-mover vector which should keep the bulk of this development
southwest of KMSP, aside from any left-move splits that may occur.
As a result, have kept the tempo for -tsra over the next hour.
Otherwise, VFR cigs are anticipated overnight with some low-end
probabilities (15-30% chance in the 16.18z HREF) for MVFR cigs
during the morning hours. Consequently, have included a sct020 to
address this potential, even if the bulk of these cigs should remain
northeast.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SHRA chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, slgt chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...WFO MPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
304 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
172015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
304 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with strong
to severe storms possible. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes,
and localized areas of heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday. This will result in additional chances for strong to
severe storms and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

JAW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Hail             Waconia                 44.85N 93.79W
06/16/2025  M1.25 Inch       Carver             MN   NWS Employee

            NWS Employee reported half dollar sized hail
            in Waconia.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Tornado          5 N North Mankato       44.24N 94.04W
06/16/2025                   Nicollet           MN   Trained Spotter

            Brief tornado touched down north of Mankato.
            Several trained spotters observed tornado
            touchdown.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Hail             1 SW Waconia            44.84N 93.81W
06/16/2025  M2.00 Inch       Carver             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
719 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Hail             1 SSE Victoria          44.85N 93.65W
06/16/2025  M1.50 Inch       Carver             MN   NWS Employee

            Report of a lot of hail up to ping pong size
            in Victoria.

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
724 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Hail             1 SSW Waconia           44.83N 93.81W
06/16/2025  M3.25 Inch       Carver             MN   NWS Employee

            Photo measurement provided via slack. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
729 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     Hail             1 NNW Carver            44.77N 93.64W
06/16/2025  M1.00 Inch       Carver             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

RMD